MN Transplant Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah, it's legit looking. I think we can challenge 2009 type of cold at least. I'm still not sure how much snow cover v no snow cover is impacting things etc. As far as I can tell all the raw model sfc outputs are almost always too cold.. not just the Euro. 1/16/09 was the last time that DCA stayed under 20°. High 18, low 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 1/16/09 was the last time that DCA stayed under 20°. High 18, low 11. Is that an analog for next winter being huge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Is that an analog for next winter being huge? I wish. There have only been two sub-20 days at DCA since the '94 cold snap (the other being in '96). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 0z MEX before it clears. DCA low hi and low lo last yr -- 25/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Also, Wes asked about this y-day so I cooked up some numbers. I'm prob going to write something for CWG as well. DCA: Since 1990, lows below 10: 8 on 1/17/2009, 8 on 1/10/2004, 5 on 2/5/1996, 7 on 2/6/1995, -4 on 1/19/1994Avg min low: 30 years ending 2013 - 11.3 avg / 12 medianAvg min hi: 30 years ending 2013 - 23.3 avg / 23 median Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z GFS napshots of 12z Friday and next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Any windchils for either morning Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Any windchils for either morning Ian? From 6z Tue thru at least Wed 12z it has sub zero windchills DC north. Still just below that at 18z Wed too north toward the PA border... that's as far as it's out so far. Models have already backed off a little as we close ... but still pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z GFS napshots of 12z Friday and next Tuesday Fortunately, it will be windy pre-dawn Friday, but that temperature plunge suggests pretty quick freezing of any wet spots from the slush around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thanks for the maps Ian... wonder when the last time we had Wind Chill Advisories around here (as in east of the BR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The GFS is spitting out a top-10 all-time coldest day for Minneapolis, so take the surface numbers with a huge grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The GFS is spitting out a top-10 all-time coldest day for Minneapolis, so take the surface numbers with a huge grain of salt. If DCA is lucky they might stay below 30 for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro still damn cold at 850. -30s Michigan, Ohio, W PA next Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like the GFS continues to like sub-20 highs a week from today. Today's 12z GFS looks like a high of 13 or 14 for Tuesday (IAD). 16-17ish for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 euro not that impressive for Jan 7 cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z EURO temps and a bunch of other stuff.. cool new graphix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z MEX NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z EURO temps and a bunch of other stuff.. cool new graphix KDCA_2014010112_dx_240.png 10-14 is Meh....i was looking for a 5 degree day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Does wind chill act similarly to heat index? What I mean by this is does -10 wind chill really feel like -10f would? I feel like 105 F feels hotter than HI 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 MOS for Minneapolis next week has -12 as a high. That type of cold is not a yearly occurrence up there. I think this has a chance to rival some of the great outbreaks of the 80s and 90s, at least in the Midwest. It's almost a perfect confluence of factors...bitter cold airmass aloft, massive snow field, prime time of year etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think this has a chance to rival some of the great outbreaks of the 80s and 90s, at least in the Midwest. It's almost a perfect confluence of factors...bitter cold airmass aloft, massive snow field, prime time of year etc. Based on where the models are driving the core of the cold temps, I'd imagine that the lower lakes and "traditional" Midwest would be more anomalous than the upper Midwest/Plains or further east. The really cold temps may depend on where the heavy band of snow sets up with the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So is everyone thinking the Potomac will completely freeze over? ETA: Not really familiar with super cold, being from New Orleans and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 So is everyone thinking the Potomac will completely freeze over? ETA: Not really familiar with super cold, being from New Orleans and all. That was kind of a joke.. The subtitle at least. Neither shot looks very prolonged though it's not hard to get thin ice over some sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Green Bay game will probably have temps around 3 or 4...maybe below zero...depends how quickly the cold gets there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Green Bay game will probably have temps around 3 or 4...maybe below zero...depends how quickly the cold gets there Similar to the Packers Giants NFC Championship game of a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Similar to the Packers Giants NFC Championship game of a few years ago. MOS has GB -5 at 7pm...kickoff at 4:30.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 MOS has GB -5 at 7pm...kickoff at 4:30....That sounds pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 MOS has GB -5 at 7pm...kickoff at 4:30.... Impressive. No wonder they are having a hard time selling the game out. Games in the mid 20's get old after a while-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 MOS has GB -5 at 7pm...kickoff at 4:30.... Wow that is a bit nipply, kicking field goals in that cold will be very tough. I just wish there was a little snow to go along with it and that would make a perfect game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That sounds pretty awful. SF might not be prepared for it...only cold weather game they played in all season was at WAS on 11/25 when it was mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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