Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[40/70 Benchmark]

He's for it and Kevin's against it. That's a good sign.

Kev is still spurned from the HECS fail and focused on the 2-5" that he won't get from the Norlun; he'll lock this in once we hit about Tuesday.

[nzucker]

Has socks said this one is a miss yet?

Yeah I am pretty gung ho for this storm...I mean come on, even a Grinch like me roots for snow on Christmas dude!

In all seriousness, this is a more concrete threat as we have a massive +PNA with a La Niña-inspired polar jet screaming down the backside, arctic air being pounded into North America via the high pressure over AK North Slope, a huge ULL burying the Sierra Nevada breaking into pieces and ejecting one across the country on December 23rd, and a nice -NAO confluence but not too suppressive. Looks like a bona fide threat to be honest, although still far out.

[bch2014]

At hr 120, the gfs is looking similar to 12z.

[CT Rain]

Yeah I am pretty gung ho for this storm...I mean come on, even a Grinch like me roots for snow on Christmas dude!

In all seriousness, this is a more concrete threat as we have a massive +PNA with a La Niña-inspired polar jet screaming down the backside, arctic air being pounded into North America via the high pressure over AK North Slope, a huge ULL burying the Sierra Nevada breaking into pieces and ejecting one across the country on December 23rd, and a nice -NAO confluence but not too suppressive. Looks like a bona fide threat to be honest, although still far out.

Make sure you get these for Christmas first... then worry about the snow

http://www.walmart.com/ip/Hanes-Men-s-Ankle-Socks-10-Pairs/10967088?sourceid=1500000000000003260430&ci_src=14110944&ci_sku=10967088

[40/70 Benchmark]

At hr 120, the gfs is looking similar to 12z.

Agree....looking great and the consistency is alarming.

[dendrite]

Yeah I am pretty gung ho for this storm...I mean come on, even a Grinch like me roots for snow on Christmas dude!

In all seriousness, this is a more concrete threat as we have a massive +PNA with a La Niña-inspired polar jet screaming down the backside, arctic air being pounded into North America via the high pressure over AK North Slope, a huge ULL burying the Sierra Nevada breaking into pieces and ejecting one across the country on December 23rd, and a nice -NAO confluence but not too suppressive. Looks like a bona fide threat to be honest, although still far out.

In all seriousness...when we talk about "threats" in this subforum we don't imply that they have to be HECS setups with Archambault phase changes and a perfect H5 setup. We get a lot of our snow from rinkydink setups that slowly add up to our seasonal total.

Now back to our Xmas storm. It looks like the GFS is going to go bonkers again.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Make sure you get these for Christmas first... then worry about the snow

http://www.walmart.c...ci_sku=10967088

LOL He needs ankle socks.

[nzucker]

Make sure you get these for Christmas first... then worry about the snow

http://www.walmart.c...ci_sku=10967088

So kind of you to think of my XMAS presents, but my drawer is already stuffed with MANSOCKS. Even if Dobbs Ferry gets 30" of snow and eclipses the Snowicane while you rain, I will be prepared to do Jim Cantore style reporting in this thread without a chance of any snowflakes touching my tender feet.

[Damage In Tolland]

You guys can focus on the Xmas storm. I'll stick with Don S and his thoughts on it for now.

[CT Rain]

rain on the new GFS

[dendrite]

Uh oh...heading for upstate NY through 150hr.

[moneypitmike]

Kevin says the systems will always trend northwest in a nina. Based on that, our GFS eye-cendy's destined to become a grinchy Rochester Reeker.

[CT Rain]

LOL He needs ankle socks.

Yup... look at those 10 bucks for a dozen pair of ankle socks.

[nzucker]

In all seriousness...when we talk about "threats" in this subforum we don't imply that they have to be HECS setups with Archambault phase changes and a perfect H5 setup. We get a lot of our snow from rinkydink setups that slowly add up to our seasonal total.

Now back to our Xmas storm. It looks like the GFS is going to go bonkers again.

I know...I lived in Middlebury for three winters; you tend to get a lot of smaller events up there that add up to good seasonal totals, although Vermont had its fair share of monsters in my time that really boosted our snowfall...V-Day 2007, St. Patty's 2007, 1/28/09, 1/3/10, 2/4/10, etc. Those were all 12"+ events with three of them exceeding 20", but I guess that is rare for NNE compared to the I-95 suburbs where I live. I don't like to downplay any threat for snow but the last few set-ups, eh, have been pretty paltry. XMAS actually looks like a solid event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd really lose it if this ended up another cutter.

[MaineJayhawk]

Uh oh...heading for upstate NY through 150hr.

Actually stalls it over northern New Jersey at 162. Odd solution.

[ORH_wxman]

In all seriousness...when we talk about "threats" in this subforum we don't imply that they have to be HECS setups with Archambault phase changes and a perfect H5 setup. We get a lot of our snow from rinkydink setups that slowly add up to our seasonal total.

Now back to our Xmas storm. It looks like the GFS is going to go bonkers again.

I've been trying to portray that thought with little luck....so I sort of stopped trying.

Clippers/redevelopers/etc bring a lot of our snows...even a lot of our larger events (warning criteria) are NOT classic KU setups.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like a nice swfe to me.

[dendrite]

Stalls and occludes over Philly...nice. So we have the EC and its ensembles with a BM hit and a scrape E of the BM, respectively. And we have the GFS amped up and bombing to our SW and moving inland. I like where we sit right now for d6-7.

[CT Rain]

I'd really lose it if this ended up another cutter.

Yeah that would be a total nightmare.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah that would be a total nightmare.

Better enter rain/snow now in your forecast for Xmas since the GFS has it

[dryslot]

Stalls and occludes over Philly...nice. So we have the EC and its ensembles with a BM hit and a scrape E of the BM, respectively. And we have the GFS amped up and bombing to our SW and moving inland. I like where we sit right now for d6-7.

You have to, We have no choice but to like it............lol

[CT Rain]

Better enter rain/snow now in your forecast for Xmas since the GFS has it

lol

[dryslot]

Better enter rain/snow now in your forecast for Xmas since the GFS has it

You 2 kill me.........

[snowNH]

Anyone else surprised how the GFS has showed this storm for multiple runs now?

[CT Rain]

To be honest the GFS running this inside and the Euro and other globals further south is a good sign this stage in the game. I'd rather see a cutter than a suppressed ots solution from the GFS right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd take that soloution.

[A-L-E-X]

I'd take that soloution.

I thought people were saying it cuts west of NYC? That would mean a SE wind for everyone

[Damage In Tolland]

To be honest the GFS running this inside and the Euro and other globals further south is a good sign this stage in the game. I'd rather see a cutter than a suppressed ots solution from the GFS right now.

I heard the same thing for tonights OTS storm

[CT Rain]

I'd take that soloution.

snow, pingers, rain, wraparound snow. Not the worst lol.