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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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0z Euro is like 30 hours of Lake Effect fetch for NW IN. (The model actually produces precip for only 9-12 of those hours, but still.)

Seems like it's shaping up to be a Lake/Porter centric event though can't dismiss the possibility of effects farther west.

We're not in NAM range yet but the GFS parameters (and probably Euro too) look pretty impressive and I believe this has a chance to be one of the biggest November LES events in many years for the particular area under the gun.

I get to do the public forecast at LOT on Tuesday, should be fun.

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Seems like it's shaping up to be a Lake/Porter centric event though can't dismiss the possibility of effects farther west. Lake temps in the low 50s would normally call for a major reduction in snow amounts near the shore but I don't believe normal rules apply in this case given the magnitude of the incoming cold air. However, 2 things would argue for slightly lower amounts near the shore: 1) strength of low level flow, which looks strong enough to displace greatest accums a little inland and 2) some uncertainty with temps near the shore - temps could hang slightly above freezing for a while which could cut into amounts.

We're not in NAM range yet but the GFS parameters (and probably Euro too) look pretty impressive and I believe this has a chance to be one of the biggest November LES events in many years for the particular area under the gun.

Another thing...assuming something like the GFS parameters verify, it looks similar to past events that have produced snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour. So if the band stalls out then it gives an idea of what the high end potential would look like. A potential negative factor with this setup is that much of the lift may be below the DGZ but I'm not sure how much that will hurt.

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Seems like it's shaping up to be a Lake/Porter centric event though can't dismiss the possibility of effects farther west. Lake temps in the low 50s would normally call for a major reduction in snow amounts near the shore but I don't believe normal rules apply in this case given the magnitude of the incoming cold air. However, 2 things would argue for slightly lower amounts near the shore: 1) strength of low level flow, which looks strong enough to displace greatest accums a little inland and 2) some uncertainty with temps near the shore - temps could hang slightly above freezing for a while which could cut into amounts.

We're not in NAM range yet but the GFS parameters (and probably Euro too) look pretty impressive and I believe this has a chance to be one of the biggest November LES events in many years for the particular area under the gun.

 

One of my profs is a LES guru.  He thinks confidence is highest for LaPorte County, and I have to admit today's runs so far have shifted the 850 winds to slightly west of north, so my confidence for a big event at Valpo is down a bit.

 

But man, whoever gets in it is really gonna get it.  Someone will probably report 12".  Given that it's early season with insane deltaT's and hopefully a wider-than-normal band, maybe we'll manage a good snow here too.

 

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I thinks Stebo is on the correct track to the upcoming winter. For this fall has been more less averaging out WRT temperatures, warm to start and cooler near the end. With every coaster ride there is highs and lows but typically they cancel each other out thus making a neutral end result.  For most brutal cold or heat will be greatly offset by a dump of snow thus making a winter season historic or extremely memorable.

 

As for me living through every snow in the region from start to finish for the last 12 seasons would love to see a continuation of this weather pattern heading into winter. Nature is almost set for winter to begin and the snow and cold will be here before we know it.  As a snow contractor nothing makes me cringe more than artic cold high planting itself overhead for a extended period.....  Desert winter !!  

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One of my profs is a LES guru. He thinks confidence is highest for LaPorte County, and I have to admit today's runs so far have shifted the 850 winds to slightly west of north, so my confidence for a big event at Valpo is down a bit.

But man, whoever gets in it is really gonna get it. Someone will probably report 12". Given that it's early season with insane deltaT's and hopefully a wider-than-normal band, maybe we'll manage a good snow here too.

At first I didn't notice that trend to shift the winds slightly more west on today's runs. It's pretty subtle but there. 925 mb winds try to go N to NNE on the models so as long as that holds up then I'd think it would be hard for the band to focus east of you.

Quick look at the 18z NAM shows colder 850 mb temps than other runs. Delta T's would be pushing 25C if that's the case!

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At first I didn't notice that trend to shift the winds slightly more west on today's runs. It's pretty subtle but there. 925 mb winds try to go N to NNE on the models so as long as that holds up then I'd think it would be hard for the band to focus east of you.

Quick look at the 18z NAM shows colder 850 mb temps than other runs. Delta T's would be pushing 25C if that's the case!

 

Yeah, that's the other thing.  Some runs here and there have winds slightly east of north below 850, which could help focus the band on Porter.

 

Mind if I start a thread for the event?

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Thunder Road - maybe this one could serve as a guide...it's from mid November 2008. 850 mb temps are similar and the synoptic pattern is not all that different from what's coming up. Don't know what lake temps were like but probably somewhere in the ballpark of what we have now.

111808(LakeEffectSnowfall).jpg

Wish there were some amounts near the shore but the amounts a few miles inland are very similar to the amounts farther inland.

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SAI index points to AO moderate to strong positive for 2013-2014.....

 

I have reverse engineered the SAI value based on some publicly available data to an accuracy of R=0.88.  I will not explain due to respect for Cohen's research.

