IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Lol how? It's way ots at hr 198. Still way out in time, will change a million times See my edited post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 One bias the Euro has developed recently is it likes to amplify troughs off the East coast in its 8 to 10 , only to be a little flatter as we get closer . I really take the Euro wound up coastal soltuions with a grain of salt beyond 6 days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 One bias the Euro has developed recently is it likes to amplify troughs off the East coast in its 8 to 10 , only to be a little flatter as we get closer . I really take the Euro wound up coastal soltuions with a grain of salt beyond 6 days . In this case it's less wound up and more progressive than the GFS and the GGEM. I just would like to at least make it to the medium range at this point with some resemblance of a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 FWIW the 12z GGEM is well supported by it's ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 This may sound quite stupid...but I wonder what the correlation is between winter snowfall and October/November total precip. In a wet pattern, with more chances at precip, one would think that it raises the chances of also having more snow. For example...let's say on average, 20% of winter precip falls as snow...one would obviously expect ON AVERAGE to have a better chance of having great snowfall in a year with 10 inches of precipitation during DJF compared to a year with 3 inches of precipication during DJF. Obviously, there will be outliers such as 1997-1998 winter in which plenty of precip fell, but it was mostly rain. I highly suspect, given the dry pattern that we are in, that we are going to have a tough time getting decent snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 This may sound quite stupid...but I wonder what the correlation is between winter snowfall and October/November total precip. In a wet pattern, with more chances at precip, one would think that it raises the chances of also having more snow. For example...let's say on average, 20% of winter precip falls as snow...one would obviously expect ON AVERAGE to have a better chance of having great snowfall in a year with 10 inches of precipitation during DJF compared to a year with 3 inches of precipication during DJF. Obviously, there will be outliers such as 1997-1998 winter in which plenty of precip fell, but it was mostly rain. I highly suspect, given the dry pattern that we are in, that we are going to have a tough time getting decent snow around here. I agree, unless we have a pattern change. Some of the mets in the NE forum noted the Aleutian Ridge should help out in that dept, so there's hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 This may sound quite stupid...but I wonder what the correlation is between winter snowfall and October/November total precip. In a wet pattern, with more chances at precip, one would think that it raises the chances of also having more snow. For example...let's say on average, 20% of winter precip falls as snow...one would obviously expect ON AVERAGE to have a better chance of having great snowfall in a year with 10 inches of precipitation during DJF compared to a year with 3 inches of precipication during DJF. Obviously, there will be outliers such as 1997-1998 winter in which plenty of precip fell, but it was mostly rain. I highly suspect, given the dry pattern that we are in, that we are going to have a tough time getting decent snow around here. the period from 1956 to 1965 was the driest ten year period on record...it also was a snowy one averaging 31.1" a year...the ten year period was colder than average...we can be dry and get snow at the same time...not always though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 This may sound quite stupid...but I wonder what the correlation is between winter snowfall and October/November total precip. In a wet pattern, with more chances at precip, one would think that it raises the chances of also having more snow. For example...let's say on average, 20% of winter precip falls as snow...one would obviously expect ON AVERAGE to have a better chance of having great snowfall in a year with 10 inches of precipitation during DJF compared to a year with 3 inches of precipication during DJF. Obviously, there will be outliers such as 1997-1998 winter in which plenty of precip fell, but it was mostly rain. I highly suspect, given the dry pattern that we are in, that we are going to have a tough time getting decent snow around here. I've seen research on this and its not so much the amount in Oct/Nov as it is the location, I seem to remember reading that you want to see the axis of heavy precip in autumn be somewhere to the west of the Apps slightly....sure enough I just plotted about 5 years where we had a winter in the top 10 for precip and here is your precip in Oct/Nov....definitely seeing that TN Valley up through Oh Valley maximum...I believe the reason for this that you tend to naturally see a faster progression to the pattern in winter and hence a seasonal tendency from the fall is going to end up more south and east. The