Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion

[Ottawa Blizzard]

It looks similar to 2008/2007/1970/1975 moreso than 1983. Back in 2008 we had a nice cold outbreak out West as well for a 2 week period. Areas in the PNW including Vancouver got tremendous amounts of snow, leading to the first White Christmas nationwide in Canada since 1970 i believe. 

 

The models are very confused on the forces acting in the Tropical, there all over the place with the MJO. Overall, the pattern looks similar to what had occurred in 2008. If the EPO continues its negative regime, we should continue seeing Canada getting pooled with cold Arctic Air despite a +AO. The cooler stratosphere should prevent the AO from going negative, and if it does, it shouldn't be persistent. Luckily models do show the PV on our side of the globe. 

 

The STJ may come into play sometimes, depending how the MJO/AAM behave. A train of storms may pound the Pacific NW which could make there way across the East thereafter.. Where they will track and precip type is the question. It depends how well the EPO can confide the effects of the SE Ridge more towards the south. 

 

The storms that interest me are around Dec 2-4 and another potential around Dec 6-10 as the Pacific wave train of storms continues. Lets see. I could see some nice clippers developing in the first 10 ten days of December with a strong Polar Jet. The first one this weekend gives SSC some nice snow

 

DT seemed to be hinting at a storm in the December 9-11 timeframe. I'm hoping there isn't a big storm around the 7-8th given I'm driving to Rochester that weekend. Lake effect associated with the arctic front would be okay, but hopefully there won't be a storm like last night's on that day. Historically, the December 10-13th period has seen some of Toronto's biggest snowstorms, including in 1944, 1992, 1995 and 2000.

Maybe not a similar pattern per say, but it could potentially be the coldest air this early in the season since at least 2000 maybe as far back as 1983.  The key to the magnitude of the outbreak will be if we can get a snow pack down with the systems between now and then. 

It could be safe to say that this could be the biggest arctic outbreak in terms of geographic coverage in quite some time. Canadians and northern tier Americans may be united from coast-to-coast!

[Geos]

More Maps:

 

Definitely had more than 25" here. More like 44". 12" of that was LES that was quite localized on the 28-29th.

[Hoosier]

Maybe not a similar pattern per say, but it could potentially be the coldest air this early in the season since at least 2000 maybe as far back as 1983.  The key to the magnitude of the outbreak will be if we can get a snow pack down with the systems between now and then. 

 

What about 1989?  That had some really cold temps in December.

[Snowstorms]

What about 1989?  That had some really cold temps in December.

 

Yeah it was a cold month. Coldest December in my area I believe. Its reasonable but there were striking differences. Firstly, it featured a -AO/NAO anomaly as opposed to this December which may wind up featuring a more +AO/NAO based on current trends.

 

The Pacific overall resembled very similar to this year, however, it was in the midst of decadal +PDO regime, though it did flip to negative for that Winter.

 

 

It also centered the cold anomalies East of the Plains which so far doesn't look to be the case for the first 10 days of December as modeled now. 

 

Its an interesting analog but I rather use it as a secondary than a primary. 

[Hoosier]

Yeah it was a cold month. Coldest December in my area I believe. Its reasonable but there were striking differences. Firstly, it featured a -AO/NAO anomaly as opposed to this December which may wind up featuring a more +AO/NAO based on current trends.

 

The Pacific overall resembled very similar to this year, however, it was in the midst of decadal +PDO regime, though it did flip to negative for that Winter.

 

Dec 1989.png

 

It also centered the cold anomalies East of the Plains which so far doesn't look to be the case for the first 10 days of December as modeled now. 

 

Its an interesting analog but I rather use it as a secondary than a primary. 

 

Well, I wasn't really focusing on similarities or differences in the pattern but about cold anomalies in this region as 1989 is more recent than 1983.   

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I'm all for a December like 1989 so long as it isn't followed by a January like 1990. Ideally, I'd like a December like 1989 followed by a January like 1994 followed by a February like 1934.

[Stebo]

What about 1989? That had some really cold temps in December.

Yeah that is another one, skipped my mind but that certainly would hold water to the other 2 as well.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Yeah that is another one, skipped my mind but that certainly would hold water to the other 2 as well.

It's certainly looking to be cold the second week of December.

[andyhb]

Euro seems to keep toying with idea of a significant cutter towards the end of the first week of December. 12z run had a bomb going from ~1004 mb at 192 over the Arklatex to 979 mb NE of Lake Superior at 216. Has the initial ULL slowly moving east out of the Pacific NW and then rounds a powerful vort max/jet streak around its periphery (which leads to the aforementioned bomb).

 

Obviously there has been many run to run discrepancies given the range and volatility of the pattern.

