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North Indian Ocean Cyclone season 2013


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i would like to see some better confirmation myself, just from looking at that lady reporter near the eye of the storm, who looks like she was getting blown around by more than 200kph winds.

Saw that as well, she was really getting hit with some serious gusts. She was also reporting from about 20km inland, wind at the coast would be more impressive.

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just saw there was an automated observing site there near landfall. only problem is, the indian government seems like they make it such a pain for outsiders to get the data.

 

http://inet.nio.org/mid/Gopalpur_AWS/

 

but given the obs and the radar down there, this site had the eye right over them. question is, at 1750z, their observation was 938hPa and the winds were 22 m/s with a south wind. so what would the extrapolated center pressure be from that? 930-935?

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just saw there was an automated observing site there near landfall. only problem is, the indian government seems like they make it such a pain for outsiders to get the data.

 

http://inet.nio.org/mid/Gopalpur_AWS/

 

but given the obs and the radar down there, this site had the eye right over them. question is, at 1750z, their observation was 938hPa and the winds were 22 m/s with a south wind. so what would the extrapolated center pressure be from that? 930-935?

good find

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Hello :)  Please forgive me if I shouldn't be posting this here, but there are some great updates further down past the OP (as well as some good info in the OP in regard to updates) and a few pictures.  I thought y'all might be interested to look at it.   If this isn't okay to be posting, please let me know so I know for the future.

 

 

http://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments/1o827g/cyclone_phailin_watch_thread/

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Hello :)  Please forgive me if I shouldn't be posting this here, but there are some great updates further down past the OP (as well as some good info in the OP in regard to updates) and a few pictures.  I thought y'all might be interested to look at it. If this isn't okay to be posting, please let me know so I know for the future.

Your welcome to post anything that is on topic to the thread. Thanks for this resource!
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From reddit page.  It's amzing if thats true because the Indian ocean doesn't average too many cyclones. When they do form they're usually intense though.

 

 

wenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.)

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From reddit page.  It's amzing if thats true because the Indian ocean doesn't average too many cyclones. When they do form they're usually intense though.

 

Yes, many of the deadliest cyclones on record have occurred in that area. Same thing that happens with tornadoes, especially in Bangladesh. Tornadoes are fairly rare, but when they do strike they're extraordinarily deadly. I've not done the math so I don't have exact figures, but a significant percentage of the world's tornado deaths occur in Bangladesh and, to a lesser extent, India.

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Yes, many of the deadliest cyclones on record have occurred in that area. Same thing that happens with tornadoes, especially in Bangladesh. Tornadoes are fairly rare, but when they do strike they're extraordinarily deadly. I've not done the math so I don't have exact figures, but a significant percentage of the world's tornado deaths occur in Bangladesh and, to a lesser extent, India.

 

Deadliest tornado in world history was April 26th, 1989 in Bangladesh, killed nearly twice as many as the Tri-State tornado.

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Just coming up for air after being deep in my own chases...

Gopalpur measured 49 kt (probably 10-min) gusting to 74 in the front eyewall and 938 mb in the eye. There's no wind data from the backside.

I'm a little surprised at such tepid data. I wasn't expecting 100 kt sustained or something crazy like that, but was expecting at least a value that corrects to a 1-min hurricane wind. James and I (since we were together yesterday) discussed it, and we think that outer eyewall got too strong and just really sapped the energy from the inner one, bottom line. James was in a typhoon on Okinawa last year that also had a spectacular multiple-concentric-eyewall presentation on radar and satellite-- we refer to it as "Cinnabun"-- but like this Indian cyclone, it arrived with surprisingly lame winds, given the central pressure (which was very low).

Interestin'.

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Just coming up for air after being deep in my own chases...

Gopalpur measured 49 kt (probably 10-min) gusting to 74 in the front eyewall and 938 mb in the eye. There's no wind data from the backside.

I'm a little surprised at such tepid data. I wasn't expecting 100 kt sustained or something crazy like that, but was expecting at least a value that corrects to a 1-min hurricane wind. James and I (since we were together yesterday) discussed it, and we think that outer eyewall got too strong and just really sapped the energy from the inner one, bottom line. James was in a typhoon on Okinawa last year that also had a spectacular multiple-concentric-eyewall presentation on radar and satellite-- but like this Indian cyclone, it arrived with surprisingly lame winds, given the central pressure (which was very low).

Interestin'.

 

I highly, highly, highly doubt the station was able to get an accurate measurement of the peak winds.  It probably failed at 49 KT.

