NEG NAO Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think Monday's potential storm will lead to widespread disappointment. I hope I'm wrong. the problem is there are some posters in the main thread are falling into the same 3 day plus model trap that shows these historical solutiions (without accurate sampling) especially the NAM and GGEM and they buy into them hook line and sinker - then reality strikes in the 24 - 48 prior . Very difficult to get a 6 inch plus snowstorm in the immediate NYC metro and points south after March 15th........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 the problem is there are some posters in the main thread are falling into the same 3 day plus model trap that shows these historical solutiions (without accurate sampling) especially the NAM and GGEM and they buy into them hook line and sinker - then reality strikes in the 24 - 48 prior . Very difficult to get a 6 inch plus snowstorm in the immediate NYC metro and points south after March 15th........ The southern energy has been on shore for awhile now and the 12z NAM initialized with half of the northern energy onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think they are discussing it, not necessarily falling for it. What else are we supposed to do on a weather forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think they are discussing it not necessarily falling for it. What else are we supposed to do on a weather forum? Some people have a problem with looking at any modeling that shows a big storm more than the day before it happens. You haven't seen a single serious poster yet say that they are falling for anything. The models come out, we're going to talk about them. This is a weather forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think they are discussing it, not necessarily falling for it. What else are we supposed to do on a weather forum? +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Don't let posts from the likes of Mikethehobbyist skew your view of the forum as a whole. I think a lot of us are conservatively optimistic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Some people have a problem with looking at any modeling that shows a big storm more than the day before it happens. You haven't seen a single serious poster yet say that they are falling for anything. The models come out, we're going to talk about them. This is a weather forum. I do believe some people feel like a big one has to happen and will..just because..so they latch on to those models rather than the ones showing a less favorable solution. We're all guilty of it at some point or another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Don't let posts from the likes of Mikethehobbyist skew your view of the forum as a whole. I think a lot of us are conservatively optimistic at this point. Other than a good laugh I don't know how anyone can seriously respond to any of his posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Agreed.....it IS a weather forum with the forecasts based MAINLY on the weather models, as much as some try to say their forecasts aren't based mainly on them. I would think the discussion WOULD revolve around model solutions, especially when there is the potential for a rather significant storm here just a few days out ! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Don't let posts from the likes of Mikethehobbyist skew your view of the forum as a whole. I think a lot of us are conservatively optimistic at this point. Im excited but there is a reason why widespread 12"+ storms from DC-NYC are so rare. Im tempering it until i see the GFS/ECMWF take a step towards the more amped/snowy solutions assuming the more intense models are even correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think they are discussing it, not necessarily falling for it. What else are we supposed to do on a weather forum? it's like going to a biology forum and posting that grass is green Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Don't let posts from the likes of Mikethehobbyist skew your view of the forum as a whole. I think a lot of us are conservatively optimistic at this point. yes he was the the main character on my list - lol - also you are correct the 12Z suite of models will begin the reality stage of this event - lets see where that takes us ............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Nobody is barking for two feet of snow. People are discussing what the model shows, that's the point of this forum. I think people are being especially cautious with this event. I feel like discussing model output often gets associated with thinking that outcome will happen. I don't think anyone is falling for anything. This stuff gets stated ad nauseum every storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Nobody is barking for two feet of snow. People are discussing what the model shows, that's the point of this forum. I think people are being especially cautious with this event. I feel like discussing model output often gets associated with thinking that outcome will happen. I don't think anyone is falling for anything. This stuff gets stated ad nauseum every storm Yeah but nobody posts the euro snow maps showing 2-4" just the nam showing pinks and whites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 the main 3/17 - 3/18 thread is now 31 pages long and if you took all the nonsense/banter/one and two words /wishcasting posts out of it it would be probably closer to 20 pages - great moderation guys ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 haha, day 10 blind optimism loses again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 haha, day 10 blind optimism loses again the 12Z GFS is beginning to get accurate sampling and reality is going to have to be dealt with in the 3/17 - 3/18 thread....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 the 12Z GFS is beginning to get accurate sampling and reality is going to have to be dealt with in the main forum ....... Seriously? are you new here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I just want my half inch to get over 60" on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I just want my half inch to get over 60" on the season. btw I totally agree with your rant in the main thread. Whether we can see the model or not on our own isn't the point. Usually I wait til its done and look at it myself. But if I'm one of the people reading the thread and someone volunteers to do a pbp they should refrain from jumping the gun, exaggerating or playing favorites depending on where they live etc. and in general provide accurate information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Im glad my hopes arent high for this system since im more interested in when the warm weather gets here, you know since its march and everything and snow should be the last thing were tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Moral of the story? All the models sucked this winter and screwed us in some way. Gfs and euro show a big hit 2 weeks ago, ggem performed better, so this time around lets go with the ggem, its been hot of late and has best verification, nope now the gfs and euro get it right and ggem plays catchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I wish this winter would just end already thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Seriously? are you new here? did you see my profile ? I am old here - what is your point ? please explain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I wish this winter would just end already thank you Seriously. We'll get spring in 3 weeks then when nobody's watching bam we'll get a 4/82 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I wish this winter would just end already thank you ^ read my above post, its march and mid march now we should be tracking our first warm weather not a snowstorm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 did you see my profile ? I am old here - what is your point ? please explain reality and weenieism don't go together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I just want my half inch to get over 60" on the season. Funny, I said the exact same thing about our previous storm, thinking that a half inch was a lock and I wound up getting 0.3, so now I'm at 59.8 .... will I get my 0.2 ? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Funny, I said the exact same thing about our previous storm, thinking that a half inch was a lock and I wound up getting 0.3, so now I'm at 59.8 .... will I get my 0.2 ? lol LOL what happened to beating 95/96? I thought that was a lock yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 btw I totally agree with your rant in the main thread. Whether we can see the model or not on our own isn't the point. Usually I wait til its done and look at it myself. But if I'm one of the people reading the thread and someone volunteers to do a pbp they should refrain from jumping the gun, exaggerating or playing favorites depending on where they live etc. and in general provide accurate information. Thanks, and yup, for sure. I do appreciate that people dedicate their personal time to what they think is a good cause (and much of the time, it is a useful service), but a few individuals tend to play the "I'm a volunteer, so you can't criticize me" card, which is unfair imo. I hate to be blunt, since most of the folks posting are pleasant enough, but it's just a bit disappointing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.