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MaineJayhawk

NNE Autumn 2013 Thread

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Well, this morning we’ve had some snow, snow grains, and sleet falling, and it produced the first accumulating snow of the season (or at least the first one I’ve been home to witness and document).  It couldn’t be more on track in terms of average - the mean for first accumulating snowfall in my data is October 26th ± 12 days, and that mean will of course stay put with the incorporation of this new data point.  There certainly appears to be some moisture moving into the area based on the radar, so we’ll see if anything else happens today in terms of frozen precipitation:

 

26OCT13A.gif

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Stowe is a magical place for a snow lover. How many total days w flakes are there....90?

 

Indeed Stowe is a pretty amazing place if you like snow, and I’d say the number you’re looking for is right in that range.  You can actually get the numbers from the CoCoRaHS Water Year Summaries page.  They tabulate a number automatically (“Days With Snowfall”) that is very close to what you want.  However, since their number only includes the days with measurable snowfall, not the days with traces of snowfall, the final thing to do to get at least the baseline number for the parameter “Days With Flakes In The Air” is to add in the days with trace values of snow.  That final number is still a bit of an underrepresentation for “Days With Flakes In The Air” since it won’t include days with flakes but no trace, but it should be close.  For example, using the past three years of CoCoRaHS data for this location, the mean comes out right at 90 ± 13 days.  I’d think Stowe Village would be similar, and of course the number for the mountain itself is probably even higher.

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Woohoo... wintery Saturday morning out there.  First accumulating snowfall in the Village at 750ft.

I've got 1/4" so far and its not much, but it's putting a little kick in my step this morning.

 

Amazing that it is 40/34 at BTV at 300ft, but 32/28 and -SN at MVL at 730ft.

 

 

 

 

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Woohoo... wintery Saturday morning out there.  First accumulating snowfall in the Village at 750ft.

I've got 1/4" so far and its not much, but it's putting a little kick in my step this morning.

 

Amazing that it is 40/34 at BTV at 300ft, but 32/28 and -SN at MVL at 730ft.

 

attachicon.gifIMG_7346_edited-1-1.jpg

 

attachicon.gifIMG_7344_edited-1-1.jpg

 

Nice.  The dust on my screen makes it look like it's snowing harder than that.

 

A touch on Wildcat and the whites.

 

http://www.skiwildcat.com/live-summit-cam.html

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Looking sweet out there Powederfreak, I don't have that here, but did awake to some snowflakes on some surfaces! It certainly looks and feels like it would like produce some more, but I have learned I need to patient here in my valley location. Would love to see some flakes actually falling from the sky, and I know what you mean about the extra step, just seeing a little bit on the ground got me excited!

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Its still spitting snow but accumulations have stopped and/or actually started to melt back, especially on the tree branches and elevated surfaces. 

 

We were down to 32F at the period of steadiest snow (MVL hit 3/4sm visibility, so under 1 mile) but have now recovered to 34.4F.  I see MVL has even gone over to reporting -RN though at least out my window its still wet snow.

 

Final snowfall will be 0.3" this morning.

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Mt Lafayette RWIS is reporting -ZR.

 

Pretty cool, mini-SWFE, lol.

 

One of those where BTV in the valley had southerly winds all night and no decoupling (thus being 40F) and then here east of the Greens it looked like we were able to decouple a bit early on in the night...it was 28F at 3am so the surface east of the mountains here was cold enough to support the snow.  Usually with temps of 26F up at the summit of Mansfield, we wouldn't be anywhere close to snow this time of year down here (usually need it to be closer to 20F) but with the WAA aloft and a little CAD, it was timed perfectly for the first coating of snow of the season.

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Its still spitting snow but accumulations have stopped and/or actually started to melt back, especially on the tree branches and elevated surfaces.

 

Final snowfall will be 0.3" this morning.

 

We had that transient 0.2” on the elevated snowboard this morning, but it was never enough to even whiten the ground and I doubt I would have caught it if I hadn’t been out there – precipitation has been mostly trending toward rain since then.  I’ve been generally seeing the images from Mt. Mansfield recently for this period of snow, but I just looked at the Bolton Valley Web Cam and there appears to be a decent amount of snow up there as well:

 

26OCT13A.jpg

 

For whatever reason, Bolton’s accumulations at the beginning of last season seemed notably below what we were getting on Mansfield, but it looks like they’ve done OK so far during this stretch – perhaps a bit more of a west side effect.

