December 13-14th Winter Storm

[WestCoaster]

Starting to get really excited about this here in Toronto. It's looking to be a solid 24 hours of SN with widespread accumulations around 5-7"

 

Cannot believe that screw hole near Arlington Heights, IL. I would be livid.

[A-L-E-K]

clicking around the mesoanalysis page, it sure looks like south is the way to go.

[Gilbertfly]

clicking around the mesoanalysis page, it sure looks like south is the way to go.

 

impressive PWAT's considering the tundra that's been around the last 72+ hours-ish

 

but I guess when you get pac and gulf moisture working in, it's to be expected

[harrisale]

Nice wind forecast loop for Lake Ontario, linked below. Looks like initial LE band will hit Hamilton then shift north up through Burlington to Oakville, Mississauga and maybe west end Toronto. Wind stays steady due east for quite a while.

 

Starting around noon tomorrow I expect Oakville to start really getting slammed by the LES. Fetch looks great, winds aligned all the way from the west end of the lake right to my backyard

 

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/loofs/fore_wind.shtml

 

[Powerball]

12z GFS isn't as cryptic as the 06z run.

[snowstormcanuck]

Nice wind forecast loop for Lake Ontario, linked below. Looks like initial LE band will hit Hamilton then shift north up through Burlington to Oakville, Mississauga and maybe west end Toronto. Wind stays steady due east for quite a while.

 

Starting around noon tomorrow I expect Oakville to start really getting slammed by the LES. Fetch looks great, winds aligned all the way from the west end of the lake right to my backyard

 

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/loofs/fore_wind.shtml

 

 

It'd be awesome if that happened. Band would likely lift north into Toronto.

[harrisale]

It'd be awesome if that happened. Band would likely lift north into Toronto.

 

Likely would make it over there I agree, although for a shorter duration than the more western areas.

 

Can't wait until we get in to HRRR range.

[toronto blizzard]

EC just issued a WSW for Hamilton, Burlington, and Oakville

[michsnowfreak]

12z GFS and GEM appear to be closer to 0.50" for DTW, while NAM is 0.40". So even if I apply a modest 12-1 ratio to that, its a 5-6" snowfall

[snowstormcanuck]

Likely would make it over there I agree, although for a shorter duration than the more western areas.

 

Can't wait until we get in to HRRR range.

 

Not sure. RGEM really is now a shore hugger. EURO is on its own. But with mesoscale you never really know until it's game time. 

[harrisale]

EC just issued a WSW for Hamilton, Burlington, and Oakville

 

Not specific on amounts:

 

 

10:40 AM EST Friday 13 December 2013

Winter storm watch for

Burlington - Oakville issued

Potential significant snowfall and blowing snow Saturday.

A disturbance from the Southern Plains States is forecast to track northeast towards the Great Lakes. Latest indications suggest this low will follow a path across Central Ohio Saturday to Central New York State by Sunday morning.

Snow ahead of this disturbance is expected to reach Southwestern Ontario tonight then spread northeast on Saturday. Current indications suggest a 10 to 15 cm snowfall event for many areas by Saturday night.

There is some potential for locally higher amounts of snow from this system in areas around the west end of Lake Ontario, as cold easterly winds pick up extra moisture from the relatively mild waters of the lake. Therefore a winter storm watch has been issued for these regions.

In addition, strong and gusty easterly winds will develop with the snow with reduced visibilities in snow and blowing snow.

Motorists should be prepared for poor winter driving conditions after the snow arrives by Saturday.

Please refer to your local public forecast for further details on expected snowfall amounts. Listen for updated watches and warnings.

 

[Chitown Storm]

Interesting how last night I was on the 1-2" line. Now LOT has the 6" line pretty close. I keep hearing 'south', yet the higher totals are moving north.

[Ajdos]

WILL I GET some lake enhancement from LK St.  CLAIR/??    

 

And I think we are in good shape S/E Mi..

[mississaugasnow]

Not sure. RGEM really is now a shore hugger. EURO is on its own. But with mesoscale you never really know until it's game time

Should be an interesting time tracking its movements. Do you mean it looks like the shoreline of west end Toronto (Long Branch) looks to get in on it a bit? I am hoping to see some enhanced totals here from the lake. Hopefully its able to drift enough north to get the Port Credit area 

[dmc76]

WILL I GET some lake enhancement from LK St. CLAIR/??

