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November 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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The way most guidance depicts the SWUS cutoff undercutting the departing polar vortex days 5-7 is exciting.  The vortex influences almost all of EUS and E Canada and creates a regime of low thicknesses into which moisture could advect.  There is definitely some inter and intra model consistency with regard to these significant features.  No telling how the details will play out but there could be a really cold airmass to work with.  Getting a high precip event will be difficult the way this fall has been going.  But there are some big time players on the field at the outer edges of the midrange.

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The way most guidance depicts the SWUS cutoff undercutting the departing polar vortex days 5-7 is exciting.  The vortex influences almost all of EUS and E Canada and creates a regime of low thicknesses into which moisture could advect.  There is definitely some inter and intra model consistency with regard to these significant features.  No telling how the details will play out but there could be a really cold airmass to work with.  Getting a high precip event will be difficult the way this fall has been going.  But there are some big time players on the field at the outer edges of the midrange.

Encouraging. If anything, some moisture would be good. My rain bucket is thirsty.

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Very strong cold shot by next weekend from the 18z gfs, highs could be at or below freezing with strong gusty winds for a day or two. The cold doesn't shift into a mild regime after that either, but probably goes to near normal. It shows storms brewing the week of Thanksgiving. It doesn't mean we'll see any major rain or even frozen events of course, but that's what it shows. 

 

I'm going to say the models back off a bit on the cold shot, but it looks pretty legit even this far out, much more so than the cool down early this week. Since the first couple of days of November, very warm weather has stayed away for the most part, and we've seen more cold than anticipated. If the cold air happens as the 18z gfs dictates it will, then we have a good chance at finishing below normal this month. 

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looking forward to the cold snap next week and I'm wondering if we will see a day with a max 32 or lower this month...It hasn't happened often in November since 1955...

max/min...

 27/17.......11/30/76

 28/16.......11/29/55

 28/18.......11/30/58

 31/23.......11/23/89

 32/23.......11/22/08

 32/24.......11/22/64

 32/25.......11/22/72

 

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Severe thunderstorm warnings up for basically all of eastern PA for possibility of damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. The line is moving east at 70 mph. I don't expect much more them 30-40 mph winds as it or whatever is left pushes through. Wouldn't be surprised to see a couple gusts to 50 somewhere in the tri-state.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for parts of NJ

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 573 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 247 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013 DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015- 021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-181200- /O.EXB.KPHI.SV.A.0573.000000T0000Z-131118T1200Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY MERCER MONMOUTH IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY MIDDLESEX MORRIS SOMERSET SUSSEX IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER OCEAN SALEM

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This part of the lime is moving slower ...severe warnings up for many in NNJ

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 254 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... NORTHWESTERN BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHEASTERN LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... EASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 400 AM EST * AT 252 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM TAMIMENT TO WIND GAP TO EAST GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... SPRINGTOWN AND EASTON AROUND 300 AM EST... RIEGELSVILLE AND QUAKERTOWN AROUND 305 AM EST... HAINESVILLE AND MONTAGUE AROUND 310 AM EST... BRANCHVILLE AND WASHINGTON AROUND 315 AM EST... PELLETTOWN AND HIGH POINT AROUND 320 AM EST... HAMBURG AND SUSSEX AROUND 325 AM EST... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 400 AM EST... * AT 252 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES WEST OF PORT JERVIS TO 62 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT JERVIS...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 574 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 305 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 574 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NYC005-047-059-061-071-079-081-085-087-103-119-181300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0574.131118T0805Z-131118T1300Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX KINGS NASSAU NEW YORK ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND SUFFOLK WESTCHESTER $$

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
PUTNAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 445 AM EST...

* AT 351 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WALDEN TO TO EWING...AND MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT TO HEAR
THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.


LAT...LON 4104 7450 4120 7437 4124 7445 4161 7432
4159 7396 4145 7399 4153 7354 4153 7353
4129 7355 4122 7348 4110 7372 4098 7365
4087 7376 4092 7392 4065 7408 4060 7405
4049 7425 4060 7422 4059 7446 4097 7429
TIME...MOT...LOC 0854Z 273DEG 37KT 4163 7415 4093 7440
4033 7474

$

GOODMAN


 

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..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BRONX...FAIRFIELD...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NASSAU...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...QUEENS AND WESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES... AT 404 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF NEWBURGH TO SUFFERN TO MADISON TO NORTH BRUNSWICK TOWNSHIP TO MORRISVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NYC047-059-081-181015-

/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0060.131118T0934Z-131118T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

434 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 515 AM EST...

* AT 432 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

A SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.

STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JERSEY CITY TO

6 MILES NORTHWEST OF RED BANK...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

THE SQUALL LINE MAY PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT TO

HEAR THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A

STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4054 7395 4057 7394 4057 7402 4059 7401

4061 7404 4064 7405 4070 7401 4071 7397

4074 7396 4080 7377 4078 7376 4080 7376

4088 7348 4087 7346 4063 7342 4060 7343

4058 7356 4059 7378 4054 7393

TIME...MOT...LOC 0933Z 248DEG 49KT 4068 7403 4058 7403

4048 7408 4041 7414

$$

GOODMAN

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Pretty nice to see the GGEM/ECMWF/GFS all showing the threat for T-Day. Unlike the last whiff, this has ensemble support.

 

We have some nice agreement in the ensembles for a -NAO and even some blocking as we move forward

 

test8.gif

Looks east-based but an improvement over what we've been having, that's for sure. Its also good to see the low near the Aleutians.

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