[Geos]

I'm not sure a single poster in the subforum will want that track unless you are in the UP.

 

That system is going to cut that much. I think at least central WI will be in for a good snowstorm next week. Teleconnections don't support a far west cutter like the 18z is showing.

[Jonger]

The GFS has had this storm for a while.... I have been hoping for it to change tracks, but it hasn't.... I was enjoying the trails and ski hills getting a good base going, this will wipe a lot of it out.

[Stebo]

The GFS has had this storm for a while.... I have been hoping for it to change tracks, but it hasn't.... I was enjoying the trails and ski hills getting a good base going, this will wipe a lot of it out.

The teleconnections progged for that period do match up well to the GFS and Euro's projections. -PNA/+AO/+NAO

[wisconsinwx]

The teleconnections progged for that period do match up well to the GFS and Euro's projections. -PNA/+AO/+NAO

 

Correct, except the NAO will likely be neutral or weakly negative based on projections, I suppose that keeps weak hope alive for those in the Western Lakes.  That being said, I like a Milwaukee or Green Bay cutter, since it is also a more typical track for early December.

[Powerball]

That system is going to cut that much. I think at least central WI will be in for a good snowstorm next week. Teleconnections don't support a far west cutter like the 18z is showing.

 

Christmas Blizzard 2009.

 

Not saying this storm will be like 12/25/09, but it is an example of a storm that "defied" teleconnections (the one where a couple mets said point blank there was no way it would cut that far west).

[Jonger]

Its nothing to really get all that upset over, the pattern after it passes is VERY cold and looks to lock in. It will be Dec 7th after the storm passes, which is still kind of early for a consistent cold trough to root itself, wavelengths are still pretty long this time of year.

[Stebo]

Its nothing to really get all that upset over, the pattern after it passes is VERY cold and looks to lock in. It will be Dec 7th after the storm passes, which is still kind of early for a consistent cold trough to root itself, wavelengths are still pretty long this time of year.

Yes the wavelengths are long but they are also progressive which would lead be to be skeptical of any troughing or ridging locking for a prolonged period. That doesn't mean a prolonged period of below or above normal isn't possible, but one where you are significantly below normal or above normal for more than 4 or 5 days like the GFS shows would not be likely. Furthermore with the lack of a significant snow pack across the Plains and Lakes outside of the snow belts would also tell me that the potential of a prolonged cold snap doesn't seem likely. Now if a snow pack can be laid between now and then, the potential would rise some.

[Jonger]

Its nothing to really get all that upset over, the pattern after it passes is VERY cold and looks to lock in. It will be Dec 7th after the storm passes, which is still kind of early for a consistent cold trough to root itself, wavelengths are still pretty long this time of year. Yes the wavelengths are long but they are also progressive which would lead be to be skeptical of any troughing or ridging locking for a prolonged period. That doesn't mean a prolonged period of below or above normal isn't possible, but one where you are significantly below normal or above normal for more than 4 or 5 days like the GFS shows would not be likely. Furthermore with the lack of a significant snowpack across the Plains and Lakes outside of the snowbelts would also tell me that the potential of a prolonged cold snap doesn't seem likely. Now if a snowpack can be laid between now and then, the potential would rise some.

This storm would bring tons of snow to the upper plains, Minnesota, ND, SD and possibly the western UP. Most of Michigan has snowcover now, this storm might wipe out the lower peninsula with high temps peaking at 50 or so.

As for blocking, no idea.

[wisconsinwx]

Yes the wavelengths are long but they are also progressive which would lead be to be skeptical of any troughing or ridging locking for a prolonged period. That doesn't mean a prolonged period of below or above normal isn't possible, but one where you are significantly below normal or above normal for more than 4 or 5 days like the GFS shows would not be likely. Furthermore with the lack of a significant snowpack across the Plains and Lakes outside of the snowbelts would also tell me that the potential of a prolonged cold snap doesn't seem likely. Now if a snowpack can be laid between now and then, the potential would rise some.

 

And to be honest, this potential pattern you are describing is better than the cold locking itself in.  Due to the SE Ridge perhaps being a persistent feature, it should continue to be active with snowstorm opportunities through the first half of the month it looks like, rather than having one storm then shifting to cold and dry.

[Stebo]

This storm would bring tons of snow to the upper plains, Minnesota, ND, SD and possibly the western UP. Most of Michigan has snowcover now, this storm might wipe out the lower peninsula with high temps peaking at 50 or so. As for blocking, no idea.

 

That is too far West if you want cold to lock in here and the snow cover here is limited to the lakes, plus it is high ratio lake effect snow which when compacted doesn't amount to much.

 

And to be honest, this potential pattern you are describing is better than the cold locking itself in.  Due to the SE Ridge perhaps being a persistent feature, it should continue to be active with snowstorm opportunities through the first half of the month it looks like, rather than having one storm then shifting to cold and dry.

