snowman21 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 We've seen this enough to know the temp deal. You can envision hill towns staying 29-31 for highs on Wed. And coast like 34 ish. Go under all guidance esp with fresh snowcover I'd bet against 34 or less for a high on the shoreline. BDR, HVN, and GON have never done it as early as 11/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 It looks like snow is possible for my birthday for the first time since 1987. Hoping to have enough for a morning snowball fight with my son before school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Clouds out here just filled the sky They come in quick, don't they? Hopefully the precip doesn't move out quick the same way. Wow--I just took a look to see what the highest wind I had last night. I managed sustained 32 and a gust of 34mph at my crappy siting at 10:00p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Pretty much sums up what everyone is thinking so far on this threat. http://ryanhanrahan.com/2013/11/11/first-snow-of-the-season-for-many/ Not a whole lot more to say right now other than we'll have to watch the radar as this starts to unfold. I think a coating to an inch for many but I could easily see this becoming a non-event if we don't get rates up enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The Dec 2003 event was a true WINDEX event with rapidly falling temps in the 20s down to the Cape. I don't see that this time around, but maybe the hill towns fall to like 29-30 if the snow comes down briefly moderately. Starting to feel a mini fun zone over parts of RI and SE MA. Probably interior SE MA higher spots like Will said, but if it does get a boost nearing the south coast..it's possible TAN and areas like that could get a surprise. If this is not organized then all bets are off, but I wouldn't be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The Dec 2003 event was a true WINDEX event with rapidly falling temps in the 20s down to the Cape. I don't see that this time around, but maybe the hill towns fall to like 29-30 if the snow comes down briefly moderately. Starting to feel a mini fun zone over parts of RI and SE MA. Probably interior SE MA higher spots like Will said, but if it does get a boost nearing the south coast..it's possible TAN and areas like that could get a surprise. If this is not organized then all bets are off, but I wouldn't be shocked. Yup. Fun times for Bob. Just noticed that BOX stuck a fork in it for GC with the latest zfp calling for little or no accumulation. Temp ticking slowly down here, but there's a long way to go. 44.0/27 off a noon-time high off 3-hour plateau between 12:00 and 3:00 between 45-46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Yup. Fun times for Bob. Just noticed that BOX stuck a fork in it for GC with the latest zfp calling for little or no accumulation. Temp ticking slowly down here. 44.0/27 off a noon-time high off 3-hour plateau between 12:00 and 3:00 between 45-46. Well that's not to say you guys won't get something...you probably will. Obviously the high spots like the ORH hills as well. I mean more for SE MA area..it may exit stage right with a burst of wet snow. Maybe only a coating, but most this morning had rain it seemed. I'll fire up a euro weenie map for the hell of it. Personally I don't see widespread 1-2, but like always...someone will get an overachieving band that may do it. Probably C-1" or so like other said. It's really meaningless to argue totals with such meager amounts anyways...but first flakes are fun and festive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 Pretty much sums up what everyone is thinking so far on this threat. http://ryanhanrahan.com/2013/11/11/first-snow-of-the-season-for-many/ Not a whole lot more to say right now other than we'll have to watch the radar as this starts to unfold. I think a coating to an inch for many but I could easily see this becoming a non-event if we don't get rates up enough. I like what I'm seeing off to the west upstream...some good snow rates and a fast flip with that airmass. Obviously it doesn't have to mean we'll get the same...their drop in temps is probably faster than we'll see being in the midwest away from mountain and coastal influence...but it's still nice to see that happen in the middle of daytime. We'll at least have timing on our side for trying to get colder. Good discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Is there am estimation for precip start time later tonite for say, Orh and Bos (ball park). I have very little time to look at things today but was wondering latest trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Is the thinking that everyone starts as rain? BL might be a bit warm but dews low, so maybe highest points flip quick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 JFK profile similar to BOS on GFS BUFKIT..even a bit more impressive. Since it's a SWCT winter every winter, should bode well for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 2 inches is probably the highest amounts we see. Whether it's in the hills or interior SE Mass..is what we don't quite know yet I could see some spot 3-4" up here in the usual spots. Snowing lightly above 1,000ft already. Snizzle down at 750ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 Is there am estimation for precip start time later tonite for say, Orh and Bos (ball park). I have very little time to look at things today but was wondering latest trends. Prob just after midnight for both...maybe an hour earlier for ORH. It will be rain though to start. Probably nothing interesting