 

There’s been 0.04” of liquid from this event here so far; some thoughts from BTV this morning for the near term with this system:

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 929 AM EDT SATURDAY...HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR TODAY TO MENTION LIKELY OR GREATER CHANCES MOST AREAS WITH ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. IN ADDITION...ADDED THE LIGHT WORDING QUALIFIER AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

 

This storm has plenty of areal coverage on the national radar map – it’s certainly the main precipitation event in that regard:

 

26OCT13B.gif

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Absolutely dumping at the ski area. Putting ski boots on.

Nice, just saw that on the web cams… I’ve been tossing similar thoughts around all morning…

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Nice, just saw that on the web cams… I’ve been tossing similar thoughts around all morning…

looks like a good slug of moisture coming in... and upstream looks promising at the moment.  probably worth it.  I'd be heading up to stowe this afternoon, had I not left my box-o-ski-stuff in another country...

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J. Spin/PF - how is bolton/mountain road looking as for driving?  is it wet, or slush..?  Want to go have a look/walk around, but haven't got my snow tires on yet (amateur mistake, I know).  

 

Don't want to be "that guy" that ties up traffic sliding off the side of the road.

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J. Spin/PF - how is bolton/mountain road looking as for driving?  is it wet, or slush..?  Want to go have a look/walk around, but haven't got my snow tires on yet (amateur mistake, I know).  

 

Don't want to be "that guy" that ties up traffic sliding off the side of the road.

 

When I chased that epic upslope event on a visit (Feb 2012) there were two cars that got stuck on the steepest portion (just below the timberline lift I think) and we couldn't go any farther. Definitely you don't want to be "that guy" lol.

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J. Spin/PF - how is bolton/mountain road looking as for driving?  is it wet, or slush..?  Want to go have a look/walk around, but haven't got my snow tires on yet (amateur mistake, I know). 

 

Don't want to be "that guy" that ties up traffic sliding off the side of the road.

 

 

I can’t say for sure, but I don’t think it will be too much of a problem – the Bolton Valley Weather Station at 2,100’ is reading ~34 F, so most of the road should just be wet.

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What an awesome morning... skied 2,100 verts top-to-bottom.  The upper half was mid-winter snow, 2-3" of fluffy stuff on top of the dense base from yesterday.

 

This was at the base of the mountain where there was around 1-2" of new snow when I started skinning up the mountain.

 

1379655_10151649738332382_1542551803_n.j

 

Cliff Trail at Stowe... 6 of us tracked this up pretty quickly, haha.

 

1377222_10101708505647850_529256847_n.jp

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What an awesome morning... skied 2,100 verts top-to-bottom.  The upper half was mid-winter snow, 2-3" of fluffy stuff on top of the dense base from yesterday.

 

This was at the base of the mountain where there was around 1-2" of new snow when I started skinning up the mountain.

 

1379655_10151649738332382_1542551803_n.j

:whistle:

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:whistle:

 

I really forgot how this mountain over-produces from what the models show.... all those little 0.01" light green panels on the models moving through NNE that no one pays attention to seem to be producing decent accumulating snows on that mountain the past few days.

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I really forgot how this mountain over-produces from what the models show.... all those little 0.01" light green panels on the models moving through NNE that no one pays attention to seem to be producing decent accumulating snows on that mountain the past few days.

saw some vids thats awesome

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I really forgot how this mountain over-produces from what the models show.... all those little 0.01" light green panels on the models moving through NNE that no one pays attention to seem to be producing decent accumulating snows on that mountain the past few days.

U didnt forget dude

U just like to under forecast

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Posted some pics in the ski thread...what a day!

looks like some synoptic

 

U didnt forget dude

U just like to under forecast

LOL

 stuff now starting on your Mt

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Still in the low 30s in far northern COOS. John at 1st Lake is still hovering around 32F. I see no accums in the webcams, but there's still some -SHSN up there.

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Pretty dreary day here in Lyndonville...have been hovering between 40-42 with on and off light rain/ sleet. Higher elevations of the NEK above 2,000 feet have picked up some light accumulations (less than 1"), but that's about it. 

 

I now have access to the RPM, Euro, and Euro Ens real time, so I will be using it quite a bit during the winter months, especially for upslope/higher elevation events. Looks like its picking up on another 1-2" at the summits through tonight; lets see how it does.

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