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MaineJayhawk

NNE Autumn 2013 Thread

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Luv seeing those pics, Had a freeze here this am 28.6F, Coldest morning of the season, Looks like we will set a few more lows over the next few days

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After this weekend’s potential event, I noticed that the 00Z ECMWF was suggesting an additional opportunity for snow on Monday.  There’s not much in that range on the 06Z GFS, but the 00Z GFS had a similar look to the ECMWF.  I assume the precipitation there is related to the trough during that period in the BTV NWS discussion – they mention how the best dynamics are north of the border, but it looks like another possible event to monitor if there is moisture:

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MOISTURE LIMITED AND BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS TROUGH PASS NORTH OF THE BORDER...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH 20-30 POPS FOR MONDAY WITH PTYPE RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW/RAIN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

 

24OCT13A.jpg

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Looks like I should have went up the Bolton Road last night. I had a feeling as it rained in Winooski but when you looked up the sky had the look of snow in the air. Also I knew the snow levels would be low enough.

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Luv seeing those pics, Had a freeze here this am 28.6F, Coldest morning of the season, Looks like we will set a few more lows over the next few days

I'd like see to a killing frost soon so all the bugs are killed in the wood that needs to be brought into the garage. Hit 34F this a.m.

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I'd like see to a killing frost soon so all the bugs are killed in the wood that needs to be brought into the garage. Hit 34F this a.m.

 

lol, That hill your on does not like to cool off

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Definitely snowing on Stowe and Smuggs ski area web cams. MVL just reporting -RN in the valley though.

Yeah, the mountains really disappeared with this latest impulse of moisture, even raining here in Burlington now – the mountain will probably get hit a bit heavier when this passes through:

 

24OCT13B.gif

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Definitely snowing on Stowe and Smuggs ski area web cams. MVL just reporting -RN in the valley though.

 

Just got a report of some light snow and sleet ( :axe: ) in Gorham, ME. Wet bulbs are in the upper 30s around the WFO, so graupel is definitely going to survive to the ground.

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NWS did mention some graupel or flakes mixed in even in the CPV in their afternoon discussion. I thought I was hallucinating on the way home from Bolton but I guess not.

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lots of long faces today, people pretty crushed by the impending doom of winter :)

 

Beem spitting and snowing all day here by the lake(Memphremagog). No accum down here, just a dusting on the car. Some folks from Holland came into the office this PM with a a nice coating on their rig.

 

Nice to see the steely grey skies of upslope snow, blustery and cold.  Good fall weather to get the blood thickened up.

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We were looking back at some consecutive +/- streaks to compare our current 27-day streak of AOA normal temps to.

 

2 things stood out:

 

Nov-Dec 1989 had 32 straight days of below normal days and some of those were disgusting...

 

But while looking at March 2012, I guess I forgot how MUCH above we really were. We had 5 consecutive days of 30+ degree DEPARTURES with the greatest departure of +37F on March 22nd.

We had the same heat here, but clear dry air made for huge diurnal ranges. Farmington's mildest March days in 120 years records are 80/81/92 on March 20-22, 2012. The minima were just above freezing, though, so the means were in the 25-28F above normal range. Places in N.MN were +40-something in that warmth, with lows 60 or milder.

For above average streaks, I hope I never see another like Feb 8 thru March 25, 2010: 46 cons days above, with 24 of them +10 or milder. No mega heat like 3/12, but at ,my place that March was 0.6F milder than the one two years later.

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Blowin up into the first upslope event of the season! Lol

 

RT 108 in Smugglers Notch from a friend... road still open but becoming slushy as the sun went down.

 

1378097_10202509421443594_729308758_n.jp

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Rain mixed with some mangled flakes when I got home just after 5:00 so I decided to go on a mini snow chase.  Drove up the hill a couple miles.  The elevation where I took this picture is between 1800' and 1900' . 

 

post-363-0-30238600-1382658039_thumb.jpg

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Blowin up into the first upslope event of the season! Lol

 

Awesome AFD... looking forward to a lot more of these this winter.  Seems spot on, though I'd imagine there's another inch or so at 3,500ft+ by now.  Could see something like 4-5" up there tomorrow morning.  As of 8pm, it looks like its starting to wind down and back up a bit on the western slope (echos not making it as far east on the 1.5 degree scan)...pretty much exactly as forecast in the AFD.

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 616 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATE THIS EVENING TO INCREASE

POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST MINOR UPSLOPE EVENT

OF THE SEASON CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS. MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON

WATER VAPOR LOOP ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z

SHOULD ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE. CURRENT

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND FROUDE NUMBERS GREATER THAN ONE SUGGESTING

THAT MOST PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS EVENING HAS OCCURRED FROM THE

SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY LOCAL

OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS 1.5 DEGREE KCXX RADAR SCAN. ACCUMULATIONS

SO FAR HAVE BEEN FROM NOTHING IN THE VALLEYS TO AROUND A HALF INCH

AT 1500 FEET TO 2.5 INCHES ON MOUNT MANSFIELD AT JUST UNDER 4000

FEET. BY 03Z...WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND FROUDE NUMBERS

LOWER...SUGGESTING THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE BLOCKED ALLOWING FOR

PRECIPITATION TO BACK UP ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...HOWEVER MOISTURE

WILL BE DECREASING BY THAT TIME...SO RAIN/SNOW WILL BE TAPERING

OFF. MOUNT MANSFIELD REGIONAL MESONET OBS SHOW FREEZING LEVEL IS

AROUND 2500 FEET BUT IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FEET BY

MIDNIGHT. THUS WHILE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN IN THE

VALLEYS...ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE HIGHER

TERRAIN. LOOKING AT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO

TONIGHT FROM A COATING- HALF INCH OF SNOW ABOVE 1000 FEET...AROUND

AN INCH AT 1500-2000 FEET...TO SEVERAL INCHES ON TOP OF MOUNT

MANSFIELD...MAINLY ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. ROAD SURFACES

SHOULD REMAIN WET...HOWEVER AS SUN SETS AND TEMPERATURES

DROP...PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY FORM IN A FEW LOCATIONS...SO DRIVE

CAUTIOUSLY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING A MAINLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH LOWS

FROM 25 TO 35 DEGREES.

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