ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 One thing to remember it only takes one big TC in either the WPAC and ATL to play around with the pattern. That certainly cannot be figured out this early. Yep, its very volatile in mid to late autumn since the thermal gradients are increasing rapidly (cause the PJ to get stronger and more equatorward) but the tropical season is still relatively active...so you can get a lot of weird stuff going on. One of the reasons that Cohen's stuff makes sense too...the massive area of snowpack advancing southward in Siberia promotes surface cooling (and strengthening of siberian high) which enhances the thermal gradient further south than it would be otherwise...so the PJ gets shunted south. A shunted south PJ has a better chance of transporting heat to the high latitudes via wave breaking or sucking in a TC from lower latitudes. That helps in disrupting the PV which is what we want obviously going into winter. Our fear is a well-formed PV that goes all the way into the stratosphere and just locks in for months like 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Why don't we move this kind of stupid Kevin talk to the banter thread lol. You're a moderator......... It would be funny if we got Kevin's 20-40 days of HHH starting on October 2nd. But, torch or not, you can't deny the weather's just been gorgeous. 67.9/58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Yep, its very volatile in mid to late autumn since the thermal gradients are increasing rapidly (cause the PJ to get stronger and more equatorward) but the tropical season is still relatively active...so you can get a lot of weird stuff going on. One of the reasons that Cohen's stuff makes sense too...the massive area of snowpack advancing southward in Siberia promotes surface cooling (and strengthening of siberian high) which enhances the thermal gradient further south than it would be otherwise...so the PJ gets shunted south. A shunted south PJ has a better chance of transporting heat to the high latitudes via wave breaking or sucking in a TC from lower latitudes. That helps in disrupting the PV which is what we want obviously going into winter. Our fear is a well-formed PV that goes all the way into the stratosphere and just locks in for months like 2011-2012. That's an interesting theory and may contribute to the correlation. I'm not sure the part about the TC link has been written up or examined but that doesn't mean it's not valid. We were looking pretty much exclusively at the EP flux mechanism when I was there years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 just storm after storm lining up out there Well having them buried into mainland China like this next one won't help. I mean a well formed TC curving east of Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Giving a bit more thought it's curious that the SAI would correlate better than just a straight areal snowcover metric if the TC absorption played a big role, considering the tropical season is waning in general. But I retain skepticism of the SAI and think sample size might play in a bit as to why it does better currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 That's an interesting theory and may contribute to the correlation. I'm not sure the part about the TC link has been written up or examined but that doesn't mean it's not valid. We were looking pretty much exclusively at the EP flux mechanism when I was there years ago. The TC phenomenon would not be common enough to make it a main contributor to the correlation...but physically it would make sense that it helps in keeping a disrupted PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 That's an interesting theory and may contribute to the correlation. I'm not sure the part about the TC link has been written up or examined but that doesn't mean it's not valid. We were looking pretty much exclusively at the EP flux mechanism when I was there years ago. There is definitely that EP or bottom up way to disturb the PV. Thinking from a potential temp view where you have "cold dome shapes" to the potential temp fields when looking at a cross section in the atmosphere. I was just talking with a met today about October. Since the MJO may not really cooperate in the near term, we'll need perhaps an extratropical type transition to really break up the PV and force some ridging near AK. Talking about the next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 If they are shutting off servers then there are going to be issues with restart. It's not negotiable. There is no $$ to pay any costs. End of story. Ironically where I work there is funding thanks to multi year appropriations. But I recall in past years as a potential shut down was pending being told it would be illegal to use any govt equipment such as phones or log into servers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 It's not negotiable. There is no $$ to pay any costs. End of story. Ironically where I work there is funding thanks to multi year appropriations. But I recall in past years as a potential shut down was pending being told it would be illegal to use any govt equipment such as phones or log into servers.that's BS, the electric bill is not paid daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Well having them buried into mainland China like this next one won't help. I mean a well formed TC curving east of Japan. Well it doesn't bury into China parabolic recurve into the Aleutians after being on the edge of the China coast per the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 It's not negotiable. There is no $$ to pay any costs. End of story. Ironically where I work there is funding thanks to multi year appropriations. But I recall in past years as a potential shut down was pending being told it would be illegal to use any govt equipment such as phones or log into servers. i think it's crap. go through your noaa links. i have plenty of obscure links that are definitely non-essential and not necessary to "protect life and property" that are still working fine. and who knows what percentage of noaa servers are run in-house vs out-sourced to private IT companies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 Well it doesn't bury into China parabolic recurve into the Aleutians after being on the edge of the China coast per the Euro Fitow? That is going south of Shanghai. The current one (Sepat) isn't really going to do much. Edit that's the forecast track. It still may go east of Shanghai, but I think the classic heat transport north won't happen this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 It's not negotiable. There is no $$ to pay any costs. End of story. Ironically where I work there is funding thanks to multi year appropriations. But I recall in past years as a potential shut down was pending being told it would be illegal to use any govt equipment such as phones or log into servers.that's BS, the electric bill is not paid daily But what is paid through 9/30 was budgeted and 10/1 onward so far isn't. