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December Banter Thread

H2O

By H2O,
in Mid Atlantic

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

I think the public prefers that you give them a single forecast scenario and attach a confidence value to the forecast.  Listing all the possible scenarios and attaching somewhat arbitrary probabilities (they can never be verified since it is a single event we are measuring) just seems to muddy the waters for most of the public.  At least that's the sense I get from the majority of the public.  The probabilistic forecast is better for city planners and educated weather weenies than the general public, IMHO.  The average joe doesn't care about all the other scenarios.  They want to know what the weather is gonna be not the 3 different things it "might" be. And the I know for a fact, the general public doesn't want to hear about how hard it is to forecast the weather, lol.

 

Naturally any system or method can be abused where its usefulness becomes obsolete. As you get closer to the event, your range of most likely outcomes shouldn't be extreme enough that the public cannot understand the forecast. So, in that case, no I'm not listing all possible scenarios.

 

As for the bolded, the confidence "value"  IS the "arbitrary probabilities" you're so sure the public wouldn't understand.

 

Your understanding of probabilistic forecasting is clearly wrong, evident by your statement about verification. So, perhaps you are right should someone like you be representative of the general public. But we can do this anecdote dance all day really. I know plenty of non-mets who understand very well how to interpret this stuff.

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kurtstack

kurtstack

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I think the public prefers that you give them a single forecast scenario and attach a confidence value to the forecast. Listing all the possible scenarios and attaching somewhat arbitrary probabilities (they can never be verified since it is a single event we are measuring) just seems to muddy the waters for most of the public. At least that's the sense I get from the majority of the public. The probabilistic forecast is better for city planners and educated weather weenies than the general public, IMHO. The average joe doesn't care about all the other scenarios. They want to know what the weather is gonna be not the 3 different things it "might" be. And the I know for a fact, the general public doesn't want to hear about how hard it is to forecast the weather, lol.

Naturally any system or method can be abused where its usefulness becomes obsolete. As you get closer to the event, your range of most likely outcomes shouldn't be extreme enough that the public cannot understand the forecast. So, in that case, no I'm not listing all possible scenarios.

As for the bolded, the confidence "value" IS the "arbitrary probabilities" you're so sure the public wouldn't understand.

Your understanding of probabilistic forecasting is clearly wrong, evident by your statement about verification. So, perhaps you are right should someone like you be representative of the general public. But we can do this anecdote dance all day really. I know plenty of non-mets who understand very well how to interpret this stuff.

Using probability is fine but using scenarios is what causes problems. I generally think the single scenario forecast with a level of certainty attached is better representation of the forecaster whereas attaching exact probabilities to a few scenarios implies the probabilities are in fact certain or definitive when the probabilities themselves are debatable from one forecaster to the next since there is no mathematical formula to arriving at those probabilities. I actually am speaking for the general public as a whole. I myself am fine with probabilistic scenario forecasts because I know they are just a forecasters best guess at the outcomes given the data at that point in time. Anyway, most non weather geek general public would want one forecast based on what is most likely to occur so the forecast can be evaluated afterward. to each their own I guess. I still appreciate probabilistic scenario forecasts myself.

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DCAlexandria

DCAlexandria

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IF THIS IS CORRECT......THAN WE ARE SCREWED!! 12Z CMC(Canadian Model) MAKES A MAJOR SHIFT EAST, VERIFIES THE 12Z GFS(American Model) EASTWARD SHIFT, PRECIP AXIS IS NOW OVER ROANOKE, NOT IN WVA. STORM STARTS AT HOUR 47 AND LAST UNTIL HOUR 73, 26HOURS OF ICE, NO TRNASITION TO RAIN UNTIL HOUR 74 AS THE STORM EXITS. ALL OF CENTRAL/WESTERN VA FOR 26HOURS EXPERIENCES FROZEN PRECIP. DUE TO THE EASTWARD SHIFT, AREAS EAST OF I95 TO WILLIAMSBURG/CHARLESCITY/WAKEFIELD WILL SEE A SIGNIFI...CANT ICING, FIRST 10-12HOURS OF THE STORM, BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. OVERALL, THE 12Z CMC IS COLDER, AND CUTS THE SNOW THREAT OUT OF NOVA, HOWEVER 2-4IN IS POSSIBLE, AT THE MOST. THIS PARTICULAR RUN EXTENDS THE FREEZING RAIN DURATION BY 2-4HOURS, ABOUT 16-18HOURS OF STRAIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH NO SLEET MIXED IN. IN THIS IMAGE, NOTICE HOUR 67 ON THE LEFT AND HOUR 68, NOTICE HOW THE BULK OF HEAVY ICE IS EAST OF ROANOKE AND LYNCHBURG, OVER FARMVILLE/RIC/TRICITIES. ROANOKE AND POINTS WEST WERE SLAMMED FOR MOST OF THE STORM UNTIL ABOUT HOUR 60-63 AS THE HEAVY PRECIP SHIFTS EAST. THIS IS THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR CENTRAL VA...............................MAJOR ICE STORM, POTENTIALLY HISTORIC/CRIPPLING NOW EXPECTED BASED ON 12Z CMC AND 12Z GFS RUNS**** Thanks to WxSynopsis

 

 

 

DOOMED!

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sauss06

sauss06

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Posted

Quote

 
IF THIS IS CORRECT......THAN WE ARE SCREWED!! 12Z CMC(Canadian Model) MAKES A MAJOR SHIFT EAST, VERIFIES THE 12Z GFS(American Model) EASTWARD SHIFT, PRECIP AXIS IS NOW OVER ROANOKE, NOT IN WVA. STORM STARTS AT HOUR 47 AND LAST UNTIL HOUR 73, 26HOURS OF ICE, NO TRNASITION TO RAIN UNTIL HOUR 74 AS THE STORM EXITS. ALL OF CENTRAL/WESTERN VA FOR 26HOURS EXPERIENCES FROZEN PRECIP. DUE TO THE EASTWARD SHIFT, AREAS EAST OF I95 TO WILLIAMSBURG/CHARLESCITY/WAKEFIELD WILL SEE A SIGNIFI...CANT ICING, FIRST 10-12HOURS OF THE STORM, BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. OVERALL, THE 12Z CMC IS COLDER, AND CUTS THE SNOW THREAT OUT OF NOVA, HOWEVER 2-4IN IS POSSIBLE, AT THE MOST. THIS PARTICULAR RUN EXTENDS THE FREEZING RAIN DURATION BY 2-4HOURS, ABOUT 16-18HOURS OF STRAIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH NO SLEET MIXED IN. IN THIS IMAGE, NOTICE HOUR 67 ON THE LEFT AND HOUR 68, NOTICE HOW THE BULK OF HEAVY ICE IS EAST OF ROANOKE AND LYNCHBURG, OVER FARMVILLE/RIC/TRICITIES. ROANOKE AND POINTS WEST WERE SLAMMED FOR MOST OF THE STORM UNTIL ABOUT HOUR 60-63 AS THE HEAVY PRECIP SHIFTS EAST. THIS IS THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR CENTRAL VA...............................MAJOR ICE STORM, POTENTIALLY HISTORIC/CRIPPLING NOW EXPECTED BASED ON 12Z CMC AND 12Z GFS RUNS**** Thanks to WxSynopsis

 

 

 

DOOMED!

Put the women and children to bed.........

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