IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'm not whining and being jealous-you'll note my prior post congratulating folks that got snow-I've seen enough snow here the past 10 yrs to be happy forever, so no biggie that this one is going to miss most of us.....I'm happy for the folks getting it, I'm just looking at radar and current trends and saying what I think-models have been horrible with this system, so not going with snow just because some model said it would be here by x hour.i wasn't talking about you. Nothing worse than people calling bust before models even had precip arriving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Totally different setup. This is going to redevelop into a weak coastal. That's why the precip over western PA is dying off. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I think for anyone that's concerned about NYC snows and points north and west should watch... The only reason why I said earlier that I was doubting accumulating snows north and west is because this model has much more precip shown than what Radars are currently projecting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 i wasn't talking about you. Nothing worse than people calling bust before models been had precip arriving. Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I think for anyone that's concerned about NYC snows and points north and west should watch... The only reason why I said earlier that I was doubting accumulating snows north and west is because this model has much more precip shown than what Radars are currently projecting.. Give it some time and be thankful that the low level cold air seems to be hanging tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Give it some time and be thankful that the low level cold air seems to be hanging tough. I agree with that.. Which might just be our saving grace.. The time we do see snow may be prolonged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Snowing lightly in Southern Sussex. Finally some flakes and happy for the crew down South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 I believe I was forcasted to hit 34 today.. Hasn't been above 30 yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I agree with that.. Which might just be our saving grace.. The time we do see snow may be prolonged i'm worried about ZR. I think the warm surge aloft comes in with a vengeance after 6-7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Patience is a persons best friend. All the precip from PA is going to swing in our direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threeyoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Still waiting here in Pompton Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Flurries in West Babylon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 i'm worried about ZR. I think the warm surge aloft comes in with a vengeance after 6-7pm. Some of the high spots in the interior may have to deal with some serious icing come morning. My thinking is still 1-3" for the interior with .25" icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 i'm worried about ZR. I think the warm surge aloft comes in with a vengeance after 6-7pm. Really u think we have a chance at mixing that early?... I hope not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Please stop...its not over by any means ... it is just starting ....we have a long ways to go. The real question right now is the temperature profile given the unexpected heavy snow to the south. Cold air is certainly not budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 33 and started to flurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The Nam has .25 + precip for the NYC area before it changes over. 1-3 inches looks like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Flurries in West Babylon I started seeing flurries about 30 minutes ago. Over the past 10 minutes it stopped for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Patience is a persons best friend. All the precip from PA is going to swing in our direction.We probably have another 6 or 7 hours left before rain so that at least puts us in the running to accumulate something before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 i'm worried about ZR. I think the warm surge aloft comes in with a vengeance after 6-7pm. No way....its not happening until well after midnight...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Looked outside and thought i had dandruff, but it is in fact flurrying here on staten island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 If you just look at the 850 thermal profile on the 18Z NAM and then look at the obs its changing over a bit north of that due to a warm ose at 750-800....extrapolate that out its probably snow for a decent part of the NYC metro til 03Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I started seeing flurries about 30 minutes ago. Over the past 10 minutes it stopped for some reason.Flurrying every now and again here in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 models are not handling this correctly ...so best thing to do is really nowcasting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Light snow here in Montville TWP (North of Parsippany). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 snow picking up here in edison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 models are not handling this correctly ...so best thing to do is really nowcasting... Some are doing okay at some points and then wrong at others, nothing really handling it well straight through, the HRRR/RAP were not doing well this morning, then they were spot on for a few hours now they're wrong again...neither is seeing any of this snow moving in from EPA in NRN NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Really u think we have a chance at mixing that early?... I hope not lol No, I think that the changeover should begin around that time from south to north. I will say that it's colder at this hour so far at the surface than any model had it. Most of the modeling had the boundary NW of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 looking at the bigger picture - make your own determinations this one is hard to forecast occasional snow flurry here in Northern Middlesex County NJ http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Nothing yet here in Cliffside Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Anyone from West Milford south should be snowing before 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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