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Fitow? That is going south of Shanghai. The current one (Sepat) isn't really going to do much. Does not bury into China though, the energy recurves up to the Aleutins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 i think it's crap. go through your noaa links. i have plenty of obscure links that are definitely non-essential and not necessary to "protect life and property" that are still working fine. and who knows what percentage of noaa servers are run in-house vs out-sourced to private IT companies. This reinforces my thinking that the decision is primarily concerning security. Non-essential mainline sites are taken down. The obscure sites probably are locked in their own DMZ on the NOAA network posing only a local risk and thus not requiring round the clock staffed surveillance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Does not bury into China though, the energy recurves up to the Aleutins The enhanced thermal gradient from the early snowcover and resultant compressed jet is probably helping with that dramatic recurve. From a heat transport to the pole perspective, not sure if it helps that it go up into the Aleutians or if it would be better moving up into N China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 Does not bury into China though, the energy recurves up to the Aleutins Right, see my edit. It builds the ridge west of where we want it, if you believe the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 The enhanced thermal gradient from the early snowcover and resultant compressed jet is probably helping with that dramatic recurve. From a heat transport to the pole perspective, not sure if it helps that it go up into the Aleutians or if it would be better moving up into N China. Best route is east of Japan and east of Kamchatka towards the Aleutians. That way it builds a big ridge in the GOA and into AK. Most of the storms this season actually have gone west by a large margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Right, see my edit. It builds the ridge west of where we want it, if you believe the op run. Oh I know just seeing some heat transport up and out is what I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 The other thing you will see is an enhanced PAC jet. With that vortex to the north, a screaming PAC jet should develop over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 This reinforces my thinking that the decision is primarily concerning security. Non-essential mainline sites are taken down. The obscure sites probably are locked in their own DMZ on the NOAA network posing only a local risk and thus not requiring round the clock staffed surveillance. we'll probably never get a straight answer...but imo, it's just a simple case-by-case administrative decision. the entire epa website is still functioning fine. there's tons of examples of inconsistencies. obviously...there are plenty of people involved in the process...and they aren't all following the same exact protocol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 we'll probably never get a straight answer...but imo, it's just a simple case-by-case administrative decision. the entire epa website is still functioning fine. there's tons of examples of inconsistencies. obviously...there are plenty of people involved in the process...and they aren't all following the same exact protocol. Thank God this link works. This should save life and property. http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 The other thing you will see is an enhanced PAC jet. With that vortex to the north, a screaming PAC jet should develop over the next 10 days. More great news! Thanks Scott! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 More great news! Thanks Scott! Will you relax. It goes to show you the increased thermal gradient developing. Thanks to tropics and southward sinking Polar jet which is expected with snowpack increase over Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 76 downtown Greenfield, some clouds filtering in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 The other thing you will see is an enhanced PAC jet. With that vortex to the north, a screaming PAC jet should develop over the next 10 days. what does this mean for sensible weather in New England? (if anything) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 76 downtown Greenfield, some clouds filtering in. 70.6/59 here at the Pit. Gorgeous day out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 It's not negotiable. There is no $$ to pay any costs. End of story. Ironically where I work there is funding thanks to multi year appropriations. But I recall in past years as a potential shut down was pending being told it would be illegal to use any govt equipment such as phones or log into servers. i think it's crap. go through your noaa links. i have plenty of obscure links that are definitely non-essential and not necessary to "protect life and property" that are still working fine. and who knows what percentage of noaa servers are run in-house vs out-sourced to private IT companies. Good point about outsourcing. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 October meltdown for Toronto blizzweenie. Getting an early start this year. Nothing can top the PAC jet from 06/07 that was brutal if I remember correctly but that was mid winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 what does this mean for sensible weather in New England? (if anything) Well it's actually most active near the dateline which isn't what you want for cold weather, but again...it's not meant to indicate anything other than Siberia and AK staying cool. There are signs this may move west after mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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