Martin Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 48hr Visible/Infrared Satellite Blend 0z GFS Winds You should really ask Ian or Randy for a Pro tag at some point now that you've been working at WVEC. Haha good idea! Just in time for winter.... wow according to this, the northeast gets the best winds out of anywhere from this. How is that possible? At that point it would no longer be a pure tropical system. Interaction with a front might boost the winds a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 wow according to this, the northeast gets the best winds out of anywhere from this. How is that possible? That was at a certain hour from that run. As "it" heads north, "it" will interact with a cold front and undergo baroclonic influences. So not purely tropical at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 WPC doesnt like the GFS, track wise at least: CONVECTIVE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWED SOME SPREAD WITH THISSYSTEM AS IT MOVES UP TOWARDS/ASHORE THE GULF COAST, BUT NOTHINGEXTREME FOR THREE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE. THE 00Z GFS WAS ON THEEASTERN FRINGE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THEGUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE CLUSTERING. A NON-GFS COMPROMISE LIESWITHIN THE OVERALL 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND IS PREFERREDWITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVENATURE. SEE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKSFOR THIS CYCLONE'S LATEST STATUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Nice to have you around! Well...thanks. It's nice to have a track-able TC!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Looks like a drum stick on satellite with that extension of t-storms onto the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 That be cool if it went straight to a 45 knot storm, which early returns in the First Quarter from recon might support... Edit Maybe 55 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 WPC doesnt like the GFS, track wise at least: CONVECTIVE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWED SOME SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES UP TOWARDS/ASHORE THE GULF COAST, BUT NOTHING EXTREME FOR THREE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE. THE 00Z GFS WAS ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE CLUSTERING. A NON-GFS COMPROMISE LIES WITHIN THE OVERALL 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE. SEE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR THIS CYCLONE'S LATEST STATUS. Ordinarily, I would completely understand the idea of not going with the eastern outlier, the gfs. However, even the gfs has so far been a little too far west as even it didn't have it going through the extreme western edge of the Yucatan Channel. I'd say the gfs is going to verify closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Larry.... we have to NOT go with the GFS... I want rain. To far east and you and I miss it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Recon is finding flight-level winds over 65kt with surface winds near 50-55kt. This thing is going to be approaching hurricane status on its first advisory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 HDOBs are softcore prawn 113630 2231N 08726W 9701 00332 0080 +201 +173 078063 067 055 002 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Wake up Josh! you might have something to chase! Just beginning to see the visible this morning, like the outflow to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Larry.... we have to NOT go with the GFS... I want rain. To far east and you and I miss it! Lol! I'm just a friendly, objective messenger. This is going to turn out to be one of the worst Euro busts in a long time! Even the 0Z Thu run, with its somewhat stronger and further east track initially, is going to bust bigtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Special advisory shortly. Will go right to solid TS with hurricane watches to go up part of Gulf coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41326-karen/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Some honking for the Carribean next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Some honking for the Carribean next week The GFS has been consistent the last few days with a NW Caribbean threat...looks interesting, and even though it's the long range GFS, MJO transit supports this. Also, it looks like that shorter than normal long waves will keep ridging a bit north of climo, thus keeping the chances of shear lower than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 As of October 3rd, there is still a finite chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the HGX CWA. Saturday, not counting Steve's Barelycane Jerry, the season is officially over. Although I'd take a badly sheared ugly out of season TC if it'd drop an inch or two on the water oak. I see 1949 was the 8th wettest year ever at Hobby, 71.19 inches of rain, but I can't easily find 3 October 1949 or 10/4/1949 rainfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 As of October 3rd, there is still a finite chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the HGX CWA. Saturday, not counting Steve's Barelycane Jerry, the season is officially over. Although I'd take a badly sheared ugly out of season TC if it'd drop an inch or two on the water oak. I see 1949 was the 8th wettest year ever at Hobby, 71.19 inches of rain, but I can't easily find 3 October 1949 or 10/4/1949 rainfall amounts. 