Logan11 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Seems like the Euro is just headed toward the other OTS solutions. They could all bring it back...but this 0Z fantasy I-95 snowstorm is most likely a one run mirage and at 12Z it is even further east. Anything can happen. The GFS and GGEM could trend towards the Euro or the Euro could trend towards them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Seems like the Euro is just headed toward the other OTS solutions. They could all bring it back...but this 0Z fantasy I-95 snowstorm is most likely a one run mirage and at 12Z it is even further east. That could be possible. The one thing that we know is that there will be enough cold air if there is a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Seems like the Euro is just headed toward the other OTS solutions. They could all bring it back...but this 0Z fantasy I-95 snowstorm is most likely a one run mirage and at 12Z it is even further east. huh? it isn't a one run mirage on the Euro, it is the third straight run to have a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Seems like the Euro is just headed toward the other OTS solutions. They could all bring it back...but this 0Z fantasy I-95 snowstorm is most likely a one run mirage and at 12Z it is even further east. Yea, if tomorrow 12z run still has a similar solution I will start to become bullish and start to look for other models to join the euro - the ensembles and control should hint at the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 huh? it isn't a one run mirage on the Euro, it is the third straight run to have a big storm. He is just saying that the Euro went east towards the other models. The Euro has had a big storm for a couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Comical 20" showing up here on the 0z snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Comical 20" showing up here on the 0z snowfall map haha, either way its going to be cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 It's trended a couple hundred miles east though. I wouldn't be shocked though it it came back to a more amplified solution though with 5-6 days to go. huh? it isn't a one run mirage on the Euro, it is the third straight run to have a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Every model along side with the euro is all over the place, yeah the euro has shown a big storm for 3-4 runs but if you look at it, its jumping extremes from east to west back east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Comical 20" showing up here on the 0z snowfall map If it were January, this would have at least a 10% higher chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 If it were January, this would have at least a 10% higher chance of verifying. im not sure i agree, at least given the current depiction of this storm on the various models. The issue (and of course this can change) now seems to be an OTS solution, rather than a temperature problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Love your stuff DSN Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 It's trended a couple hundred miles east though. I wouldn't be shocked though it it came back to a more amplified solution though with 5-6 days to go. yeah it definitely did trend east, with 5 days to go, who knows how this will end up, but it would be nice if the Euro had some support... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 This pattern is very convoluted with all of this ridge wave breaking in the Pacific. It's not your typical ridge-trough-ridge-trough type of pattern. This will cause lots of chaos in the models as any small nuance in the wave breaking can have all sorts of downstream effects -- it may take several times of comparing each Euro run at 500mb to really see the differences, but once you do, you realize how important every little feature is and how one small tick can greatly affect a surface depiction. It would be nice to have had some blocking to increase the room for error so to speak...it's going to be hard to slow down the flow enough for this to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Another interesting thing on the euro is absence of any real warm up. Best we do is high 50's prior to next cold front around day 10, which again brings in some arctic air. Looks like at or below is the theme with brief warm ups through the forecast period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 lol this is one of the most intense snowfall maps for 12 hours I have ever seen for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 That is an awesome run. The euro really wants to dig that northern stream hard over the ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Lmao. Pipe dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 In this range the Euro had NO support from ANY other model with Sandy and many other storms. The Euro does not need support from any other model. Of course it would make our forecasting lives easier, but time and again the Euro has proven why it does not need support. Of course it can be wrong this time, but as I stated last night, I expected a significant shift east based upon what I have been seeing with the control run of the model leading the way. The Euro has been following the lead of the control run on the past two runs. The prior control run showed a perfect track and I expected such when the next run came out. Will it happen? The chances are obviously against it, but so were they for most of the super big storms we got including Sandy. So right now, blizzard or nothing. What else is new? I remember in this range it was the meteorologists on TV saying, "we have only one model with the storm coming inland and 11 eleven with it going out to sea, so it isn't going to happen". Yeah. yeah it definitely did trend east, with 5 days to go, who knows how this will end up, but it would be nice if the Euro had some support... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Wow. Did you forget Sandy already? Sure, the chances are minimal. But wow. Or how about Boxing Day? This situation is reminiscent of both in many ways. Of course it may not happen but we surely need to keep an eye on it. The Euro has clobbered us now on three straight runs with this storm in one form or other and it started hinting on it already 3 days ago. Meanwhile with every major storm I can ever remember, including Sandy, all of the other models saw the storms being WAY too far out to sea but the Euro saw the close to shore track. I would put my money on the Euro if I were betting. Sure it may be wrong, but that would be the safer bet even if it has NO other model support. And the chances of this happening? You do see how volatile the situation is with regards to the various solutions. They are constantly changing and if there's a trend, the Euro will take this OTS by this time tomorrow night or Saturday 12Z. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The new Euro Control run has the storm, but it is out to sea, so we will just have to wait and see what happens. It could certainly miss us out to sea as well. I can't believe we are seriously tracking something here already though. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 6z GEFS ensemble mean definitely has a significantly noticeable tug back to the NW, encompassing our area at the same time that the Euro does its magic. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Another interesting thing on the euro is absence of any real warm up. Best we do is high 50's prior to next cold front around day 10, which again brings in some arctic air. Looks like at or below is the theme with brief warm ups through the forecast period Yeah, all those posts a week ago about warmth this week and next week shot dead again. Could this be the theme of the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The OP continues to hold serve with the idea of low closing off and a track near the coast while the ensemble mean is a little further east. But the 0z Op run was a move in the direction of the ensemble to the east from a 12 interior coastal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Even though it has no coastal storm, the 6z GFS made small step towards the Euro's evolution. It's leaving more shortwave energy behind over the Southeast. But still not enough. At the very least, it may still struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 It's definitely possible the models go back to a storm after a few runs, they tend to catch a storm then lose it, and then eventually bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 The GFS seems more logical at this point given the NAO index still being forecast positive next week then it starts tanking after the 15th. BUT who knows that NAO forecast might change later today and we have had major snowstorms in NYC in November so it is possible. Also arctic air can make it into the area with a very positive AO check out next weeks AO forecast http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif What is kind of interesting though is the EURO solution when all 3 major indicies are against a major east coast storm here is the negative PNA outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Maybe some MET here can explain all of this - is it the negative EPO alone ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Wow. Did you forget Sandy already? Sure, the chances are minimal. But wow. Or how about Boxing Day? This situation is reminiscent of both in many ways. Of course it may not happen but we surely need to keep an eye on it. The Euro has clobbered us now on three straight runs with this storm in one form or other and it started hinting on it already 3 days ago. Meanwhile with every major storm I can ever remember, including Sandy, all of the other models saw the storms being WAY too far out to sea but the Euro saw the close to shore track. I would put my money on the Euro if I were betting. Sure it may be wrong, but that would be the safer bet even if it has NO other model support. I salute you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Does P001 look a little like the Euro or what? Even further inland with the precipitation though and closer to the coast. Has another near miss with P005 in later frames too. Had NO members that were hits on prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Henry Marugsity from Accuweather stated he likes the Euro evolution for next week (via Twitter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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