southern stream has also been way more noticeable so far this year and is definitely so in the next 1-2 weeks on the GFS/Euro, it was simply non existent last winter. The -EPO too is not going away anytime soon, anytime you're predominantly dealing with a ridge out there your chances of cold air and snow are markedly better, too many people are not giving that -EPO credit right now, I think largely because many think it will ultimately be displaced in December, what everyone tends to forget though is that those GOA patterns tend to be very hard to change once they set in through November, quite often if you have a deep GOA low through 12/1 or vice versa with a strong ridge in the GOA that is gonna be your predominant pattern for most of the winter. You've got some rare cases like 1993 where we had a GOA low that displaced to the Aleutians and we did a 180 but thats the exception rather than the rule...thats why a GOA low even in early Novembers always worries me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Its pretty ugly...we'd warm up in a hurry of the D10 OP verified...but luckily its an OP run beyond 6-7 days...its pretty much meaningless. Ensembles continue to show uncertainty (more than average for D10) in that time range. The Wednesday threat next week is still very much alive on the ensembles...they were more robust than the OP run. Maybe we can get that one inside of 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Snow shower threat still on the GFS for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Regarding the threat for next week, the 18z GFS is even more amplified with the trough down south than it was at 12z through hr 177. Sub 1012mb low east of New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 While the Euro continues to flounder from run to run, the GGEM and the GFS have shown great run to run continuity. Trough about to go negative tilt hour 192. Beautiful height rises now out ahead of it. Low along the GA/SC border. Extremely heavy rain down south and likely convection. Light precip up to south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Truncation occurs hr 204. Moderate rain over the area. Northern burbs getting the white stuff to start. This run is colder in general. The 850 freezing line hangs around I-287 for the whole event. The surface is warm. Getting closer, take away truncation and this would have been a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 While the Euro continues to flounder from run to run, the GGEM and the GFS have shown great run to run continuity. Trough about to go negative tilt hour 192. Beautiful height rises now out ahead of it. Low along the GA/SC border. Extremely heavy rain down south and likely convection. Light precip up to south Jersey. Huh? The EURO has shown the T-day threat for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Huh? The EURO has shown the T-day threat for a while now.not with the same consistency as the other two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Guys. I just saw the 12 Euro ensembles and 34 out of 51 of the individual members are bit hits. The operational Euro had about a tenth of an inch of precip and the ensemble mean has about 1 inch. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Guys. I just saw the 12 Euro ensembles and 34 out of 51 of the individual members are bit hits. The operational Euro had about a tenth of an inch of precip and the ensemble mean has about 1 inch. Wow.Yeah I heard the mean was really nice. What did the control run show? I know you often post about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Further off shore than the operational which is interesting. Usually if the mean were so much in disagreement with the operational the control run would be an indicator. This is a pretty strange situation and makes for an exceedingly difficult forecast. Yeah I heard the mean was really nice. What did the control run show? I know you often post about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 This is a pretty strange situation and makes for an exceedingly difficult forecast. How many easy 8 day forecasts are there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 This may sound quite stupid...but I wonder what the correlation is between winter snowfall and October/November total precip. In a wet pattern, with more chances at precip, one would think that it raises the chances of also having more snow. For example...let's say on average, 20% of winter precip falls as snow...one would obviously expect ON AVERAGE to have a better chance of having great snowfall in a year with 10 inches of precipitation during DJF compared to a year with 3 inches of precipication during DJF. Obviously, there will be outliers such as 1997-1998 winter in which plenty of precip fell, but it was mostly rain. I highly suspect, given the dry pattern that we are in, that we are going to have a tough time getting decent snow around here. Here is the list of Dryest falls - and the snowfall the following winter 3.90...2013 ? Snowfall Following Winter 4.00...1908 -- 20.3 4.67...1909 - 27.2 4.93...1881 - 31.4 4.97...1931 - 5.3 5.02...1879 - 22.7 5.32...1965 - 21.4 5.76...1901 - 9.1 5.77...1941 - 11.3 5.83...1914 - 28.8 5.96...1948 - 46.