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11/13 - 11/16 Potential Storm Threat

user13

By user13,
in New York City Metro

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted

Where I am down in Morris County one of my Maples is still more than 90% green.

 

Looking out of my office window in Ramsey, I would say it's 70% fully leaved, 20% losing leaves and 10% bare.

 

Some of the Norway Maples are freakish that way.  You'll have bare trees and all of the leaves cleaned up and then at the end of the month a Norway Maple will drop a two foot deep layer of yellow leaves overnight. 

 

Most of the leaves on trees around here will be down by the middle of next week, so that wouldn't be the main concern.

 

PS If this storm does materialize but is a rainer for the coast, I'll be just as happy.  An inch of rain would triple our output for the past 6 weeks.

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jm1220

jm1220

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Some of the Norway Maples are freakish that way.  You'll have bare trees and all of the leaves cleaned up and then at the end of the month a Norway Maple will drop a two foot deep layer of yellow leaves overnight. 

 

Most of the leaves on trees around here will be down by the middle of next week, so that wouldn't be the main concern.

 

PS If this storm does materialize but is a rainer for the coast, I'll be just as happy.  An inch of rain would triple our output for the past 6 weeks.

I'd personally wager on an OTS track given the progressive pattern and kicker, but a lot is on the table. Any accumulating snow is highly favored for well inland locations given the water temperatures even if cold enough air aloft is present. It really might be easier for snow for Philly and DC than here since they are not surrounded by water.

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snywx

snywx

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Upton:

 

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BEYOND THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL OF A COASTAL STORM DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPLITTING FROM A POLAR
VORTEX TO THE NORTH BEFORE IT PHASES WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE TREND FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS IS THAT THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DOESN`T ATTEMPT CLOSING
OFF A 500 MB LOW UNTIL IT`S WELL OUT TO SEA. THIS RESULTS IN A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE AND KEEPING US DRY. THE ECMWF
HOWEVER CLOSES THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE STATES AND
EVENTUALLY HELPS STEER A SURFACE COASTAL LOW ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS THAT ALMOST HALF
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH OR
CLOSE TO US ANYWHERE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING.
ALSO...THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HASN`T BEEN EXACTLY TOO CONSISTENT
WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN LATELY. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE WEATHER HAZARDS. THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME HOWEVER TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE
HWO.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

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The 18z run of the GFS is not only going to be further offshore than 12z, but also weaker as well. No cut off low on the GFS and a very progressive pattern in general. It definitely has to be considered a possibility. We seem to be moving towards somewhat of a model consensus now with the Euro op being a strong outlier. Luckily I would still put my money on the Euro over every other model.

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user13

user13

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It really tries at hour 135 but the flow is too fast and too flat. The low is almost to Bermuda this run.

It just cant tilt fast enough....Guess we will have to wait for the ensembles, they were surprisingly west on the 12z run.

But at this range the SE bias might also be playing a factor

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user13

user13

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With the ECM ensemble means being east and the GFS operational now for two runs in a row being east and the fast flow in which we have ..it appears a solution OTS is the most likely scenario that would be on the table... unless we can get something to slow down the fast flow...

 

At this time frame I would rather see an ots solution vs an apps cutter for our snow chances.

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

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Euro control run was a bit further west this morning than the operational run, the operational run came further west this afternoon.  Now the control run just came in further east, taking a perfect track with a low developing over Florida, deepening to 992mb and coming due north to the Virginia Capes prior to heading northeast about 50 -100 miles off shore of NJ.  A perfect track, but with a strange 850 profile above 0 in most places in our area but with some pockets of below 0 at 850.  To me it seems likely that the operational run will come east quite a bit on the next run.  I think the track may end up being perfect and the question will end up being who gets how much.  This reminds me of so many other times in the past where the GFS is too far east and the Euro too far west, then as we get closer the perfect track sets up.  Seen this too many times.  

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

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Euro control run was a bit further west this morning than the operational run, the operational run came further west this afternoon.  Now the control run just came in further east, taking a perfect track with a low developing over Florida, deepening to 992mb and coming due north to the Virginia Capes prior to heading northeast about 50 -100 miles off shore of NJ.  A perfect track, but with a strange 850 profile above 0 in most places in our area but with some pockets of below 0 at 850.  To me it seems likely that the operational run will come east quite a bit on the next run.  I think the track may end up being perfect and the question will end up being who gets how much.  This reminds me of so many other times in the past where the GFS is too far east and the Euro too far west, then as we get closer the perfect track sets up.  Seen this too many times.  

