Absolute Humidity Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I don't think we'll get much help from the NAO but the AO is poised to be some what negative, it currently sits at 0.13, down from its monthly high of 0.43 just four days ago. As for temps, I received over a foot last year, a few weeks earlier than now in a crappier air mass. This system needs to bomb out and let the dynamics take care of the rest if it can phase a little sooner than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I don't think we'll get much help from the NAO but the AO is poised to be some what negative, it currently sits at 0.13, down from its monthly high of 0.43 just four days ago. As for temps, I received over a foot last year, a few weeks earlier than now in a crappier air mass. This system needs to bomb out and let the dynamics take care of the rest if it can phase a little sooner than progged. Yea, if the current gfs solution happens, with all the moisture the 0z shows I doubt the low will be 1002 - 1004 @ that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yea, if the current gfs solution happens, with all the moisture the 0z shows I doubt the low will be 1002 - 1004 @ that time frame. How far you think it can trend cold wise? Seems to be getting colder each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 How far you think it can trend cold wise? Seems to be getting colder each run It is, so that is a good sign, but I would rather wait till less than 150 hours to see if the storm is still showing up (but the setup has good potential), before really worrying about temps. - But with the current solution, there is plenty of cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yea, if the current gfs solution happens, with all the moisture the 0z shows I doubt the low will be 1002 - 1004 @ that time frame. Mb/pressures don't reflect qpf values and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Mb/pressures don't reflect qpf values and vice versa. True in reality, but it is just something I have observed in this time frame on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Another miller a about hour 300 ish LR gfs. Similar setup to tday storm stronger more qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Euro isn't going to be ots on this run. Looks really juicy at 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Coastal hugger on the Euro. It's still strung out. A lot of rain for the coast with snow inland. Still a lot more runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Does anyone on this board think we go cold and snowy starting in a week or two, and stay in a pattern that supports very cold weather lock in straight for three months? Something like very few mild periods and maybe one thaw cycle for the entire winter. Is -3 to -4 departures each winter month, and a 40-50 inch snowfall something that looks attainable and possible this year ?? One thing that looks likely this winter will be setting almost the record for amount of days below freezing during a winter and many lows likely in the teens during upcoming winter. Canada already locked in deep freeze very early supports this guess. We are getting mid winter cold shots very early already. Looks like 2003-2004 and 1993-1994 type cold is going to almost be a given this winter already. 1977-1978 type cold maybe too. Do we have a good chance ? Well just maybe ? Thanksgiving snow, don't see it for NYC, but we are getting close to it happening sooner, rather than later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Not much agreement between the Euro and the ensemble as the ensemble is east this run due to a slower southern stream ejection than the OP. This is going to have to be a thread the needle phase timed perfectly if we are to actually get a stronger storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Not much agreement between the Euro and the ensemble as the ensemble is east this run due to a slower southern stream ejection than the OP. This is going to have to be a thread the needle phase timed perfectly if we are to actually get a stronger storm here. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_168.gif MSLP_North32America_192.gif If you look at what's going on at 500mb there really isn't much interaction from the northern stream at all. As the cut off low breaks down and slides east, a tiny piece of energy phases with what's left over from the cut off low. That particular energy is already potent and amplified. If you look at the total evolution, the trough remains fairly neutral, although sharp or amplified. This is likely the reason why not many model runs have shown more of a bombing wrapped up solution. Normally with a miller A coming up the coast like that, we would be dealing with a much stronger low at our latitude. So to be more clear, it's not a thread the needle solution at all. If it was, we would be seeing more volatility from run to run. Instead the three major models have been pretty much locked in for days with a hiccup or two. That cut off low sits down there seemingly forever and it's just a matter of time before a piece of the northern