Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[GaWx]

Did I imagine it, or did the GFS really just totally crap out with 97L?

 

 Yes, it pretty much crapped out on it a number of runs ago. This is the 3rd Invest the GFS has done that to since August (one in August/two in Sep.). For all three, it showed at least a TS hit the US Gulf Coast on multiple runs whereas the Euro had zilch! These three invests were all in the Caribbean at the time the GFS was getting the most excited. So, the Euro has been much more reliable regarding Invests in the Caribbean that turned out to do nothing in the Gulf.

[HurricaneJosh]

Yes, it pretty much crapped out on it a number of runs ago. This is the 3rd Invest the GFS has done that to since August (one in August/two in Sep.). For all three, it showed at least a TS hit the US Gulf Coast on multiple runs whereas the Euro had zilch! These three invests were all in the Caribbean at the time the GFS was getting the most excited. So, the Euro has been much more reliable regarding Invests in the Caribbean that turned out to do nothing in the Gulf.

Ah, OK-- I guess I missed the last couple of runs. I noticed it had gotten weaker, but now it seems like it just went POOF!!

So pathetic. Someone needs to get a shotgun and put the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season out of its misery. It's like a diseased horse sprawled on the side of the pasture.

[Ed Lizard]

18Z FIM gets a minimal tropical storm to Louisiana next weekend.

 

 

12Z GFDL ensembles got me excited until I realized they haven't been run for this weekend's 97L

 

 

 

[GaWx]

Ah, OK-- I guess I missed the last couple of runs. I noticed it had gotten weaker, but now it seems like it just went POOF!!

So pathetic. Someone needs to get a shotgun and put the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season out of its misery. It's like a diseased horse sprawled on the side of the pasture.

 

 Interestingly and kind of ironically: as soon as we talk about the GFS completely going POOF with 97L for a number of runs through 12Z Sunday, the subsequent two runs (18Z Sun and 0Z Mon) actually have a weak closed surface low (~1010 mb) make it into the western GOM this Thu-Fri. Let's see if this is the start of a new trend.

 

Edit: Fwiw (near nothing), the 0Z Monday GFS way out in fantasyland has an interesting scenario with a strong blocking western Atlantic high (persistent Bermuda high displaced to the north, perhaps in response to a strong upper trough near the Rockies) 10/7-14 that directs a developing homegrown tropical low that forms 10/9 near 26N, 68W, and then is directed by that strong high WNWard to near 31N, 76 W on 10/11. Then, it recurves sharply and skirts NC 10/13 before being absorbed by a cold front 10/14 along the NE coast.

[wxtrackercody]

I doubt 97L develops into a tropical cyclone. It has a strung out and weak area of low-level vorticity battling 20 knots of shear with very dry air lurking to the northwest. It has no substantial model support to develop either.

 

Of course, what else would we expect from 2013? 

[HurricaneJosh]

97L looks like a joke. There's no convection. It's bald. Lolz.

[GaWx]

Interestingly and kind of ironically: as soon as we talk about the GFS completely going POOF with 97L for a number of runs through 12Z Sunday, the subsequent two runs (18Z Sun and 0Z Mon) actually have a weak closed surface low (~1010 mb) make it into the western GOM this Thu-Fri. Let's see if this is the start of a new trend.

The 0Z Mon Euro actually now has a very weak sfc low in the NW GOM 10/5 that then moves ENE just off the coast and gets down to 1007 mb (probably not fully tropical) as it crosses the FL panhandle 10/6. Teeny weeny baby steps on the way to being a player or just a tease? You decide.

Edit: the Monday 6z GFS pretty much drops the western Gulf weak low that was on the prior two runs. However, way out in dreamland (10/14), it has a very weak closed (1011 mb) tropical surface low move NWard into the far north FL peninsula from the Atlantic beneath that aforementioned strong northerly displaced Bermudaish high (surface and aloft).

[Ed Lizard]

Silver lining alert on the 97L fail.