Agree 100 % in fact let's go back in time to December 2010 - read some of these posts - models were way east to begin with

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/3600-december-18-20-talking-points-part-2/

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

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Lol at drawing snow maps and rain / snow lines 144 hours out...get within 48 to 72 hours and then you might have something...plus I doubt there will be any leaves on the trees a week from now.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

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Water temps were a bit cooler last year with the Nov snowstorm. Oct 2011 we had NE winds off the 60 degree LI Sound which really limited our snow accumulations and kept us rain most of the time. The more west you are the more snow you got. In both the Oct 2011 storm and Nov 2012 snow storms the temps never went below freezing due to the flow. Water temps right now are around 58,59,60 degrees which is slightly above normal.

 

I just looked at the buoy data and water temps are between 56 F and 59 F...which is pretty close to normal for November 7th...if the next 6 days are chilly, you can probably knock another one to three degrees off the water temps by the time the system gets close.  I think that the general rule of thumb is that you need 850mb temps to be at least - 5 C to overcome 50 F (10 C) water temps at the immediate coast...though there is a good deal of variability here. 

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Animal

Animal

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Good evening all,

 

Media is buzzing with news of the snow storm next week.

My wife even asked about the storm. It seems people on the block are expecting the first snow next week.

 

http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2013/11/could_nj_see_its_first_snow_of.html#incart_m-rpt-1

 


One forecast model shows an early-season monster – a coastal low that dumps more than a foot of snow on parts of New Jersey next week.

Another shows a continuation of the dry conditions the state has experienced over the last several months, only with a bite of winter cold. A day earlier, that same model showed a period of cold rain for most, and a few flakes of snow up north.

Something is brewing, but the jury is still out on what. But the possibility that New Jersey could get its first significant snowfall of the season has forecasters watching closely.

“Certainly something to watch because there’s plenty of cold air coming down,” said Mike Mihalik, a meteorologist with Weather Works, a private forecasting firm in Hackettstown. “We could see our first (snow) flakes of the season.”

Most forecasters are being coy with their predictions on what could happen - and with good reason – the level of uncertainty is enormous. The slightest change in conditions halfway across the country could alter the forecast dramatically.

“The screaming message I’m seeing at this point is that there is well-above average levels of uncertainty,” said Gary Szatkowski, meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly. “Very small changes 1,000 or 2,000 miles away will alter the track or intensity or even whether or not a storm even forms.”

While a winter storm remains in question, there are some things that are more likely to occur in New Jersey by the middle of next week.

A cold front is expected to push through the state on Tuesday, ushering in some of the coldest air the state has experienced this fall. Water temperatures are hovering at or above normal off the state’s coast, which could prove to be the key ingredient in the development of a coastal storm sometime between Wednesday and Friday.

“So you’re going to have a natural temperature contrast and that’s why we have nor’easters,” Szatkowski said. “The ingredients will be in place whether or not we make something with them is the question.”

The answer may not come for days, but the threat is enough that both National Weather Service offices that cover New Jersey are mentioning the storm threat in their forecast discussions.

“Way too much uncertainty with this system as it is at the end of the (forecast) period but if the guidance holds its course, we may see some of the first flakes for the season through much of the area,” Al Meola, a meteorologist at Mount Holly, wrote in his morning forecast. “Timing will be a big issue and all of the parameters will need to line up just right for this system. Definitely something to keep an eye on for the next several days.”

The problem is both time and technology. While forecast models have vastly improved in recent years – witness Hurricane Sandy being pinned down more than a week in advance of landfall – the immense variability present in atmospheric conditions several days from an event makes accurate predictions difficult.

Today’s models process millions of calculations based on immense amounts of weather data to make predictions, but the slightest error can cascade quickly, throwing off a forecast entirely. This becomes far more common when a model is forecasting more than five days away from an event, often leading to different models, or even the same model, varying widely each time it outputs a forecast.

“It’s simply telling you one of a wide range of possibilities,” Szatkowski said of the wide range of model predictions. “This thing has a lot of moving pieces that all have to come together.”

One thing is certain – this is a situation worth monitoring as the reality of what New Jersey is facing comes into focus.

"If people are talking about it, that may not be a bad thing," Szatkowski said. "But I don't think anybody needs to be running out to the store just yet. We're not on a time crunch here."

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
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Many Nor'easters reach maximum intensity between the 39 N and 42 N...and the interaction between the warm Gulf Stream and the cold Labrador Current are key components... 

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Guest Imperator

Guest Imperator

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It's a shame one of the strongest storms on record is making landfall and there's no media coverage yet 90% of the public thinks a snowstorm is coming next week

 

 

Not only that, its a shame that with so many other problems and issues out there, some weather professionals think they should be the center of attention and to feed their own egos make it a priority that everyone should be worried about if its going to snow next week. When all is said and done, people like me still have to wake up in the morning and go to the office to make a living and not really care if its raining or snowing outside.  For every indifferent person like me there's also the sucker that falls into these weather hypesters' trap.

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