stream drops in. This setup favors inland areas. Those of us folks north and west of I-287 in the higher elevations. Obviously if we were dealing with more of a dynamic low or if we had a CAD signature showing up, things might be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 If you look at what's going on at 500mb there really isn't much interaction from the northern stream at all. As the cut off low breaks down and slides east, a tiny piece of energy phases with what's left over from the cut off low. That particular energy is already potent and amplified. If you look at the total evolution, the trough remains fairly neutral, although sharp or amplified. This is likely the reason why not many model runs have shown more of a bombing wrapped up solution. Normally with a miller A coming up the coast like that, we would be dealing with a much stronger low at our latitude. So to be more clear, it's not a thread the needle solution at all. If it was, we would be seeing more volatility from run to run. Instead the three major models have been pretty much locked in for days with a hiccup or two. That cut off low sits down there seemingly forever and it's just a matter of time before a piece of the northern stream drops in. This setup favors inland areas. Those of us folks north and west of I-287 in the higher elevations. Obviously if we were dealing with more of a dynamic low or if we had a CAD signature showing up, things might be different. The OP Euro run requires a perfect phase with the southern stream getting out ahead which is a thread the needle scenario. I am not saying that it can't happen, just that it is still an outlier solution compared to the ensemble mean. All season so far we have seen the ensembles caution people from jumping on the OP run past 120 hrs when it differed from the ensemble mean. But if the Euro and Ensemble mean agree by 120 hrs, it will be a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The OP Euro run requires a perfect phase with the southern stream getting out ahead which is a thread the needle scenario. I am not saying that it can't happen, just that it is still an outlier solution compared to the ensemble mean. All season so far we have seen the ensembles caution people from jumping on the OP run past 120 hrs when it differed from the ensemble mean. But if the Euro and Ensemble mean agree by 120 hrs, it will be a go. Correct me if I'm wrong but weren't the op and ensemble mean in perfect harmony at 12z yesterday? I do think that a further offshore track like the GFS is more likely, and that would be more favorable for us regarding snow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Not much agreement between the Euro and the ensemble as the ensemble is east this run due to a slower southern stream ejection than the OP. This is going to have to be a thread the needle phase timed perfectly if we are to actually get a stronger storm here. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_168.gif MSLP_North32America_192.gif It always worries me also when there isn't any real blocking northeast of us, as that often forces northern stream energy to dove south and capture the southern stream low. That's how the 12/26/10 storm was salvaged for us-without that block it would have been an out-to-sea sheared mess. The same thing can happen here, so we have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 6Z GFS is on crack WOW just WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Both the 12 Z GFS and 12 Z GGEM now take this system out to sea.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Both the 12 Z GFS and 12 Z GGEM now take this system out to sea.... We have a separate thread for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Possible HWW event on Sat. night and Sun. AM, behind the arctic front. 12z GFS mixing down 50kt winds at 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 This is good to see going forward. Strong -EPO signal remains on the ensembles into early December. This could set the stage for some impressive cold:Snowstorms are another story and more dependent on timing. But without Atlantic help it'll be more difficult, though possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 remember when the models were showing a potential precip event this weekend? gone. the pattern is unfavorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 remember when the models were showing a potential precip event this weekend? gone. the pattern is unfavorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 remember when the models were showing a potential precip event this weekend? gone. the pattern is unfavorable Just goes to show how long it has been since we saw a fall this dry in NYC. Driest3.90 2013 so far4.00 19084.67 19094.93 18814.97 19315.02 18795.32 19655.76 19015.77 19415.83 19145.96 1948 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Just goes to show how long it has been since we saw a fall this dry in NYC. Driest 3.90 2013 so far 4.00 1908 4.67 1909 4.93 1881 4.97 1931 5.02 1879 5.32 1965 5.76 1901 5.77 1941 5.83 1914 5.96 1948 I'm starting to wonder if we have a shot at staying at