SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'd imagine we could have some strong winds with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It's really too early for anything big snow wise on the coast..water temps just too warm...a month from now it would be much different Western Long Island and other areas in the tristate saw between 6 and 9 inches of snow last November 7th. Water temps won't matter if the winds are NE or farther west and waters are actually a bit below normal for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Nobody is bringing up the fact that more than 75% of the trees, at least in this area, have almost all their leaves still. This could be a repeat for a lot of areas from the Halloween storm regarding power outages. Wow most if not all trees here are leafless up this way. Im sure areas above 1000' down in N NJ ( who have the best shot at snow anyway) are way past peak now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Western Long Island and other areas in the tristate saw between 6 and 9 inches of snow last November 7th. Water temps won't matter if the winds are NE or farther west and waters are actually a bit below normal for this time of year. Last years storm was totally freaky..everything and I mean everything worked out prefectly..early November snowstorms are once in a 100 year event..doubt we will get 2 in a row,but I guess in weather anything could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wow most if not all trees here are leafless up this way. Im sure areas above 1000' down in N NJ ( who have the best shot at snow anyway) are way past peak now. Where I am down in Morris County one of my Maples is still more than 90% green. Looking out of my office window in Ramsey, I would say it's 70% fully leaved, 20% losing leaves and 10% bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Last years storm was totally freaky..everything and I mean everything worked out prefectly..early November snowstorms are once in a 100 year event..doubt we will get 2 in a row,but I guess in weather anything could happen thats like saying we can't get hit by a cane two years in a row. One has no bearing on the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Last years storm was totally freaky..everything and I mean everything worked out prefectly..early November snowstorms are once in a 100 year event..doubt we will get 2 in a row,but I guess in weather anything could happen A little more often than 1 -100. See 11/11/87 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us1111.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Last years storm was totally freaky..everything and I mean everything worked out prefectly..early November snowstorms are once in a 100 year event..doubt we will get 2 in a row,but I guess in weather anything could happen Water temps were a bit cooler last year with the Nov snowstorm. Oct 2011 we had NE winds off the 60 degree LI Sound which really limited our snow accumulations and kept us rain most of the time. The more west you are the more snow you got. In both the Oct 2011 storm and Nov 2012 snow storms the temps never went below freezing due to the flow. Water temps right now are around 58,59,60 degrees which is slightly above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I have only been alive for 43 years and I only have a memory of maybe 39 years and I have seen many October snows, two of which were memorable for me. This is the middle of November.... A little more often than 1 -100. See 11/11/87 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us1111.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Here we go with the people saying it can't snow along the coast and such. The European model is showing accumulating snow into northern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Western South Carolina and a widespread area of 1-2 feet in the southern Appalachians. It absolutely can snow. It is just a matter of the track of this low pressure area. If it stays to our south and east we all have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Next few days of runs will be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 This snow map is a little more realistic. I still think that if it happens, the coast wont see any accumulations. Bottom line is we need rain, so I will be happy to see a 1" rainfall but we really nosedive into a bad drought. Actually better off than I thought. I'll take 8"+ in my backyard in November any day of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wow most if not all trees here are leafless up this way. Im sure areas above 1000' down in N NJ ( who have the best shot at snow anyway) are way past peak now. I can confirm you are correct... Between me and Darkstar in NNJ there are probably about 10-15% leaves on the trees, with the elms shedding today...it won't be an issue up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 We are still out at least 168 hrs for this storm. It is now appearing likely that there will be a coastal storm. The track is still far from certain. However, common sense here is that the European model is the farthest west and the GFS is farthest east and a miss. I strongly feel that this argues for a coast track, not inland and not out to sea but somewhere between all these models, but closer to the coast. In situations like this it almost always works out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'd imagine we could have some strong winds with this. Not necesarily. I was told once that just because you have a sub-1000 low off the coast doesnt mean its going to pack the winds. Every storm is different and it all depends on pressure gradients and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I can confirm you are correct... Between me and Darkstar in NNJ there are probably about 10-15% leaves on the trees, with the elms shedding today...it won't be an issue up this way. Its not even an issue here in Central NJ - 75 TO 80% OF LEAVES OFF TREES. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Here we go with the people saying it can't snow along the coast and such. The European model is showing accumulating snow into northern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Western South Carolina and a widespread area of 1-2 feet in the southern Appalachians. It absolutely can snow. It is just a matter of the track of this low pressure area. If it stays to our south and east we all have a chance. Last time I checked, the areas you mentioned are well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Where I am down in Morris County one of my Maples is still more than 90% green. Looking out of my office window in Ramsey, I would say it's 70% fully leaved, 20% losing leaves and 10% bare. Where I am on staten island most if not all the trees are starting to lose their leaves, and the ones that are not losing them yet just changed color within the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Here we go with the people saying it can't snow along the coast and such. The European model is showing accumulating snow into northern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Western South Carolina and a widespread area of 1-2 feet in the southern Appalachians. It absolutely can snow. It is just a matter of the track of this low pressure area. If it stays to our south and east we all have a chance. I think weather is more complex than we understand, and like some of the other members have said, we are in some sort of early season snowfall pattern right now. The trend is your friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I can confirm you are correct... Between me and Darkstar in NNJ there are probably about 10-15% leaves on the trees, with the elms shedding today...it won't be an issue up this way. Down in Howard Beach, Queens many of the trees have lost most of their leaves. A number are still in shock from the salt water. The city also cut down at least 1/3rd of all the trees in the area that were either weakened or killed by Sandy's surge. Whatever trees that are left have been getting serious haircuts over the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 About 60-70% bare here. I don't see leaves being a big issue, also considering we'll loose even more leaves as the days go by until the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Last time I checked, the areas you mentioned are well inland. Some of those places are lucky if they see a few inches of snow all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 BTW everyone should take a look at the super typhoon about to hit the Philippines. It might be the strongest cyclones any of us will ever see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 thats like saying we can't get hit by a cane two years in a row. One has no bearing on the other. at people already trolling/being trolled because they're trying to tamp down expectations and enthusiasm at models 144 hours or more out, for snow in mid-November in a lousy overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 at people already trolling/being trolled because they're trying to tamp down expectations and enthusiasm at models 144 hours or more out, for snow in mid-November in a lousy overall pattern. Yes, this is absolutely ridiculous. Although we haven't seen that much of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The Euro ensemble mean is OTS like the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The Euro ensemble mean is OTS like the other guidance. MSLP_North32America_168.gif Yeah was just going to post. Looks nothing like the op which makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yeah was just going to post. Looks nothing like the op which makes sense to me. May be a case of the OP hanging back too much energy to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 May be a case of the OP hanging back too much energy to the SW. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_144.gif The op run loves to do that. I mean nothing is really on or off the table, but that op run seems suspicious as to how sharp it amplifies at H5 over the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The op run loves to do that. I mean nothing is really on or off the table, but that op run seems suspicious as to how sharp it amplifies at H5 over the SE. I would like to see an OP/Ensemble compromise track right down the middle of the two with a close off further north keeping NNE winds going longer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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