 

If it stays a shallow system, while modelling suggests moisture below 700 mb on SE winds probably doesn't quite make it to SETX before the strong weekend front, I am going to remain optimistic, at least a little, on enhanced moisture in place.

 

And I don't just keep my eyes out for EastPac Narda and Octave (cool name, or what) for the 1994 Rosa potential, but only 64 years since a Pacific system crossed Tehuanepec and no doubt brought needed October rain to Southeast Texas.

 

 

In even more trivial news, 11L is now Jerry...

[klw]

We have TS Jerry.

 

Remain calm and I think we may be able to ride this out safely.  

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#JERRY

[phil882]

We have TS Jerry.

 

Remain calm and I think we may be able to ride this out safely.  

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#JERRY

 

NHC is going to have to make some substantial adjustments to their forecast with Jerry, its much further north and east of the current position and forecast as the mid-level vortex has been able to remain vertically coupled with the low-level circulation. 

 

It appears that weak upper-level low that has been gradually decaying is diving southward and providing a temporary relaxation of the shear over Jerry today. 

[wxmeddler]

[Chaser25973]

I've never seen such a stretch of ugly looking TC's before... this is extending years. I think the last time we saw a series of good cans and tropical storms was the super year of 2005. 

[Ed Lizard]

I've never seen such a stretch of ugly looking TC's before... this is extending years. I think the last time we saw a series of good cans and tropical storms was the super year of 2005. 

 

 

I thought Gustav was ok.

 

[thewxmann]

I've never seen such a stretch of ugly looking TC's before... this is extending years. I think the last time we saw a series of good cans and tropical storms was the super year of 2005. 

 

Igor in 2010 was nice. Nothing since then though...

[wxmx]

Dean and Felix were kind of meh...but what would you expect from cat 5 canes?

[phil882]

 Dean and Felix were kind of meh...but what would you expect from cat 5 canes?

 

... I don't think people realize how spoiled we were in 2005, that was a once in a lifetime year. Even the last 4-5 years have been well above normal. Only 2012 and 2013 have been below normal in terms of accumulated energy. 

[phil882]

Jerry has some curved bands and has become decidedly more symmetrical. 

 

 

[Supercane]

... I don't think people realize how spoiled we were in 2005, that was a once in a lifetime year. Even the last 4-5 years have been well above normal. Only 2012 and 2013 have been below normal in terms of accumulated energy. 

 

2012 had an ACE of 133, which is above average (and greater than the ACE of 2011, I might add). Unless you're talking about a different measure of energy?

 

Either way, I certainly agree with your broader point.

[klw]

Igor in 2010 was nice. Nothing since then though...

There was this one for a short spell last fall

[wxtrackercody]

Hmm.

 

Eyewall open to the southeast?

 

[GaWx]

 The 18Z GFS is back to having a closed surface low though weak in the GOM. It moves northerly from 10/3 through 10/5 and "landfalls" in AL.

 

 In fantasyland, it has that western Atlantic couplet of a strong high over a developing TC 10/10, but the TC then recurves E of the CONUS through the end of the run 10/16.

[wxmx]

97L is getting better organized...at least it has convection over the area with the highest low level vorticity and is under a somewhat favorable upper level regime. Mid level vorticity is well displaced to the east still, so I wouldn't expect any sudden strengthening just yet. Next step would be a solid CDO which would rebuild/drag the mid level energy to stack it on top of the low level energy.

[GaWx]

97L is getting better organized...at least it has convection over the area with the highest low level vorticity and is under a somewhat favorable upper level regime. Mid level vorticity is well displaced to the east still, so I wouldn't expect any sudden strengthening just yet. Next step would be a solid CDO which would rebuild/drag the mid level energy to stack it on top of the low level energy.

 

TWO chances went from 10/30 at 2 PM to 20/30 at 8 PM to 30/50 at 2 AM.

 

 The 0Z Tue GFS was another run that had a very weak closed surface low in the GOM fwiw.

[bluewave]

This was the first time since 1994 that we had no Cat 2 hurricane through September.