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Well this is interesting ," India met dept win battle over forecasts". I have to agree with them in that Phailin never should have been compared to Katrina, it's IKE was never in that category as stated earlier in this thread. http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/cyclone-phailin-india-meteorological-department-wins-battle-over-forecasts-431657?pfrom=home-otherstories

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Well this is interesting ," India met dept win battle over forecasts". I have to agree with them in that Phailin never should have been compared to Katrina, it's IKE was never in that category as stated earlier in this thread. http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/cyclone-phailin-india-meteorological-department-wins-battle-over-forecasts-431657?pfrom=home-otherstories

The IKE was only so high with Katrina because of the size of the windfield (see Sandy for reference) and the IMD had the radius of tropical storm force winds and about 50-60% less than it actually was in all quadrants. They also got lucky with the ERC right before landfall, they underestimated the intensity pretty much the entire time and then when the storm weakens right before landfall (and still had a pressure of about 935mb at landfall) they claim a so called"victory". I would've had a big problem with that if they would've downplayed the storm to the point of not taken any precautions, fortunately though they took every necessary measure to ensure the people's safety so it's all about pride now, which is fine by me :). Overall, this storm was very likely a big and mean 160 mph storm at some point.
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The IKE was only so high with Katrina because of the size of the windfield (see Sandy for reference) and the IMD had the radius of tropical storm force winds and about 50-60% less than it actually was in all quadrants. They also got lucky with the ERC right before landfall, they underestimated the intensity pretty much the entire time and then when the storm weakens right before landfall (and still had a pressure of about 935mb at landfall) they claim a so called"victory". I would've had a big problem with that if they would've downplayed the storm to the point of not taken any precautions, fortunately though they took every necessary measure to ensure the people's safety so it's all about pride now, which is fine by me :). Overall, this storm was very likely a big and mean 160 mph storm at some point.

What was Katrina's wind speed at LF? I believe their estimate of surge was pretty spot on, remember Katrina's damage was mostly surge related. I agree with them the comparisons to Katrina were wrong. The wind speed issue I agree with you.
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What was Katrina's wind speed at LF? I believe their estimate of surge was pretty spot on, remember Katrina's damage was mostly surge related. I agree with them the comparisons to Katrina were wrong. The wind speed issue I agree with you.

Katrina made landfall as a 135 mph storm but given the size and strengths just 24 hours before that the storm had already channeled a tremendous amount of water and places east of the center had a 15 foot storm surge. It's also worth noting that being that Phailin had a relatively small core compared to the overall size of the storm (as opposed to the more "Annular" Katrina) it was never going to have a 20 foot surge.
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Katrina made landfall as a 135 mph storm but given the size and strengths just 24 hours before that the storm had already channeled a tremendous amount of water and places east of the center had a 15 foot storm surge.

Katrina storm surge was above 20 feet in Mississippi.  Biloxi River at Wortham recorded 26 feet - http://www.srh.weather.gov/lix/?n=psh_katrina

 

This report says 25-28 ft storm surge in Mississippi - worst storm surge in U.S. history?  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/

 

A lot of the focus with Katrina was in New Orleans, but coastal Mississippi got absolutely hammered.

 

Oddly enough, Camille in 1969 hit the exact same area with storm surge of 24 ft in Pass Christian, MS

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Just coming up for air after being deep in my own chases...

Gopalpur measured 49 kt (probably 10-min) gusting to 74 in the front eyewall and 938 mb in the eye. There's no wind data from the backside.

I'm a little surprised at such tepid data. I wasn't expecting 100 kt sustained or something crazy like that, but was expecting at least a value that corrects to a 1-min hurricane wind. James and I (since we were together yesterday) discussed it, and we think that outer eyewall got too strong and just really sapped the energy from the inner one, bottom line. James was in a typhoon on Okinawa last year that also had a spectacular multiple-concentric-eyewall presentation on radar and satellite-- we refer to it as "Cinnabun"-- but like this Indian cyclone, it arrived with surprisingly lame winds, given the central pressure (which was very low).

Interestin'.

 

didn't that sensor read in meters/sec, not knots? it was like 46m/s at the top speed (100mph).

 

the 49 kt was when the eye came through to the south, which is why I was wondering how much deeper it was giving the 22m/s at 938. i know there's some conversion at that point where you can extrapolate from winds/pressure at a location to the center pressure where winds would be 0. i forget what that equation was to make that conversion.

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Here are the data. The anemometer functioned and took measurements through to the eye-- you can see the velocity dip coinciding with the lowest pressure:

http://inet.nio.org/mid/Gopalpur_AWS/

I'm not suggesting 49 kt is representative of the storm's intensity at the time. Surface obs almost never are. But these data do make me wonder if this thing was a Cat 4 at landfall.

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