to see until 4 or 5am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Can't wait for the potential for some squalls over the next 6 hours or so. 14" of upslope last night, over 1" QPF, and we should be able to add a few inches with this event the thread is made for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Looks like a mini screw zone up here. 18Z NAM doesn't even drop me a hydrometeor. Hopefully it's a little over performer for you guys down there. These RA>SN frontal events are always tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 Looks like a mini screw zone up here. 18Z NAM doesn't even drop me a hydrometeor. Hopefully it's a little over performer for you guys down there. These RA>SN frontal events are always tricky. The NAM is dropping temps like 4F per hour between 08z and 12z. I'm wondering how it will play out. It did that out west of here this afternoon, but its always a little tougher closer to the coast and east of mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The fever pitch in here is palpable... ha. Can you imagine if dry really did beget dry and nothing happened. The models just unilaterally busted too wet and it was just a virga parade? Oh man, the abject state of affairs if that ever happened. laughing... But, the reason that dark humor occurred to me is that I was looking at BUF radar off and on over the last 3 hours. They've had a band of high light, to low-end moderate echoes over them the whole time, and they have not reported any ground truth. I am also noticing a 20F DP depression there. Here's the rub... Where light cold rain has gone to snow in western Mich and NE Ill., their start off DP depressions were on the order of a mere 10 or 12F. We on the other hand have bit more of a dry issue locally. I am just wondering if this arctic boundary might supersede the atm ability to get that SW flow of 33F DP, like that which took place in the southern Lakes. Just a thought... Oh wait...haha, looked at the wrong row on the obs sheet. BUF is pouring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The fever pitch in here is palpable... ha. Can you imagine if dry really did beget dry and nothing happened. The models just unilaterally busted too wet and it was just a virga parade? Oh man, the abject state of affairs if that ever happened. laughing... That it is, lol. I leave to go play in the snow for a couple hours and there's 4 pages on a D-2" threat. Must be that early season first flakes potential for the populous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Looks like a mini screw zone up here. 18Z NAM doesn't even drop me a hydrometeor. Hopefully it's a little over performer for you guys down there. These RA>SN frontal events are always tricky. It's giving me a few hundredths. Let me count the flakes....... 44.4/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 That it is, lol. I leave to go play in the snow for a couple hours and there's 4 pages on a D-2" threat. Must be that early season first flakes potential for the populous. Intellicast has a nice depiction of the progress of this deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Intellicast has a nice depiction of the progress of this deal... Yeah, I really like their radar scheme. They are usually pretty darn accurate with rain vs. snow depictions, especially in elevation events. The only thing about it is it sometimes looks more impressive than reality/ground truth, but you get that with any radar using the composite function. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 It's too bad we can't clock a couple hours of clear sky this evening. It would give us a head start on cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Yeah, I really like their radar scheme. They are usually pretty darn accurate with rain vs. snow depictions, especially in elevation events. The only thing about it is it sometimes looks more impressive than reality/ground truth, but you get that with any radar using the composite function. I've noticed that too... These national depictions are smoother and look more ominous. Then if you click the regional scope there's grainier with holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 The NAM has 2m temps at or below record low max values for all SNE climo stations on Wednesday...we'll have to see how well the 2m temps do vs MOS. MOS is 2-4F above record low max threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Yeah, I really like their radar scheme. They are usually pretty darn accurate with rain vs. snow depictions, especially in elevation events. The only thing about it is it sometimes looks more impressive than reality/ground truth, but you get that with any radar using the composite function.With dual pol now we should get some better ptype radar algorithms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 With dual pol now we should get some better ptype radar algorithms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 image.jpg Yup, and here's AZO's obs for the last hour: 11 15:53 N 13 1.25 Light Snow Fog/Mist BKN006 OVC015 33 31 92% 24 NA 30.15 1021.7 0.03 0.09 11 14:53 N 9 5.00 Rain Fog/Mist BKN008 OVC014 37 34 89% 30 NA 30.10 1020.0 0.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Sorry for the delay, busy at work but here are the euro maps. Looks like whyat everyone else has stated. Rain to snow with deep RH and lift so should be a nice burst as it exists. Images starting at 09z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 If you believe the NAM, the Mid Atlantic has the best shot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.