 

Yes I would rather we stay active than having one storm and then a prolonged pattern of boredom, which is why those who are harping for -EPO of great significance should look at the past week for an example of what that would look like. Lake effect and a suppressed storm track with a few moisture starved clippers.

[Jonger]

This storm would bring tons of snow to the upper plains, Minnesota, ND, SD and possibly the western UP. Most of Michigan has snowcover now, this storm might wipe out the lower peninsula with high temps peaking at 50 or so. As for blocking, no idea.

 

That is too far West if you want cold to lock in here and the snow cover here is limited to the lakes, plus it is high ratio lake effect snow which when compacted doesn't amount to much.

 

And to be honest, this potential pattern you are describing is better than the cold locking itself in.  Due to the SE Ridge perhaps being a persistent feature, it should continue to be active with snowstorm opportunities through the first half of the month it looks like, rather than having one storm then shifting to cold and dry.

 

Yes I would rather we stay active than having one storm and then a prolonged pattern of boredom, which is why those who are harping for -EPO of great significance should look at the past week for an example of what that would look like. Lake effect and a suppressed storm track with a few moisture starved clippers.

I don't mind an active track, but its Russian roulette with western cutters when the SE ridge is too strong.

[Stebo]

I don't mind an active track, but its Russian roulette with western cutters when the SE ridge is too strong.

 

That is fine, most people love tracking systems around here especially when they are very dynamic ones.

[Geos]

Christmas Blizzard 2009.

 

Not saying this storm will be like 12/25/09, but it is an example of a storm that "defied" teleconnections (the one where a couple mets said point blank there was no way it would cut that far west).

 

That storm was a pretty exciting system and snowfall did quite well around here. But it was a nail bitter until the end.

I will say it is unlikely that it will cut the way the 18z GFS shows it.

[Jonger]

Christmas Blizzard 2009.

 

Not saying this storm will be like 12/25/09, but it is an example of a storm that "defied" teleconnections (the one where a couple mets said point blank there was no way it would cut that far west).

 

That storm was a pretty exciting system and snowfall did quite well around here. But it was a nail bitter until the end.

I will say it is unlikely that it will cut the way the 18z GFS shows it.

I just hope its weaker and doesn't push north as far as its looking, the current path would wipe out all of Michigans snowpack.

[dmc76]

I just hope its weaker and doesn't push north as far as its looking, the current path would wipe out all of Michigans snowpack.

 

It will immediately recover with LES likely behind the system. 

[Jonger]

I just hope its weaker and doesn't push north as far as its looking, the current path would wipe out all of Michigans snowpack.

 

It will immediately recover with LES likely behind the system. 

Eventually it will.... I have a trip planned for the 7th, this storm would be a disaster. Its always hit or miss this early, but it would still be nice to avoid the 2 day torch.

[dmc76]

Eventually it will.... I have a trip planned for the 7th, this storm would be a disaster. Its always hit or miss this early, but it would still be nice to avoid the 2 day torch.

 

Well looks like you are going to have to reschedule unfortunately!! 

[Geos]

I just hope its weaker and doesn't push north as far as its looking, the current path would wipe out all of Michigans snowpack.

 

I think this is going to be a south trender. Cold air is going to be pressing in mid to late week.

Our ridges this month have mostly come out weaker than projected, 4+ days out.

[Harry]

Just a FYI.. 08-09 had a very -EPO that Dec and January.. Not sure where some are getting this idea a -EPO means dry/no storm chances? With THIS what is more important is the PNA. It was a negative in Dec and weakly positive in January. And when the EPO did go back to positive we torched big ala late Dec/Early Jan..

[Stebo]

Just a FYI.. 08-09 had a very -EPO that Dec and January.. Not sure where some are getting this idea a -EPO means dry/no storm chances? With THIS what is more important is the PNA. It was a negative in Dec and weakly positive in January. And when the EPO did go back to positive we torched big ala late Dec/Early Jan..

 

Yes, it is the -EPO combined with other teleconnections that would lead to cold and boring. The pattern isn't dependent on the -EPO solely but if it is dominant along with other unfavorable teleconnections things will end up like this past week.

[michsnowfreak]

Just a FYI.. 08-09 had a very -EPO that Dec and January.. Not sure where some are getting this idea a -EPO means dry/no storm chances? With THIS what is more important is the PNA. It was a negative in Dec and weakly positive in January. And when the EPO did go back to positive we torched big ala late Dec/Early Jan..

We had a deep snowpack build up in Dec, torched away around new years, then an even deeper snowpack buildup in January. This time, I will take the torch before the snowpack is even laid down, then get an epic pack