the top 1 or 2 spot. If the T-day storm is a miss, then we will very likely at the very least get the second spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Just goes to show how long it has been since we saw a fall this dry in NYC. Driest3.90 2013 so far4.00 19084.67 19094.93 18814.97 19315.02 18795.32 19655.76 19015.77 19415.83 19145.96 1948 roll that into December and this is what the numbers look like for NYC... Year....Dec precip...snowfall...ave temp 1908..........3.19"..........2.9"..........37.6 1909..........4.29"..........9.0"..........32.4 1881..........4.18"..........1.3"..........39.4 1931..........2.44"..........0.1"..........41.0 1879..........4.92"..........5.4"..........37.3 1965..........1.72"............T............40.5 1901..........7.01"..........1.5"..........35.7 1941..........4.05"..........0.3"..........38.3 1914..........5.24"..........2.6"..........31.6 1948..........6.28"........25.3"..........38.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Possible HWW event on Sat. night and Sun. AM, behind the arctic front. 12z GFS mixing down 50kt winds at 12z Sunday. this is the big story..one strong arctic front coming through..haven't seen on of these in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Sunday looks very cold, highs could be below freezing if the 18z gfs is correct, actually they may struggle getting out of the 20's for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Earlier this month, the temperature fell to 29° on November 13 in New York City. That was the first reading below 30° in November since the temperature fell to 24° on November 23, 2008. It was also the first such reading to occur prior to November 15 since the temperature reached 29° on November 14, 2004. With the closing 10 days of November likely to be colder than normal with one or two strong shots of cold air, including an air mass with temperatures forecast to be as much as 1-2 standard deviations below normal, additional such readings are highly likely. Using the 11/20-30/1981-2010 baseline, low temperatures 1-2 standard deviations below normal would range between 23° and 31°. The 11/20/2013 18z run of the GFS showed a 2-meter reading of -6°C (21°F) from the cold air mass that is forecast to blast into the region on Saturday. Since 2000, 19 days had lows below 30° and 6 days had readings below 25°. The coldest reading since 2000 was 22°, which was reached on November 25, 2005. The number of sub-30° November readings by year since 2000 are as follows: 2000: 3 days 2002: 3 days 2003: 1 day (1 day prior to November 15) 2004: 2 days (2 days prior to November 15) 2005: 4 days 2007: 1 day 2008: 5 days 2013 1 day (1 day prior to November 15)* * Through November 20 Most of those years saw December average colder than normal in the greater New York City area. December 2008 was a little warmer than normal in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Earlier this month, the temperature fell to 29° on November 13 in New York City. That was the first reading below 30° in November since the temperature fell to 24° on November 23, 2008. It was also the first such reading to occur prior to November 15 since the temperature reached 29° on November 14, 2004. With the closing 10 days of November likely to be colder than normal with one or two strong shots of cold air, including an air mass with temperatures forecast to be as much as 1-2 standard deviations below normal, additional such readings are highly likely. Using the 11/20-30/1981-2010 baseline, low temperatures 1-2 standard deviations below normal would range between 23° and 31°. The 11/20/2013 18z run of the GFS showed a 2-meter reading of -6°C (21°F) from the cold air mass that is forecast to blast into the region on Saturday. Since 2000, 19 days had lows below 30° and 6 days had readings below 25°. The coldest reading since 2000 was 22°, which was reached on November 25, 2005. The number of sub-30° November readings by year since 2000 are as follows: 2000: 3 days 2002: 3 days 2003: 1 day (1 day prior to November 15) 2004: 2 days (2 days prior to November 15) 2005: 4 days 2007: 1 day 2008: 5 days 2013 1 day (1 day prior to November 15)* * Through November 20 Most of those years saw December average colder than normal in the greater New York City area. December 2008 was a little warmer than normal in the NYC area. I'd like to see a day with a max 32 or lower...since 1950 there hasn't been many days like that...11/22/08 was the last time that happened... max/min... 27/17.......11/30/76 28/16.......11/29/55 28/18.......11/30/58 31/23.......11/28/96 31/23.......11/23/89 32/23.......11/22/08 32/24.......11/22/64 32/25.......11/22/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I'd like to see a day with a max 32 or lower...since 1950 there hasn't been many days like that...11/22/08 was the last time that happened... max/min... 27/17.......11/30/76 28/16.......11/29/55 28/18.......11/30/58 31/23.......11/23/89 32/23.......11/22/08 32/24.......11/22/64 32/25.......11/22/72 NYC might not make 32F Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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