user13 Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 HRRR has a low top Squall coming through early tom (who's staying up lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 The way most guidance depicts the SWUS cutoff undercutting the departing polar vortex days 5-7 is exciting. The vortex influences almost all of EUS and E Canada and creates a regime of low thicknesses into which moisture could advect. There is definitely some inter and intra model consistency with regard to these significant features. No telling how the details will play out but there could be a really cold airmass to work with. Getting a high precip event will be difficult the way this fall has been going. But there are some big time players on the field at the outer edges of the midrange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 The way most guidance depicts the SWUS cutoff undercutting the departing polar vortex days 5-7 is exciting. The vortex influences almost all of EUS and E Canada and creates a regime of low thicknesses into which moisture could advect. There is definitely some inter and intra model consistency with regard to these significant features. No telling how the details will play out but there could be a really cold airmass to work with. Getting a high precip event will be difficult the way this fall has been going. But there are some big time players on the field at the outer edges of the midrange. Encouraging. If anything, some moisture would be good. My rain bucket is thirsty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Encouraging. If anything, some moisture would be good. My rain bucket is thirsty.Won't happen. Dry is the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Won't happen. Dry is the new normal. Stop. We are in a drought. Calm down. And if you have proof that dry is the new norm then please provide it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Very strong cold shot by next weekend from the 18z gfs, highs could be at or below freezing with strong gusty winds for a day or two. The cold doesn't shift into a mild regime after that either, but probably goes to near normal. It shows storms brewing the week of Thanksgiving. It doesn't mean we'll see any major rain or even frozen events of course, but that's what it shows. I'm going to say the models back off a bit on the cold shot, but it looks pretty legit even this far out, much more so than the cool down early this week. Since the first couple of days of November, very warm weather has stayed away for the most part, and we've seen more cold than anticipated. If the cold air happens as the 18z gfs dictates it will, then we have a good chance at finishing below normal this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Won't happen. Dry is the new normal. Until it gets wet again. Remember June and July were both well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 looking forward to the cold snap next week and I'm wondering if we will see a day with a max 32 or lower this month...It hasn't happened often in November since 1955... max/min... 27/17.......11/30/76 28/16.......11/29/55 28/18.......11/30/58 31/23.......11/23/89 32/23.......11/22/08 32/24.......11/22/64 32/25.......11/22/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 What a cold run of the GFS. Next weekend is going to be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Gust to 53 mph at Lancaster AP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Severe thunderstorm warnings up for basically all of eastern PA for possibility of damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. The line is moving east at 70 mph. I don't expect much more them 30-40 mph winds as it or whatever is left pushes through. Wouldn't be surprised to see a couple gusts to 50 somewhere in the tri-state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Gust to 53 mph at Lancaster AP I see a report from the MA forum of 53 mph at BWI as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for parts of NJ WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 573 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 247 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013 DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015- 021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-181200- /O.EXB.KPHI.SV.A.0573.000000T0000Z-131118T1200Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING... IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY MERCER MONMOUTH IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY MIDDLESEX MORRIS SOMERSET SUSSEX IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER OCEAN SALEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 This part of the lime is moving slower ...severe warnings up for many in NNJ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 254 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... NORTHWESTERN BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHEASTERN LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... EASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 400 AM EST * AT 252 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM TAMIMENT TO WIND GAP TO EAST GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... SPRINGTOWN AND EASTON AROUND 300 AM EST... RIEGELSVILLE AND QUAKERTOWN AROUND 305 AM EST... HAINESVILLE AND MONTAGUE AROUND 310 AM EST... BRANCHVILLE AND WASHINGTON AROUND 315 AM EST... PELLETTOWN AND HIGH POINT AROUND 320 AM EST... HAMBURG AND SUSSEX AROUND 325 AM EST... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 400 AM EST... * AT 252 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES WEST OF PORT JERVIS TO 62 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT JERVIS...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 53 mph gust at Reading AP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 53 mph gust at Mount Pocono AP... seems to be a common theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 574 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 305 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 574 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NYC005-047-059-061-071-079-081-085-087-103-119-181300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0574.131118T0805Z-131118T1300Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX KINGS NASSAU NEW YORK ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND SUFFOLK WESTCHESTER $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 NWS reissued severe thunder warnings for same area now adding Ocean and Monmouth counties until 430am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I just got 50% of the rain in the last month in 15 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY355 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...PUTNAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...* UNTIL 445 AM EST...* AT 351 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATEDA LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OFPRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATEDALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WALDEN TO TO EWING...AND MOVING EASTAT 45 MPH.THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT TO HEARTHUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE ASTURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.LAT...LON 4104 7450 4120 7437 4124 7445 4161 74324159 7396 4145 7399 4153 7354 4153 73534129 7355 4122 7348 4110 7372 4098 73654087 7376 4092 7392 4065 7408 4060 74054049 7425 4060 7422 4059 7446 4097 7429TIME...MOT...LOC 0854Z 273DEG 37KT 4163 7415 4093 74404033 7474$GOODMAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 51mph gust reported at Charletteburg,NJ PWS. But seems suspect based sustained wind at 9mph. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KQ60 Most gusts with this line over NJ have been 30-40mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 ..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BRONX...FAIRFIELD...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NASSAU...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...QUEENS AND WESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES... AT 404 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF NEWBURGH TO SUFFERN TO MADISON TO NORTH BRUNSWICK TOWNSHIP TO MORRISVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NYC047-059-081-181015- /O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0060.131118T0934Z-131118T1015Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 434 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 515 AM EST... * AT 432 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JERSEY CITY TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF RED BANK...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THE SQUALL LINE MAY PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT TO HEAR THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. LAT...LON 4054 7395 4057 7394 4057 7402 4059 7401 4061 7404 4064 7405 4070 7401 4071 7397 4074 7396 4080 7377 4078 7376 4080 7376 4088 7348 4087 7346 4063 7342 4060 7343 4058 7356 4059 7378 4054 7393 TIME...MOT...LOC 0933Z 248DEG 49KT 4068 7403 4058 7403 4048 7408 4041 7414 $$ GOODMAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 51mph gust reported at Charletteburg,NJ PWS. But seems suspect based sustained wind at 9mph. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KQ60 Most gusts with this line over NJ have been 30-40mph That's actually one of the NJ WxNet sites run by the NJ State Climatologist's office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Not seeing any impressive reports around the city so far, look like the line split on top of us ( like usual) - JFK might get the highest gust around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 0427 AM TSTM WND GST 1 WSW SPARTA 41.14N 73.88W11/18/2013 M64 MPH WESTCHESTER NY MESONETTAPPAN ZEE LIGHT 14 MESONET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Pretty nice to see the GGEM/ECMWF/GFS all showing the threat for T-Day. Unlike the last whiff, this has ensemble support. We have some nice agreement in the ensembles for a -NAO and even some blocking as we move forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Pretty nice to see the GGEM/ECMWF/GFS all showing the threat for T-Day. Unlike the last whiff, this has ensemble support. We have some nice agreement in the ensembles for a -NAO and even some blocking as we move forward Looks east-based but an improvement over what we've been having, that's for sure. Its also good to see the low near the Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 12z GFS is back to showing garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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