[AutoPenalti]

97L is getting better organized...at least it has convection over the area with the highest low level vorticity and is under a somewhat favorable upper level regime. Mid level vorticity is well displaced to the east still, so I wouldn't expect any sudden strengthening just yet. Next step would be a solid CDO which would rebuild/drag the mid level energy to stack it on top of the low level energy.

Slow and steady T, slow and steady.

[wxsmwhrms]

The 12Z GFS has come in much more developed with the 97L system.  Gets a low down to sub-1000 mb before making landfall near AQQ in 108 hours.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Tue GFS is certainly an interesting run for the NE GOM with the most robust landfall yet, a 1007 mb symmetrical tropical surface low (it looks like a tropical storm to me) hitting the FL Big Bend Sat. night 10/5-6. Afterward, it stays pretty intact and leads to some strong winds and significant to very heavy/flooding rains in N FL, SE GA, E Carolinas, and E VA 10/6-7. Heaviest rains: ~10" Tallahassee Apalachicola area!

 

 Is this still another false alarm from the GFS? It already did that (TS hits on the US Gulf coast) in  Sep. and Aug. for two different Caribbean invests that ended up never even becoming a TD. What's different about this one is that the system does look more impressive now and the GFS has actually brought it back for a good number of runs now after having dropped it for a couple of days.

 

 As modeled, this would certainly be a significant/interesting weather maker for parts of the SE US. Moreover, there's no way to know whether or not it is actually being underdone, especially considering we're dealing with something over the very warm western Caribbean (~29C/84 F). This is a classic track for early to mid Oct. So, it is quite believable climowise. Maybe we finally have something exciting to watch for the US.

 

 

 

Edit: wxsmwhrms, I see ~1007 mb for the lowest pressure on the 12Z GFS and this is at landfall. It does look rather impressive and well organized though I don't see sub 1,000 mb pressures being modeled. Do you have access to a higher resolution run??

[Superstorm93]

97L doesn't look half bad. Seems to be organizing under the relatively light shear and warm SST's. There is quite a bit of dry air to its west, so I doubt that this will be in any hurry to wind up. Overall, it should be able to develop into a moderate tropical storm before interacting with the large system that will be located over the Central Plains this weekend. 

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

The 12Z GFS has come in much more developed with the 97L system.  Gets a low down to sub-1000 mb before making landfall near AQQ in 108 hours.

Yeah then runs it up the east coast along the stalled out frontal boundry bringing an enhanced rainfall threat.

[wxsmwhrms]

 The 12Z Tue GFS is certainly an interesting run for the NE GOM with the most robust landfall yet, a 1007 mb symmetrical tropical surface low (it looks like a tropical storm to me) hitting the FL Big Bend Sat. night 10/5-6. Afterward, it stays pretty intact and leads to some strong winds and significant rains in N FL, SE GA, E Carolinas, and E VA 10/6-7.

 

 Is this still another false alarm from the GFS? It already did that (TS hits on the US Gulf coast) in  Sep. and Aug. for two different Caribbean invests that ended up never even becoming a TD. What's different about this one is that the system does look more impressive now and the GFS has actually brought it back for a good number of runs now after having dropped it for a couple of days.

 

 As modeled, this would certainly be a significant/interesting weather maker for parts of the SE US. Moreover, there's no way to know whether or not it is actually being underdone, especially considering we're dealing with something over the very warm western Caribbean (~29C/84 F). This is a classic track for early to mid Oct. So, it is quite believable climowise. Maybe we finally have something exciting to watch for the US.

 

Edit: wxsmwhrms, I see ~1007 mb for the lowest pressure on the 12Z GFS and this is at landfall. It does look rather impressive and well organized though I don't see sub 1,000 mb pressures being modeled. Do you have access to a higher resolution run??

 

I am looking at it on weatherbell. Bottoms out at 999 mb at 84 hours, 1001 mb at landfall at 108 hours over AQQ.

 

Interestingly, Canadian is still very weak and farther west.