And I think we are in good shape S/E Mi..

Its happened before. Around 2005. Maybe? St.Clair Shores/Grosse pt area picked up 3-4"

[Ajdos]

Its happened before. Around 2005. Maybe? St.Clair Shores/Grosse pt area picked up 3-4"

Really? I rmbr a really nice storm in Dec, supposed to pick up 4-7 I got around 12"/drifts 20". Crazy storm, has almost 3"ph snowfall rate. The temp was very low tho. I think we started  in the single digits or so in the morning hours. 

[WestCoaster]

12Z RGEM disappointing. Cuts precipitation duration by about 5 hours.

[LizardMafia]

I'm thinking 5-7" for LAF based on near-climo ratios with model blend of nearly .5 to greater than 6 tenths liquid.  7" may be a tad optimistic but still within the realm of possibility and no use getting too cute.  Warning could probably be justified for LAF proper given our lack of snow so far this season but with borderline warning amounts and weekend timing, not sure we will get one.

You were right.. IND just upgraded portions of the area to WSW from WWA..  5-7"

[WestCoaster]

Not specific on amounts:

 

Amounts would need to be 10" to meet WSW criteria (given that there is no mixed precip or intense winds with this) so that is probably what they are thinking may happen.

[Snowstorms]

12Z RGEM disappointing. Cuts precipitation duration by about 5 hours.

Idk about that but it shows a decent 5-7" for the GTA. I believe 4-6" is a good call for much of the GTA.

[ILSNOW]

chicago nws cuts back northern cook and lake to 1-2 inches.

[dmc76]

Really? I rmbr a really nice storm in Dec, supposed to pick up 4-7 I got around 12"/drifts 20". Crazy storm, has almost 3"ph snowfall rate. The temp was very low tho. I think we started in the single digits or so in the morning hours.

That was the clipper on steroids in Jan of 05.

That LES off of St.Clair was seperate.

[Geos]

chicago nws cuts back northern cook and lake to 1-2 inches.

 

I was thinking if this system does go a little south, it could shift the LES more into IL. 

 

Still have 2-5" forecasted here.

[A-L-E-K]

chicago nws cuts back northern cook and lake to 1-2 inches.

 

 

smart call. hi res went south again...also paltry with LE in WI

[A-L-E-K]

I was thinking if this system does go a little south, it could shift the LES more into IL. 

 

Still have 2-5" forecasted here.

 

 

you'll be lucky to see .5, JMO

[ILSNOW]

chi update

 

.UPDATE...
1043 AM CST

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOKS TO BE PROVIDING SOME BETTER CLUES
AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SNOWFALL THROUGH TOMORROW...THOUGH IT
REMAINS A RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST DETAIL-WISE. THE PREVIOUSLY
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS NOW PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES IN A SOMEWHAT
SEPARATED NORTHERN STREAM OF FLOW. A MORE SUBTLE WAVE IS TRACKING
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. DEEPER
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
MISSOURI WAVE WITH MOISTURE ALSO STREAMING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM OF FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE NEW MEXICO LOW CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTHEAST TRAILING THE MISSOURI WAVE AS WELL.

