FLweather Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Looks like slight improvements from last night run on the Euro. Main longwave trough axis slowed down some which allows better connection of the S/W. Trough is more neutral even trys to close off at 500 over NC/SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Euro looks closer to the GFS than NAM with respect to timing , but is a good bit deeper, sub 546dm heights are into NC at 72 hours. I do not see any semblance of energy hanging back like the NAM shows, just a solid cold front for mid Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Even the flurries are in jeopardy now. It's gonna be a race between the caa and moisture ! Looks like sprinkles at best, maybe a flurry changeover! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Fairly big deal to me on who sees that 1-2" versus seeing token flakes. Greensboro north? Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Brad Panovich WCNC Liked · 4 hours ago Here's the probability of 1" of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Fairly big deal to me on who sees that 1-2" versus seeing token flakes. Greensboro north? Odd. Whats odd about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Brad Panovich WCNC Liked · 4 hours ago Here's the probability of 1" of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. . I approve this map!! My area has just as high of a chance as any other area on his map, even the mountains!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Whats odd about it? It's a front that magically gets more moisture just east of the foothills...actually nvm... nothing odd about that. Happens all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Does anybody else see Foghorn Leghorn in this map!?? Anxiously waiting tonight's model runs! This whole thing is abnormal, but exciting to watch. Precip coming n to s and making it off the mtns is not an everyday occurence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 gfs more of the same, dry with some flurries at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 gfs more of the same, dry with some flurries at best. Have you already gotten the 18z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Have you already gotten the 18z run? yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Yuck. Gap showing up over the mtns/foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 yep. Yeah, I just updated...out to 117h now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 out to 138 on models.americanwx.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Yuck. I was afraid the old Foothills snow shadow would show up at some point. Oh well, we await the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I was afraid the old Foothills snow shadow would show up at some point. Oh well, we await the next run. Robert was talking about this in his piece today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I'd take the 18z GFS's QPF solution verbatim, to be honest. Looks sort of okay here, like a Triad special... Not that it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 NWS Blacksburg European model (ecmwf)/GFS hint at a deformation zone developing in western NC between 00z and 06z Wednesday (tues night)which may keep snow falling in this region Tuesday evening. However...after midnight...a strong push of dry air arrives bringing an end to the light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 gfs more of the same, dry with some flurries at best. Per 18z. R>S for VA,NC. Really looking at 700 rh flurries for north SC is a stretch. Deepest moisture is confined north. Yuck. Gap showing up over the mtns/foothills. That looks like the effects of lee side trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Not sure what kind of track record NAM hires has... But If only we could get the parent long wave trough to slow down just enough to allow this S/W to develop. It would be pure awesomeness for this time of year. But not likely to happen though. The flow is just too fast for this to develop stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Well, I like what it shows no matter how unlikely. And still the late weekend wants to have some energy out of the gulf, and cold air moving into the midsection, and a week to get them to dance, lol. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 My main concern for the flizzard now are temps . The start time looks to be around 4 or 5 pm. The cold air 9 out of 10 times , never gets across the mtns fast enough! I would hate to get .15 of precip and .14 be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Personally, I do not place a lot of merit on what the 6z and 18z runs of the GFS shows. I pretty much stick to the 0z and 12z runs of the GFS to forecast along with other models. I have personally noticed they tend to be more accurate. Additionally, I do believe there is a chance of a snow shadow developing across the foothills of North Carolina. The key will lie in the direction of the wind; however, it is difficult to determine the direction of the wind too far out. 10-20 degrees can make a big difference in drying out and possibly allowing some flurries to make it down out of the higher elevations. This is definitely an interesting forecast, and I will continue to look forward to watching the changes tomorrow. For all locations, the best chance to see snow will be in the mountains; however, accumulations do not look likely outside of 2500 feet or below. In matter of fact, anything outside of a dusting outside of the mountains would shock me at the moment. But, it is nice to be talking about the chance of snow in November, we usually do not get to do this. My main concern for the flizzard now are temps . The start time looks to be around 4 or 5 pm. The cold air 9 out of 10 times , never gets across the mtns fast enough! I would hate to get .15 of precip and .14 be rain. Temperatures will be a main concern because the energy is modeled to arrive around three hours earlier than thought. This is not good for snow and will need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I thought that was a myth about the 6z and 18z runs. It comes up every year. They are all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The only myth around here is Waycross ! The 18z and 6z use old data! We do talk about this every winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The snow might disappoint, but the panthers won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The only myth around here is Waycross ! The 18z and 6z use old data! We do talk about this every winter! I used to think this, too, but for what it's worth... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32149-gfs-12z-and-0z-runs-compared-to-6z-and-18z-runs/ The snow might disappoint, but the panthers won't. Yep, nice win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 I thought that was a myth about the 6z and 18z runs. It comes up every year. They are all the same. I assume you are discussing this, http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32149-gfs-12z-and-0z-runs-compared-to-6z-and-18z-runs/. While I understand this point, I know meteorologist, both in the public and professors at UNC-Asheville, who refuse to even look at the 6z and 18z except for entertainment purposes. The general consequences is due to the soundings, which is noted to be only a small part of the observation system. So, I can understand why someone would use the 18z and 6z runs; however, I prefer not to use it to make changes to the weather forecast. Additionally, I sure do hope the 18z is wrong because I really would like to see some flakes here in the mountains before I graduate! In matter of fact, it would be nice for everyone to see some snow Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 This is my forecast from last Thursday and I'm sticking with it. I am. My area. Light rain with cold chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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