 

I wanted to believe that the SAI, starting out with anomalously large SCE in Eurasia, would indicate solid negative AO for this winter.  However, the anomalies continued to fall back relative to averages throughout the month, which indicated a positive value for the SAI for 2013. I was hoping that there was an "area under the curve effect" that could save the SAI/AO for this year, in other words that the overall net Eurasian snowcover weekly anomalies would average out so that the SAI value would be negative...

 

There is a met student from Penn State tracking daily SCE and he came up with the closest fit slope to 2007...

 

I also have come up with the same closest fit SAI value, 2007...I would expect mean JFM AO to come in around 1.0 to 1.5 based on SAI...

 

I was a bit depressed until I took a look at the MRCC website and realized what a great winter 2007-2008 was for the MW! (I am not much of a historian with this stuff)

 

Most areas in the forum had anywhere from 125% to 350% of normal snowfall in 07/08

 

MDY: #1 Best ever 89"post-8551-0-37544500-1384028428_thumb.gi

ORD: Best since 78 (60")

GRR: # 4 or 5 best

DTW: #4

 

2007 vs. 2013

ENSO: LaNina vs. Neutral

PDO: Negative/Negative

PNA: Negative/Trending Negative

AO: 1.0/ predicted 1.0/1.5

 

I read a paper that said in western Lakes at least that a -PDO and -PNA have the strongest correlations for snowfall (-0.6 to -0.8+) with ENSO/NAO a distant 3rd/4th factors. That would bode well for this year..see below:

 

2008 MRCC Summary:

Record-setting Snow

Snowfall was much above normal across a significant portion of the Midwest north of the Ohio River. Snowfall was four to six times normal from eastern Iowa to eastern Wisconsin (Figure 4). Seasonal snowfall totals at many locations from northern Illinois through southern Wisconsin are already more than twice normal and in the top ten snowiest. At the end of February Madison, WI had accumulated 89.8 inches of snow, smashing the previous seasonal snowfall record of 76.1 inches of snow in the winter of 1977-1978. Rockford, IL had accumulated 66.1 inches of snow by the end of February, making this the second snowiest season so far. The 65.1 inches of snow Rockford received December 1-February 29 was a new record for the winter (December, January, February), eclipsing the old record of 63.4 inches set in 1978-1979. So far this is the 18th snowiest season in Chicago, with 50.9 inches of snow measured at Chicago O'Hare. At the end of February 4 or more inches of snow blanketed the northern two-thirds of the region (Figure 5). 
 

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SAI index points to AO moderate to strong positive for 2013-2014.....

 

I have reverse engineered the SAI value based on some publicly available data to an accuracy of R=0.88.  I will not explain due to respect for Cohen's research.

 

I wanted to believe that the SAI, starting out with anomalously large SCE in Eurasia, would indicate solid negative AO for this winter.  However, the anomalies continued to fall back relative to averages throughout the month, which indicated a positive value for the SAI for 2013. I was hoping that there was an "area under the curve effect" that could save the SAI/AO for this year, in other words that the overall net Eurasian snowcover weekly anomalies would average out so that the SAI value would be negative...

 

There is a met student from Penn State tracking daily SCE and he came up with the closest fit slope to 2007...

 

I also have come up with the same closest fit SAI value, 2007...I would expect mean JFM AO to come in around 1.0 to 1.5 based on SAI...

 

I was a bit depressed until I took a look at the MRCC website and realized what a great winter 2007-2008 was for the MW! (I am not much of a historian with this stuff)

 

Most areas in the forum had anywhere from 125% to 350% of normal snowfall in 07/08

 

MDY: #1 Best ever 89"attachicon.gifSNOWFALL.FEB.2008.gif

ORD: Best since 78 (60")

GRR: # 4 or 5 best

DTW: #4

 

2007 vs. 2013

ENSO: LaNina vs. Neutral

PDO: Negative/Negative

PNA: Negative/Trending Negative

AO: 1.0/ predicted 1.0/1.5

 

I read a paper that said in western Lakes at least that a -PDO and -PNA have the strongest correlations for snowfall (-0.6 to -0.8+) with ENSO/NAO a distant 3rd/4th factors. That would bode well for this year..see below:

 

2008 MRCC Summary:

Record-setting Snow

Snowfall was much above normal across a significant portion of the Midwest north of the Ohio River. Snowfall was four to six times normal from eastern Iowa to eastern Wisconsin (Figure 4). Seasonal snowfall totals at many locations from northern Illinois through southern Wisconsin are already more than twice normal and in the top ten snowiest. At the end of February Madison, WI had accumulated 89.8 inches of snow, smashing the previous seasonal snowfall record of 76.1 inches of snow in the winter of 1977-1978. Rockford, IL had accumulated 66.1 inches of snow by the end of February, making this the second snowiest season so far. The 65.1 inches of snow Rockford received December 1-February 29 was a new record for the winter (December, January, February), eclipsing the old record of 63.4 inches set in 1978-1979. So far this is the 18th snowiest season in Chicago, with 50.9 inches of snow measured at Chicago O'Hare. At the end of February 4 or more inches of snow blanketed the northern two-thirds of the region (Figure 5). 

