Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Its often a good idea to go lower on QPF with these fast moving events, the models usually overdo the amounts and then start to drop them a bit inside 24 hours No doubt. NAM can be overly prolific at times. It's already cut in half from the 00z run (LOL) Will have to see though what the rest of 12z guidance does today. Maybe right around 0.20" liquid would be my best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Maybe it because you guys are all so good at what you do, but you always seem to agree with each other. There never seems to be a different opinion. Like when DT or HM or others used to post they would offer up different opinions or reasons why they didn't agree with this met or that one. Obviously many times you'll all be in agreement because it's the correct idea, but there has to be times when Scooter or Will or Ryan posts things that you don't agree with and vice versa. well...there's a ton of different answers/responses to this post. but anyway, personally, i hold their opinions and thoughts in very high regard...Dendrite's as well. when they say something or see something, i listen. and it's easy to disagree and be very civil about it. you don't have to be DT and be a complete dbag - or any handful of other folks who think they know everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah when he likes something he goes balls in. he likes this one pike south edit there looks like a bit of a sw-ne component enough to get Bos into something solid on 12z nam near noontime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Chucked Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan16m Working with @bobmaxon for the Tuesday snow forecast - accumulation is likely! chucked? there's no numbers there. he could easily have 1-2" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 WBZ on the icy ride in, 2-4 BOSs to ORH BDL, 3-6 RI Cape Prob not a bad call...low end advisory potential I-90 south with more confidence in advisory amounts around 3-4" SE CT/SEMA/SRI. That's probably where I would sit right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 No doubt. NAM can be overly prolific at times. It's already cut in half from the 00z run (LOL) Will have to see though what the rest of 12z guidance does today. Maybe right around 0.20" liquid would be my best guess. Its probably going to have a QPF bomb on its 18Z run, for whatever reason the NAM in short range for an event always seems to have one 18Z run that goes nuts and a 06Z run that drops amounts off and makes everyone run to the edge of the cliff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Its often a good idea to go lower on QPF with these fast moving events, the models usually overdo the amounts and then start to drop them a bit inside 24 hours is tomorrow a deal where under a good "band" they get a quick .40-.45 QPF while those outside it get like .15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah...this one is in and out quick. Overspreads CT mid-morning...probably out by dinnertime or sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 chucked? there's no numbers there. he could easily have 1-2" lol True..but on air this Am they going 1-3. That's semi chucked..at least arms in cocked position..if not weenie just leaving hand or at least tip tickling fingertipos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Its probably going to have a QPF bomb on its 18Z run, for whatever reason the NAM in short range for an event always seems to have one 18Z run that goes nuts and a 06Z run that drops amounts off and makes everyone run to the edge of the cliff true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm telling you guys, before the naked high 5s come out....beware of snow amounts that far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm telling you guys, before the naked high 5s come out....beware of snow amounts that far NW. Ya I'd love to see a band more NW but sounds like you need to see something change a bit to get you to buy in for the BOS-HFD corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm telling you guys, before the naked high 5s come out....beware of snow amounts that far NW. Well, weenie me out, but I feel like I'm in a good spot for this. I'll chuck 2-4" imby and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Well, weenie me out, but I feel like I'm in a good spot for this. I'll chuck 2-4" imby and run with it. You'll probably get something, but I have my doubts near BOS and down even to nrn CT possibly. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 You'll probably get something, but I have my doubts near BOS and down even to nrn CT possibly. I could be wrong though. your hood will probably get .5 while 5 miles south they get 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 You'll probably get something, but I have my doubts near BOS and down even to nrn CT possibly. I could be wrong though. See this is good. We have disagreement amongst the big 5 mets. Some have good snows..some have little to none.. I like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm telling you guys, before the naked high 5s come out....beware of snow amounts that far NW. For whatever reason in these events I have sometimes seen that funny inland SW-NE oriented band setup at least down by NYC and its way NW of where you'd expect it for a coastal type system, not sure same thing happens up in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 See this is good. We have disagreement amongst the big 5 mets. Some have good snows..some have little to none.. I like this I wouldn't be shocked at some snow to I-90..but these events are extremely tricky. Maybe like 1-3 for cstl SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 You'll probably get something, but I have my doubts near BOS and down even to nrn CT possibly. I could be wrong though. If the rest of the 12z ramps up I could see going higher but for now feel 1-3" is a good bet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 NAM fronto banding tool is going bonkers for the S Coast. image.jpg can we get an image of the latest 12z nam Fronto Banding Tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 For whatever reason in these events I have sometimes seen that funny inland SW-NE oriented band setup at least down by NYC and its way NW of where you'd expect it for a coastal type system, not sure same thing happens up in SNE There will be a fronto band for sure. If that made it's way onshore then it's easily 3-6. I have no doubts with that. For some reason I see this like Phil does...it blossoms and develops overhead, but it is fleeting and perhaps mostly offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 I would go with 1-2" BOS to HVD then southeast of there I would go with 2-4" with some lollipops near 6" if we get mesoscale banding from PVD to BOS points southeast. NAM seems to be slower with the system moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Frontal wave slows down as it intensifies before heading out. Therefore precip lingers some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This event in some ways resembles 12/5/02. DC jack but we all did on despite being too far away from the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This event in some ways resembles 12/5/02. DC jack but we all did on despite being too far away from the good stuff. Good comparison. I was in 7th grade and remember coming out of school in the unexpected fluff. What a great (cold & snowy) winter that was. Some great fluff (20:1) bombs that winter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 can we get an image of the latest 12z nam Fronto Banding Tool does not appear to be up yet. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The RGEM is in, you can see signs it wants to have some sort of mesoscale band as well, mainly down near NJ/PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 thank u will take a peak in a bit apparently that was able to sniff out the DC stuff yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Well, weenie me out, but I feel like I'm in a good spot for this. I'll chuck 2-4" imby and run with it. That will be my call. I like our spot in terms of qpf and potential fluff factor. I think if were lucky we could do 3-5..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 There is def a band there, The tool I look at pegs DC-to near NYC and soutyh coast on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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