CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Emotional Rollercoaster has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Emotional Rollercoaster has begun. Who is on the list? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 12 euro ens are little iffy past day 10 or so. not terrible but the PV starts to lift back N a little too far for comfort. guess we've seen that show up a few times and it's only been a temporary thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The upper left panel had a discerned PNA spike yesterday at this time. Now, all for domains spaces look like they did 3 weeks ago during the hay-day of the -EPO/-PNA... It's just like there's some persistent physical presence in the circulation that's usurping this result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 cdc.jpg The upper left panel had a discerned PNA spike yesterday at this time. Now, all for domains spaces look like they did 3 weeks ago during the hay-day of the -EPO/-PNA... It's just like there's some persistent physical presence in the circulation that's usurping this result. I noticed models retrograded and cut down the higher domains with yesterday being the beginning of it. However the AK ridging is still there. I'm no long range savant, but as the MJO wave moves east one would think the PNA should not back down the way it does. Only thing I can think of is some sort of RW train and increased STJ that develops as a result of the MJO? I mean part of me thinks this may be a typical wane, only for the models to come back. I don't know. I do think it will lead to increased storminess so that's good. However the track is up for grabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I love the way the PV keeps pinwheeling around in Canada, cold, colder coldest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I love the way the PV keeps pinwheeling around in Canada, cold, colder coldest Brutal cold without snow is like beautiful double D's on a dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I love the way the PV keeps pinwheeling around in Canada, cold, colder coldest if it stays south we are good to go...if it wobbles back and forth which is what the trend has been and where i'd lean right now (and seems to be well signaled on most guidance)... it will be up/down/up/down kind of deal i think. i'm not sure it will be cold, colder, coldest, however. of course, obviously if it lifts too far north...we are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 if it stays south we are good to go...if it wobbles back and forth which is what the trend has been and where i'd lean right now (and seems to be well signaled on most guidance)... it will be up/down/up/down kind of deal i think. i'm not sure it will be cold, colder, coldest, however. of course, obviously if it lifts too far north...we are in trouble. I corrected my post earlier, but I meant the PNA should not back down like it has...but Mother Nature doesn't care what I think. I still think ensemble guidance is too smoothed out so the op runs probably will have an idea of the pattern. If you reduce the GFS truncation and plowing into NY state of lows which probably won't be as realistic...you still get a front end snow perhaps before a mix. I think the models are going to vary from run to run, but the model bias lately has been to lift the PV out too quick. Also, note a recharge of cold in western Canada which should move east in the 11-15 day. So all in all I feel optimistic, but I wouldn't expect 40" of snow this month..lol. We can always hope though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 if it stays south we are good to go...if it wobbles back and forth which is what the trend has been and where i'd lean right now (and seems to be well signaled on most guidance)... it will be up/down/up/down kind of deal i think. i'm not sure it will be cold, colder, coldest, however. of course, obviously if it lifts too far north...we are in trouble. Maybe we can get Jayhawk to put something together like weenies sitting next to polar vortices on the bus going up and down.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I corrected my post earlier, but I meant the PNA should not back down like it has...but Mother Nature doesn't care what I think. I still think ensemble guidance is too smoothed out so the op runs probably will have an idea of the pattern. If you reduce the GFS truncation and plowing into NY state of lows which probably won't be as realistic...you still get a front end snow perhaps before a mix. I think the models are going to vary from run to run, but the model bias lately has been to lift the PV out too quick. Also, note a recharge of cold in western Canada which should move east in the 11-15 day. So all in all I feel optimistic, but I wouldn't expect 40" of snow this month..lol. We can always hope though. i'm sort of on the fence. always like seeing the big cold in Canada. that's a nice place to start from. and there's plenty of reason to think it'll be active. that said, i'm not on the wire-to-wire train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 i'm sort of on the fence. always like seeing the big cold in Canada. that's a nice place to start from. and there's plenty of reason to think it'll be active. that said, i'm not on the wire-to-wire train It's sad that you can't focus on the positives. Says a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 i'm sort of on the fence. always like seeing the big cold in Canada. that's a nice place to start from. and there's plenty of reason to think it'll be active. that said, i'm not on the wire-to-wire train It's sad that you can't focus on the positives. Says a lot. Causing all sorts of problems in here today. Maybe I need a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 OT but I thought I heard we were undergoing a SSW event. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't see that by looking at this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 18z GEFS back colder again in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I corrected my post earlier, but I meant the PNA should not back down like it has...but Mother Nature doesn't care what I think. I still think ensemble guidance is too smoothed out so the op runs probably will have an idea of the pattern. If you reduce the GFS truncation and plowing into NY state of lows which probably won't be as realistic...you still get a front end snow perhaps before a mix. I think the models are going to vary from run to run, but the model bias lately has been to lift the PV out too quick. Also, note a recharge of cold in western Canada which should move east in the 11-15 day. So all in all I feel optimistic, but I wouldn't expect 40" of snow this month..lol. We can always hope though. I followed you ... I saw that yesterday too, but I usually like to wait a day or two when a going trend is disrupted, so I waited, and then of course last night's runs really did the fuller about face. It may indeed be a falsity, who knows, but seeing the trend break toward what we've had all along, is somewhat believable. Sometimes a persistent signal is harder to break down. That said, I do see that a few GEFs members want to bring the MJO into Phase 7 -- that is also new. The majority of them keep the wave too weak to imply much forcing, though (for the time being; new night, new run though). Phil, I was also never on the wire-to-wire train. Mainly because I have never lived a winter that went that way, so ... still waiting. Even the mega 1995-1996 winter had a major break the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 OT but I thought I heard we were undergoing a SSW event. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't see that by looking at this... The warming is modeled, not verified yet... And, it is center over eastern Siberia and the GOA. These graphs you provided are scalar. Here is the modeled warm node at 50hPa as provided by CPC, for D6 -- the 0-hour is substantially cooler: Caution folks, a warm on-set is a lot different than a SSW. Moreover, not all warm nodes that erupt propagate downward, which is extremely important in the -AO correlation. It is too soon to know using these products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Man 0z gfs is an ice box for the 1st few days of 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well, not sure if it's a fluke, but it's not surprising that the ensembles came in cooler as we discussed yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 That offshore storm is a little intriguing, SREFs have increased snow probs around hours 72-84 for eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well, not sure if it's a fluke, but it's not surprising that the ensembles came in cooler as we discussed yesterday. AWD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 AWD Hopefully it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I think the biggest bias that I've seen in models right now is to lift the PV too quickly. Will be interesting to see how this goes moving forward. If you've tracked 50mb, the PV hasn't strayed to far from that level. Models have tried to lift that out too quickly as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Hopefully that monster -PNA doesn't kill us on the op run. Those days from the 5-8 have been flagged with disaster potential for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 gFS is hideous in the LR around 10-11...hopefully it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I beg folks and urge peeps not to think the GFS is right. It's an op run 10 days out with no support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I beg folks and urge peeps not to think the GFS is right. It's an op run 10 days out with no support Well it does in a way which is what we've been stating for a few days. But, I don't think anyone is taking this face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 op models have really been going back and forth in that period. wouldn't surprise me to torch for a time between arctic releases, but not to the extent of the GFS - that's just brutally ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 op models have really been going back and forth in that period. wouldn't surprise me to torch for a time between arctic releases, but not to the extent of the GFS - that's just brutally ugly. That's how I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 EPO remains heavily negative, I'd hedge on the side of colder and brief intervals of mild temps until it flips...at least get close to neutral like it did during the pre-Xmas torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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