GOING INTO THE EVENING...WATER VAPOR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS
SUPPORT A WEDGE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AND BETTER MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE IL/WI STATE LINE.
WARM ADVECTION SPREADS INTO THE AREA WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE
SPREADING SNOW NORTHWARD TOWARDS I-80 DURING THE EVENING WITH A BIT
SLOWER ARRIVAL INTO THE I-88/CENTRAL CHICAGO METRO
CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WARM
ADVECTION ALSO LOOKS TO ACT ON THE NORTHERN STREAM MOISTURE ALONG
THE IL/WI STATE LINE AND POINTS NORTH GENERATING A SECOND AREA OF
PRECIP THERE...NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER WEDGE. A PERIOD OF
WELL ORGANIZED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING.
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF LOWERED STABILITY ABOVE THE
FGEN/OMEGA WITH THE MAIN FORCING PRETTY WELL ALIGNED IN THE FAVORED
SNOW GROWTH ZONE DURING THE EVENING. AM CONCERNED THAT THERE MAY BE
A QUICK 3 OR POSSIBLY EVEN 4 INCH ACCUMULATION DURING THE EVENING
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF FORD...IROQUOIS...BENTON AND EVEN NEWTON
AND JASPER COUNTIES. GOING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...MAIN FGEN BAND
SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST WITH THE FORCING BECOMING LESS ALIGNED IN THE
FAVORED SNOW GROWTH ZONE LIKELY LEADING TO FINER FLAKES AND LOWER
SNOW INTENSITY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING AS WAA CONTINUES AND THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
INTO THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE LOW CIRCULATION LOOKS TO TRACK
FROM THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI TO UP TOWARDS TOLEDO OHIO INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY KEEPING SNOW GOING THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY POSSIBLE WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT REMAINS A BIT OF A WILD CARD. WITH THE LOW
PASSING RATHER FAR SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE EASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THEN EVENTUALLY NORTH TAKES PLACE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
LAKE-H85 DELTA TS REMAIN IN THE 11-13C RANGE DEPENDING ON WATER
TEMPERATURE WITH ABOUT A 3000 FT LAYER OF FLOW OFF THE LAKE GOING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INCREASING ABOVE
THAT. IN ADDITION..ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE IS WELL BELOW
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE IN A FAIRLY MILD LAYER. IT APPEARS THAT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR PRECIP
WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION POSSIBLE FROM THE LAKE. THE UPPER FORCING
IS BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE DGZ FOR A SHORT TIME SATURDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEST OF THE LAKE DURING THE
MORNING BUT THE QUALITY OF THE SNOW MAY NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION RATES. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

OVERALL...WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE THINKING...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE
SNOWFALL GRADIENT AND INCREASED AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTH SLIGHTLY.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED FORD/IROQUOIS/BENTON/NEWTON/JASPER
COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WITH AMOUNTS OF 5-8 INCHES
POSSIBLE...WITH ACCUMULATION RATES POSSIBLY PUSHING 1 IN/HR FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING. HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY IN TACT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IT LIKELY SEEING THE HIGHER END OF THE 3-6 RANGE AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS THE LOWER END.

[hm8]

Sref getting less decisive as the event gets closer lol... Now has a mean of 6" at dtw, but with a cluster of members between 4 and 6 and a cluster between 7 and 9

[kbotc]

So, when is ILX going to follow suit?

 

I swear they always release their warnings 2-3 hours after everyone around them have upgraded. If they hadn't been so on the ball with the Tornado Warnings, I would figure they spend a lot of time sleeping in Lincoln.

[Geos]

GGEM sure is coming in hot with moisture on the northern side.

 

 

RGEM

 

[Gilbertfly]

 

riding it like a 25 cent pony ride at K-Mart ....  In all honesty though...I told Joe in PM I am thinking 6 to 10 for LOT

 

And in terms of the "?" .... I think the trend will continue tonight for nudging precip shield north and adding QPF...I believe there will be more interaction between the kicker and SW...I have thought since the beginning that the there would be a little bit cleaner and earlier phase then what the models have been depicting over the last 48 hours...nothing bombing out by no means....but simply more/better interaction....and this scenario would help pump better QPF further north and present an even better scenario for lake enhancement then what has been shown...again, nothing bombing...but certainly a tad more amped despite the progressive nature of the set-up as a whole.

 

Models have been moving the cut off to fast and the northern pacific system too slow and weak over the last 48-72 hours....one thing that I do feel was squared away yesterday...cleaning up the polar jet interaction east of us...we'll see how it goes tonight....but that's my 2 cents...cheers

 

 

Well there was a little bit better interaction, better QPF's expanding a touch north, and still a decent shot at some lake enhancement....but it appears not enough to mix out any of the drier mid-levels.  While somewhere in LOT will likely see 6-10 inches ... my call was more for ORD...so that looks to be a swing and a miss on my part.  But I suppose it is best to wait and see how everything pans out once it's all said and done.  For the sake of not flip flopping I will stay with that range and, at the very least, begin to look for my white flag.  Better luck next time