11/13 - 11/16 Potential Storm Threat

[Guest Imperator]

I wrote a discussion on the storm and why it appears unlikely, but I laid out three distinct scenarios.

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/11/07/potential-scenarios-storm-next-week/

Great write up thanks for sharing.

[Brian5671]

I wrote a discussion on the storm and why it appears unlikely, but I laid out three distinct scenarios. 

 

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/11/07/potential-scenarios-storm-next-week/

Great discussion.  Thank you for posting. 

[swataz]

I wrote a discussion on the storm and why it appears unlikely, but I laid out three distinct scenarios. 

 

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/11/07/potential-scenarios-storm-next-week/

That was great, thanks!

[SnowDemon]

Not only that, its a shame that with so many other problems and issues out there, some weather professionals think they should be the center of attention and to feed their own egos make it a priority that everyone should be worried about if its going to snow next week. When all is said and done, people like me still have to wake up in the morning and go to the office to make a living and not really care if its raining or snowing outside.  For every indifferent person like me there's also the sucker that falls into these weather hypesters' trap.

 

Uh . . . ok.

 

It's still a bit exciting to know that there is even the slightest chance of snow next week.

[Guest Pamela]

Not only that, its a shame that with so many other problems and issues out there, some weather professionals think they should be the center of attention and to feed their own egos make it a priority that everyone should be worried about if its going to snow next week. When all is said and done, people like me still have to wake up in the morning to make a living and not really care if its raining or snowing outside.  For every indifferent person like me there's also the sucker that falls into these weather hypesters' trap.

 

Well, as Judge Smails once wisely noted, "the world needs ditch diggers too."

[user13]

lol you know the GFS was ots when no one posts about it

[MJO812]

Gfs and ggem are ots

[StatenWx]

Gfs and ggem are ots

Hopefully the euro doesn't lose it. 

[Weathergun]

Gfs and ggem are ots

 

So is the 0z UKMET.

[David-LI]

lol you know the GFS was ots when no one posts about it

OTS? what do you mean? There gotta be a storm there in the first place to be OTS, the GFS doesn't even show a storm in the first place lol

[Snowlover11]

Euro vs everything else, and the euro is a inland runner, something has to give.

[Fields27]

Euro vs everything else, and the euro is a inland runner, something has to give.

 

Odds say the Euro will be the one to do so. We'll see in a few.

[user13]

Euro Looks a lot better than the gfs at 142

- if it rides north from its current position it could be a nice run for the coast

[SnoSki14]

Either the models bring it back or it's a lost cause. Give it a couple days I suppose, still a very potent cold shot, everybody goes below freezing, some well below all the way down south.

[Weathergun]

Euro will be farther east than 12z. But it's still way more amplified the other models. Closed 500mb low over Western NC at 144hr.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Either the models bring it back or it's a lost cause. Give it a couple days I suppose, still a very potent cold shot, everybody goes below freezing, some well below all the way down south.

It's a lost cause. There's no real blocking over the Western Atlantic Ocean. So therefore, it will escape east and threaten NE Canada.

[Kaner587]

And by 156 there is a sub 984 150 miles east of Delmarva. Any by 162 sub 978 low just SE of BM and were in the CCB getting clobbered

[Kaner587]

Looks very Boxing Day esque in terms of track strength and qpf

[user13]

Wow this run is epic for the coast...

- cant wait to see it on the wunder map

[Kaner587]

Roughly 1.5 qpf for NYC and surrounding area basically all frozen. Jackpot would be central jersey

[user13]

Basically a perfect scenario this run for the coast

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Basically a perfect scenario this run for the coast

And the chances of this happening? You do see how volatile the situation is with regards to the various solutions. They are constantly changing and if there's a trend, the Euro will take this OTS by this time tomorrow night or Saturday 12Z.

WX/PT

[user13]

And the chances of this happening? You do see how volatile the situation is with regards to the various solutions. They are constantly changing and if there's a trend, the Euro will take this OTS by this time tomorrow night or Saturday 12Z.

WX/PT

Yea, ots is still a greater possibility but everything must still be on the table until within 80 hours, especially with recent history in mind.

- But having the Euro with the snow idea is a pretty good model to have in your corner if you like snow.

[MJO812]

And the chances of this happening? You do see how volatile the situation is with regards to the various solutions. They are constantly changing and if there's a trend, the Euro will take this OTS by this time tomorrow night or Saturday 12Z.

WX/PT

Anything can happen. The GFS and GGEM could trend towards the Euro or the Euro could trend towards them.

[Dsnowx53]

The storm is still too far out to be worrying about specific modeling trends. We just have to keep an eye out on the Pacific ridge breaking, as well as how fast the flow is. The flow on this run slowed down a bit as the energy off the west coast retrograded a bit more thanks to the ridge wave breaking, allowing the ridge to not "tip over" as much. Thus, the cutoff low cut off a tad later than the 12z run, giving us a favorable scenario. 

[Kaner587]

I agree w above about trending towards OTS but the caveat here is that we're still 120-144 hours out so I would refrain from making any concrete assertions, but that's just me. My gut tells me this is OTS and its dry and very cold next week

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Anything can happen. The GFS and GGEM could trend towards the Euro or the Euro could trend towards them.

Huge difference from Boxing day. Back then there was an extremely negative NAO, very different now, with +NAO. I highly doubt GFS or GGEM will trend back this far. As I said earlier, I could see a scenario where we ended up the extreme nw edge of the precip, but if it goes amped, we're getting RAIN!...and if it doesn't, it's basically not much of anything....light snow/flurries, melting, etc.

WX/PT

[MJO812]

Euro snowmap is just a weenie's fantasy. 12+ for NYC

[user13]

The storm is still too far out to be worrying about specific modeling trends. We just have to keep an eye out on the Pacific ridge breaking, as well as how fast the flow is. The flow on this run slowed down a bit as the energy off the west coast retrograded a bit more thanks to the ridge wave breaking, allowing the ridge to not "tip over" as much. Thus, the cutoff low cut off a tad later than the 12z run, giving us a favorable scenario. 

Love your stuff DSN

[Dsnowx53]

Great write up thanks for sharing.

 

 

Great discussion.  Thank you for posting. 

 

 

That was great, thanks!

 

Thanks for the kind words, everyone! If one looks at tonight's Euro run closely, the wave in the Pacific broke a tad more efficiently, allowing more energy downstream of it to pinch off towards the south and especially west. This put a bit less "pressure" on the downstream ridge, preventing it from breaking like it did with the 12z run.