LakeEffectKing Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 This zit is ripe for popping: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 Got excited until I saw the IR. The late-day visibles always exaggerate stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Dont know why they demoted the lemon... Trivia stuff: One record was broken this season...the westernmost cyclogenesis in the basin with TD8...it will be hard to break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Got excited until I saw the IR. The late-day visibles always exaggerate stuff. late day viisibles tend to throw some shadows and make things look more impressive than they really are.....however, have I detected a slight loss of latitude with the last scans??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Its elongated to the NE, but convection is in the SW lobe...NE half is losing definition as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 LOL. That thing puts Don to shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 That's an awfully crappy WV image of the Gulf for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 That's an awfully crappy WV image of the Gulf for September. Welcome to the desert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 Welcome to the desert Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Global ACE has been below average for awhile now... probably something to do with the PDO switch (and potentially global warming). Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 Global ACE has been below average for awhile now... probably something to do with the PDO switch (and potentially global warming). Yes You're attributing the lull to climate change? Seems like a rather bold correlation to draw. Despite the unbelievable crappiness of this year, I think it's a bit much to attribute what's basically a pinprick in the grand scheme to such a large-scale evolutionary process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Global ACE has been below average for awhile now... probably something to do with the PDO switch (and potentially global warming). Is the global warming thing a joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 You're attributing the lull to climate change? Seems like a rather bold correlation to draw. Despite the unbelievable crappiness of this year, I think it's a bit much to attribute what's basically a pinprick in the grand scheme to such a large-scale evolutionary process. And here I thought global warming contributed to increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes. *shrug* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 And here I thought global warming contributed to increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes. *shrug* Well, I have absolutely no opinion on this-- but if folks are going to dip a toe in there, I feel it should be qualified somehow, and not just a drive-by comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Well, I have absolutely no opinion on this-- but if folks are going to dip a toe in there, I feel it should be qualified somehow, and not just a drive-by comment. I would be absolutely intrigued to see how global warming decreases the frequency of hurricanes. It's not something I've heard of either before and I would be fascinated by a full explanation. A lot of great minds on here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 I would be absolutely intrigued to see how global warming decreases the frequency of hurricanes. It's not something I've heard of either before and I would be fascinated by a full explanation. A lot of great minds on here... Oh, I've heard arguments both ways. But either way, I don't think a season or two demonstrates a connection that can be meaningfully discussed. These are really long-term, slow processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 The Euro is showing something funny in the Day 5-6 range. Not my cup of tea, but I'm sure interesting to some: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 The Euro is showing something funny in the Day 5-6 range. Not my cup of tea, but I'm sure interesting to some: Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_144.gif How can I tell if that's warm or cold core? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 How can I tell if that's warm or cold core? 850-500 mb temps are usually good indicators of that. Euro has it as a warm core but it's not all that pretty looking. It seems to form off the Carolinas so if anything were to develop, it's "tropical" characteristics will be short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 the area on the Euro in 5 days is the area in the eastern Gulf right now, could become interesting if the dry air doesn't get too involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 0z GGEM shows something along the east coast 0z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 0z GGEM shows something along the east coast GEM picked this up quite early, much like it did Sandy. The fact that the Euro is hinting at something too makes it interesting considering that it picked up on Sandy early as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Posting the GGEM is equivalent of posting spam. It overdoes everything. It's Op run is not supported by its Ensembles either. Same for the Euro Ensembles vs its Op run. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNM&hh=156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Posting the GGEM is equivalent of posting spam. It overdoes everything. It's Op run is not supported by its Ensembles either. Same for the Euro Ensembles vs its Op run. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNM&hh=156 I agree that the op. CMC is pretty bad and usually overdoes things. However, don't forget that it did best with Gabrielle. I know that's not saying too much since the gfs and Euro had essentially nothing, but I'm just saying it has found the nut on occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 0z GGEM shows something along the east coast 0z GGEM Euro has 1000 mb low making landfall just S of NYC in New Jersey at 156 hours... At 120 hours, Euro has small area of hurricane force sustained 10 meter winds North of the low, but, sadly, weakens it through landfall. Gale to storm force winds on immediate coast at hour 144. Part of Long Island would still ahve 40-45 knot onshore winds at Hour 156 at system landfalls. Amazing if NYC area gets 3 TCs/ sub-TCs in 3 years, and Florida goes eight years w/o a hurricane. Everyone wants a tight core Florida major, but failing that, a New Jersey sub-tropical storm (and I believe it it did achieve hurricane force winds there is no such term as a sub-tropical hurricane) with TS conditions on the Long Island and New Jersey coast would be a decent consolation prize. Edit to Add: No Joe Bastardi tweets yet. Many false positives, but rarely does a system develop w/o a JB tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Sandy. Sandy Sandy Sandy. It seems everytime a storm shows up on a model over the past year whether its a noreaster, blizzard or tropical system, people automatically want to compare the situation to Sandy no matter how different it is. Its annoying and bothersome for those of us that actually lived through Sandy and its after effects ( and not from the sidelines like most of you). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Sandy Sandy Sandy. It seems everytime a storm shows up on a model over the past year whether its a noreaster, blizzard or tropical system, people automatically want to compare the situation to Sandy no matter how different it is. Its annoying and bothersome for those of us that actually lived through Sandy and its after effects ( and not from the sidelines like most of you). Sunny did not compare it to Sandy, only pointed out where GGEM did a reasonable job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 TS conditions on the Long Island and New Jersey coast would be a decent consolation prize. Anyone hoping for this again for us needs their head examined. Sorry. I was born in Flushing, grew up in Massapequa, missed 5 days of school in the 1978 Blizzard, saw cable TV for the first time when we evac'd for Belle, and missed Gloria in the Navy. I have found out, the house corner of Curlew and Leewater in Nassau Shores I grew up in, it did flood in Sandy, but was repaired, on the market, asking half of million, which is double what a house of similar square footage would sell for in Houston. BTW, I could root for 1938 to happen next week, but I have remarkably little ability to actually control the weather. Houston wouldn't have had a drought this Summer if my wishes came true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I'm not surprised that the op GFS is not picking up on anything yet. The GFS still had Sandy backing into Cape Cod while the rest of the guidance envelop was into NJ and the Delmarva. Look at the amazing support from the 06z GEFS for a strong low pressure system near NYC next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Sandy Sandy Sandy. It seems everytime a storm shows up on a model over the past year whether its a noreaster, blizzard or tropical system, people automatically want to compare the situation to Sandy no matter how different it is. Its annoying and bothersome for those of us that actually lived through Sandy and its after effects ( and not from the sidelines like most of you). Someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning... Sunny did not compare it to Sandy, only pointed out where GGEM did a reasonable job. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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