1912, storm #6 No recorded cane landfalls for MX west of 95W past Oct 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 As of October 3rd, there is still a finite chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the HGX CWA. Saturday, not counting Steve's Barelycane Jerry, the season is officially over. Although I'd take a badly sheared ugly out of season TC if it'd drop an inch or two on the water oak. I see 1949 was the 8th wettest year ever at Hobby, 71.19 inches of rain, but I can't easily find 3 October 1949 or 10/4/1949 rainfall amounts. You should be able to access all archived F6 climate data for free here (once the govt shutdown is over): http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html If it's official data, it will be available there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 1912, storm #6 No recorded cane landfalls for MX west of 95W past Oct 10th. That would be the NWS CRP CWA, but I won't give up all hope for two more weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 The 00Z Multi Model TC Genesis Probabilities continue to suggest the SW Caribbean Sea does have a fairly high chance of developing a storm in the medium to long range. The operational GFS and European have been 'sniffing' that area for potential TC development and their ensembles do suggest lower pressure across the Western half of the Caribbean at that time. It is also noteworthy that an upper ridge is being modeled over the Western/Central Gulf of Mexico as well and once a secondary trough passes next weekend, perhaps conditions may be a bit more conducive for TC development as others have mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 12z GFS develops a tropical system way the heck out in the Atlantic in 5 days.. East of 40W ..that is unusually far east for October.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 A few of the 12z GFS ensemble members and some of the GFS runs the past few days, including the 10/4 18z GFS have a nice Caribbean cruiser in about ten days that is near the Yucatan as a potent looking large tropical cyclone. Obviously fantasy range but this seems to agree well with that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 To be honest, the GFS has been showing a big Caribbean cyclone at the 10+ day range on and off for about 3 weeks now. I really wouldn't put too much stock in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EASTERN TROPICALATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THISLOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARDAT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUMCHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 5 DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 the area of disturbed weather north of Puerto Rico may need to be watched as admittedly this will start out as an ET system that transitions into something tropical and threatens the Carolina Coast next week and has been showing this for several runs in a row but as we've seen in 2013 one can't say it will develop even though the models say so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Besides Euro suggesting a potential STS Lorenzo and then a freakishly far East TS Melissa (icing on the cake of the STS Lorenzo, a low shear photogenic Atlantic storm Melissa?) Possible suggestions of mid-late October action. Not an MJO master, and I wish the Op was higher amplitude, but Halloween season hijinks maybe? Happened last year. And I won't be bummed about missing the Wilma anniversary w/o a Florida hurricane if there was an end of month or even November hurricane, and I cling tight to the memory (well, I read it somewhere, I was out in the Navy) of 1985's Hurricane Kate for holding out my trademark optimism, that Florida can be slammed past mid-November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 It does look like to me that the original LLC of Karen is pretty much open/dead. However, I am slightly curious about whether or not there could be a new circulation (maybe non-Karen) about due south of the MS/AL border. The thunderstorms seem to have persisted in a concentrated somewhat circular area for several hours as it moves ENE: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/flash-avn-long.html With no vis, it is quite difficult to tell at night. This is probably a longshot, but I thought it to be well worth mentioning after hearing about that possible new LLC last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 The system in the far E Atlantic has a pretty good shot to develop. It had support form the GFS and now has support form the ECMWF. The ECMWF is particularly interesting as it shows the large upper-level trough that will dig in behind it will completely cutoff and drop into the E Caribbean. If that happens, the shear over the system will only be strong temporarily and then relax again as the storm moves N of the Lesser Antilles. The GFS is actually much more unfavorable for a change with no cutoff developing and dropping SW and just a large corridor of upper level westerlies that will shear apart the system. The other system Ed is referring to is not a tropical or subtropical cyclone but just an extratropical low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 ECMWF continues to be bullish on Invest 98L... very favorable environment beyond 120 hours allows for genesis to the NE of the lesser Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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