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Here is the list of Dryest falls - and the snowfall the following winter 3.90...2013 ? Snowfall Following Winter 4.00...1908 -- 20.3 4.67...1909 - 27.2 4.93...1881 - 31.4 4.97...1931 - 5.3 5.02...1879 - 22.7 5.32...1965 - 21.4 5.76...1901 - 9.1 5.77...1941 - 11.3 5.83...1914 - 28.8 5.96...1948 - 46.6 I was wondering about that. Thanks for compiling the list. They seem like a pretty broad representation of any given winter, dry or wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I was wondering about that. Thanks for compiling the list. They seem like a pretty broad representation of any given winter, dry or wet. a deeper look at the winters following the driest falls... season.........Nov snow seasonal ave temp...precip Dec-Mar 4.00"...1908...1.0"..........20.3"..........36.7..........13.10"....the 1900's and 10's temp averaged 32.0 and 31.4" of snow... 4.67"...1909...0.8"..........27.2"..........30.5..........14.61"....dito 4.93"...1881.....T............31.4"..........34.5..........15.19"....the 1880's averaged 30.8 and 32.8" of snow... 4.97"...1931...2.0"............5.3"..........40.1..........15.41"....the 20's and 30's averaged 25.9" of snow temp for the 30's averaged 34.0... 5.02"...1879...2.5"..........22.7"..........38.5..........13.84"....the 1870's averaged 31.5 and 31.9" of snow... 5.32"...1965.....0............21.4"..........35.9..........10.96"....the 1960's averaged 32.6 and 30.7" of snow... 5.76"...1901...0.1"..........30.0"..........30.0..........15.30"....see 1908 and 1909... 5.77"...1941.....0............11.3"..........32.9..........15.37"....the 1940's averaged 33.5 and 31.6" of snow... 5.83"...1914.....0............28.8"..........34.0..........20.44"....the 1910's averaged 32.0 and 30.2" of snow... 5.96"...1948.....T............46.6"..........38.5..........17.56"....see 1941 a little over 15.00" is the normal for Dec-Mar in NYC...ave temp is from Dec-Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Thanks. It's interesting how only 3 of those years produce below normal precipitation and even those winter months more than doubled that of their proceeding falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 a deeper look at the winters following the driest falls... season.........Nov snow seasonal ave temp...precip Dec-Mar 4.00"...1908...1.0"..........20.3"..........36.7..........13.10"....the 1900's and 10's temp averaged 32.0 and 31.4" of snow... 4.67"...1909...0.8"..........27.2"..........30.5..........14.61"....dito 4.93"...1881.....T............31.4"..........34.5..........15.19"....the 1880's averaged 30.8 and 32.8" of snow... 4.97"...1931...2.0"............5.3"..........40.1..........15.41"....the 20's and 30's averaged 25.9" of snow temp for the 30's averaged 34.0... 5.02"...1879...2.5"..........22.7"..........38.5..........13.84"....the 1870's averaged 31.5 and 31.9" of snow... 5.32"...1965.....0............21.4"..........35.9..........10.96"....the 1960's averaged 32.6 and 30.7" of snow... 5.76"...1901...0.1"..........30.0"..........30.0..........15.30"....see 1908 and 1909... 5.77"...1941.....0............11.3"..........32.9..........15.37"....the 1940's averaged 33.5 and 31.6" of snow... 5.83"...1914.....0............28.8"..........34.0..........20.44"....the 1910's averaged 32.0 and 30.2" of snow... 5.96"...1948.....T............46.6"..........38.5..........17.56"....see 1941 a little over 15.00" is the normal for Dec-Mar in NYC...ave temp is from Dec-Feb... Note that the November snowfall months with 0-1" of snow feature at least average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 00z gfs shows a nor'easter effecting the area on t-day. Snow nw and rain along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 First run of the GFS to show significant snow for the NW burbs. This keeps trending better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Could see a wrap around snow shower or two once the system moves to the northeast and colder air filters in on the northwest winds. But my experience has been that the rain stops and things dry out before any snow showers are seen in NYC with the shown 850 mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 First run of the GFS to show significant snow for the NW burbs. This keeps trending better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Could see a wrap around snow shower or two once the system moves to the northeast and colder air filters in on the northwest winds. But my experience has been that the rain stops and things dry out before any snow showers are seen in NYC with the shown 850 mb temps. True, depends on how fast the 850's can crash as the pulls away and deepens. At least there is something there to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I like the look of the storm on the 0z, (looks like there will be a good amount of cold air too) but it is still 180 hours out, lets see if the storm will actually happen before we worry about precip type. - A big thing I am looking for is the ensembles to figure out what the NAO will be at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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