Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 CMC @ 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 RGEM is warmer...but still has an appreciable period of snow before a transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The secondary is inland on the RGEM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looks near identical at 36hrs! No it's warmer..transitioned to rain in the city and freezing rain inland by 39 hours. Snow in the far interior. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2013121312/I_nw_r1_EST_2013121312_039.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 RGEM 36hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 RGEM supports NAM to a degree! Source? Looks warmer to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 No it's warmer..transitioned to rain in the city and freezing rain inland by 39 hours. Snow in the far interior. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2013121312/I_nw_r1_EST_2013121312_039.png ah okay. Only about a 10mile difference though. Which will be the story of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Reminds me alot of Dec 16th 1973..icestorm city and Western Nassau..Suffolk got nada That was also a serious ice storm in NE Nassau, but barely a dusting of snow fell there while NYC got 2 -3" of snow before the changeover. I assume north shore of Suffolk (at least NW Suffolk) also had an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Source? Looks warmer to me. It is warmer after the initial front end thump for the city. The low is also just inland from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If the high to the north were a little more west than progged, winds wiuld be more NE than E allowing CAD strength to increase at coast. It's the east fetch that is the problem for surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NE gets demolished on the RGEM. NE NJ goes from heavy snow to heavy ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This would be nice, but its not happening. ScreenHunter_58 Dec. 13 10.08.png Why not? Isn't the high res NAM pretty much the best in its range right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Most of the storm on the RGEM is frozen for the area. The RGEM shows it changing to rain for the end of the event. The gradient is really tight for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Most of the storm on the RGEM is frozen for the area. The RGEM shows it changing to rain for the end of the event. Agreed. Looks like a solid 2-6in for Long Island. More North and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If the high to the north were a little more west than progged, winds wiuld be more NE than E allowing CAD strength to increase at coast. It's the east fetch that is the problem for surface. For all snow, the mid levels are very important. The surface is just as important though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Agreed. Looks like a solid 2-6in for Long Island. More North and West. North and West of the area looks great on all the models. A lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Can a Christmas miracle happen? and we actually stay all frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Why not? Isn't the high res NAM pretty much the best in its range right now? The flood of WAA into the mid levels will cut down those totals. In some places, probably by more than half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 RGEM is about 3-4 hours of rain towards the end. After that, the precip shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 rgem looks just like the nam for my area , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Total snow on the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This could be a great storm for those N&W of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not saying this is exactly what's going to happen with this event because the WAA surge appears to be a bit stronger but 2/22/08 is a good example of a coastal hugger during a +AO that produced a good front end thump before the change to rain for the coast. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2008/us0222.php#picture http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm02222008.html I was in Stony Brook on Long Island for that event and the question was how much snow before the changeover. Ended up being the biggest storm of that winter and very minimal rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Total snow on the RGEM Qpf not all that different from the nam with the exception of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The RGEM has around 4" of snow in NYC before about .83 of rain arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The flood of WAA into the mid levels will cut down those totals. In some places, probably by more than half. My question is, why would a high-res short range model miss the waa factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not saying this is exactly what's going to happen with this event but 2/22/08 is a good example of a coastal hugger during a +AO that produced a good front end thump before the change to rain for the coast. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2008/us0222.php#picture http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm02222008.html I was on Long Island for that event and the question was how much snow before the changeover. Ended up being the biggest storm of that winter and very minimal rain at the end. Sent from my SCH-I535 I remember that storm clearly. My area was forecasted to get 2-4 inches before the changeover to rain. I received 6 inches of snow in total and it rained for about 20 mins ( drizzle). We were issued a Winter Storm Warning during the morning hours. The storm ended up being colder than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Qpf not all that different from the nam with the exception of the city This is 15 inches for KPOU! I dont think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 we can only hope the rain isn't heavy enough to wash away most of the snow...with any luck we could have 3-4" before the mix and change...hopefully it changes to drizzle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My question is, why would a high-res short range model miss the waa factor? Because its the cold is way overdone. Refer to Uptons discussion from this morning. Plus, the its the 4km NAM...not exactly a model to live or die by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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