 

 

I'm confused. You mention the winter of 07-08 but your graphic is for February 2007.  Am I missing something?

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So after seeing a crazy near unanimous forecast of a cold, cold winter earlier this Fall, I have now seen some mild forecasts coming out. And thats fine, it gives a bit of a mix (near complete agreement can be scary). I never like reading an outlook for mild, but I take all outlooks (good and bad) with a grain of salt. I must say, however, that 2007-08 coming up so frequently does more than pique my interest! One very important thing to note to those who live north of I80. There are a lot of us here I know. Those people like me who like winter for all it has to offer are the ones who require a mix of things (cold, snowcover, snow, storms, etc) to make the "perfect winter". However, for those who simply want a huge snowstorm (and I know there are many here), it really doesn't matter what the winters overall pattern is, wet, dry, cold, mild....the chance is always there.

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So after seeing a crazy near unanimous forecast of a cold, cold winter earlier this Fall, I have now seen some mild forecasts coming out. And thats fine, it gives a bit of a mix (near complete agreement can be scary). I never like reading an outlook for mild, but I take all outlooks (good and bad) with a grain of salt. I must say, however, that 2007-08 coming up so frequently does more than pique my interest! One very important thing to note to those who live north of I80. There are a lot of us here I know. Those people like me who like winter for all it has to offer are the ones who require a mix of things (cold, snowcover, snow, storms, etc) to make the "perfect winter". However, for those who simply want a huge snowstorm (and I know there are many here), it really doesn't matter what the winters overall pattern is, wet, dry, cold, mild....the chance is always there.

 

My preference is for prolonged periods of winter weather, not one big storm and then winter is done for awhile. My only wish for this winter is to have December more exciting than the last two. Will be interesting to see if parts of the sub forum can pull off another snowy February.  

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You are right..my mistake...the text is correct..will post the Feb 2008 map when I get on a regular computer.. Looks even better than 07 lol

SAI index points to AO moderate to strong positive for 2013-2014.....

 

I have reverse engineered the SAI value based on some publicly available data to an accuracy of R=0.88.  I will not explain due to respect for Cohen's research.

 

I wanted to believe that the SAI, starting out with anomalously large SCE in Eurasia, would indicate solid negative AO for this winter.  However, the anomalies continued to fall back relative to averages throughout the month, which indicated a positive value for the SAI for 2013. I was hoping that there was an "area under the curve effect" that could save the SAI/AO for this year, in other words that the overall net Eurasian snowcover weekly anomalies would average out so that the SAI value would be negative...

 

There is a met student from Penn State tracking daily SCE and he came up with the closest fit slope to 2007...

 

I also have come up with the same closest fit SAI value, 2007...I would expect mean JFM AO to come in around 1.0 to 1.5 based on SAI...

 

I was a bit depressed until I took a look at the MRCC website and realized what a great winter 2007-2008 was for the MW! (I am not much of a historian with this stuff)

 

Most areas in the forum had anywhere from 125% to 350% of normal snowfall in 07/08

 

MDY: #1 Best ever 89"attachicon.gifSNOWFALL.FEB.2008.gif

ORD: Best since 78 (60")

GRR: # 4 or 5 best

DTW: #4

 

2007 vs. 2013

ENSO: LaNina vs. Neutral

PDO: Negative/Negative

PNA: Negative/Trending Negative

AO: 1.0/ predicted 1.0/1.5

 

I read a paper that said in western Lakes at least that a -PDO and -PNA have the strongest correlations for snowfall (-0.6 to -0.8+) with ENSO/NAO a distant 3rd/4th factors. That would bode well for this year..see below:

 

2008 MRCC Summary:

Record-setting Snow

Snowfall was much above normal across a significant portion of the Midwest north of the Ohio River. Snowfall was four to six times normal from eastern Iowa to eastern Wisconsin (Figure 4). Seasonal snowfall totals at many locations from northern Illinois through southern Wisconsin are already more than twice normal and in the top ten snowiest. At the end of February Madison, WI had accumulated 89.8 inches of snow, smashing the previous seasonal snowfall record of 76.1 inches of snow in the winter of 1977-1978. Rockford, IL had accumulated 66.1 inches of snow by the end of February, making this the second snowiest season so far. The 65.1 inches of snow Rockford received December 1-February 29 was a new record for the winter (December, January, February), eclipsing the old record of 63.4 inches set in 1978-1979. So far this is the 18th snowiest season in Chicago, with 50.9 inches of snow measured at Chicago O'Hare. At the end of February 4 or more inches of snow blanketed the northern two-thirds of the region (Figure 5).

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