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11/13 - 11/16 Potential Storm Threat


user13

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The 00z Euro looked so much better than the 12z Euro. I'm still concerned about the very fast flow and how the ridge would thus "break" and force the energy south while the cold air escapes. But this run kept the west a bit more amplified as opposed to very zonal, so the ridge was able to amplify instead of break. 

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The first run of the Euro to show a similar solution was two days ago.  This solution this morning was quite similar in many respects.  The GFS is waffling like a fish out of water.  It is one run giving us a solution like the Euro, the next it it is pounding us with rain and inland areas with snow, then this run it is out to sea.  If you average it all out, you get the Euro solution.  

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The first run of the Euro to show a similar solution was two days ago.  This solution this morning was quite similar in many respects.  The GFS is waffling like a fish out of water.  It is one run giving us a solution like the Euro, the next it it is pounding us with rain and inland areas with snow, then this run it is out to sea.  If you average it all out, you get the Euro solution.  

 

Euro has yet to show ANY consistency in specifics, other than showing a storm in each of the last 5-6 runs. Each run has been relatively to vastly different to each other.

 

Just want to make sure everyone's clear that the models aren't consistent AT ALL...just because the Euro is blasting with big snow now doesn't mean a vastly different solution *could* take place at 12z.

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Right, they are not consistent.  However, the European model on its last run has reverted back to looking very similar to the run from 0z on Tuesday.  That run had a very similar placement on the Euro, producing a significant snowstorm in many of the same locations.  The last run of the Euro is similar in that regard which tells me it may be on to something.  The Control run of the Euro just came in and looks nearly identical to the operational run of the model, just a tad closer to the coast with the low, possibly changing the snow over to rain in Northeast and East Central NJ.  My guess at this point is that the European model is now honing in on the details as we are getting close to where it usually starts getting a decent idea of such details, while the GFS is getting closer but is not quite there yet, with its last run this morning doing its typical southeast bias stuff.

 

Euro has yet to show ANY consistency in specifics, other than showing a storm in each of the last 5-6 runs. Each run has been relatively to vastly different to each other.

 

Just want to make sure everyone's clear that the models aren't consistent AT ALL...just because the Euro is blasting with big snow now doesn't mean a vastly different solution *could* take place at 12z.

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Euro has yet to show ANY consistency in specifics, other than showing a storm in each of the last 5-6 runs. Each run has been relatively to vastly different to each other.

 

Just want to make sure everyone's clear that the models aren't consistent AT ALL...just because the Euro is blasting with big snow now doesn't mean a vastly different solution *could* take place at 12z.

 

That's to be expected with such anomalous blocking pattern over the Pacific.

 

 

 

 

 

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mentioned in other forum, euro is smoking something, comeon really?

:yikes:

from twit:

 

Each of the models are showing an early season snowy scenario for portions of the east in their own way. Hopefully, this is just the GFS bias of being too far east and suppressed.

 

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The global teleconnectors are unfavorable overall, but the time of year may help us out with this situation. The shorter wavelengths as well as the tendency for short waves to become cut-off from the jet could work in our favor. This same H5 pattern in winter would probably kick the s/w offshore due to the proximity of the ridges/troughs. Could we do 3 consecutive years with early season snow? We'll see. It's not a record I care to break, but interesting nonetheless.

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The global teleconnectors are unfavorable overall, but the time of year may help us out with this situation. The shorter wavelengths as well as the tendency for short waves to become cut-off from the jet could work in our favor. This same H5 pattern in winter would probably kick the s/w offshore due to the proximity of the ridges/troughs. Could we do 3 consecutive years with early season snow? We'll see. It's not a record I care to break, but interesting nonetheless.

 

It would be quite a streak to see any measurable snow after October 2008, 2011, and November 2012. 

This past October was the 5th snowiest on record for the lower 48.

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The global teleconnectors are unfavorable overall, but the time of year may help us out with this situation. The shorter wavelengths as well as the tendency for short waves to become cut-off from the jet could work in our favor. This same H5 pattern in winter would probably kick the s/w offshore due to the proximity of the ridges/troughs. Could we do 3 consecutive years with early season snow? We'll see. It's not a record I care to break, but interesting nonetheless.

Early snows last 2 seasons killed the rest of the winter so we should let this fantasy go and cut grass late next week no shovel. ;)  :P

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Being Devil's Advocate here, some have been saying all week that despite the models, the overall pattern doesnt justify a coastal. Sure most of us want a nice snowstorm, but does the pattern fit the model specifics?

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I'm not an expert on Models or anything, but didn't the Euro nailed Sandy and a couple snowstorms last year? I remember last year winter GFS being all over the place only to catch up a couple of days before the event.

 

The Euro is considered one of the best models but its not infalliable. Every model has been right and wrong at different times, some more than others and especially at ranges beyond 5 days. Thats why you are seeing a lot of pushback from some people in weather circles going after The Weather Channel, Accuwx and Facebook Mets hyping storms as definite shown beyond Day 7 on the models.

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I'm not an expert on Models or anything, but didn't the Euro nailed Sandy and a couple snowstorms last year? I remember last year winter GFS being all over the place only to catch up a couple of days before the event.

The GFS has a long history of being the first to sniff out a storm or a pattern and then losing it as times goes on. The GFS still has a storm, just not a snowstorm for most of us, that will likely change at the 12z run and then likely change in subsequent runs as well.

 

That being said, the Euro has already had one major F*ck up this year showing 4" of rain 24 hours out when we got less than a 0.25".

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Being Devil's Advocate here, some have been saying all week that despite the models, the overall pattern doesnt justify a coastal. Sure most of us want a nice snowstorm, but does the pattern fit the model specifics?

They are transient features. But there is a ridge in Western Canada and ULL in SE Canada, 24-48hrs before the storm.

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