HurricaneJosh Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 It looks great, actually! I'm cool being in the WPAC-- not just because of FITOW but the cyclones coming after it in the coming week-- but this 97L is looking pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 We just had recon....low level was broad, ill defined and with multiple centers...not a TD. What dressing would you like with that?TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS EXTENSIVELY INVESTIGATED THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND DETERMINED THAT THE SYSTEM DID NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. I wonder if this may be one of those storms that skips over being a TD and goes right to TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 goodluck out there you staying the whole time? I would love to be in your spot right now It looks great, actually! I'm cool being in the WPAC-- not just because of FITOW but the cyclones coming after it in the coming week-- but this 97L is looking pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I wonder if this may be one of those storms that skips over being a TD and goes right to TS. My guess is that it will go directly to TS status...LLC just needs to get tucked the stronger convection/mid level low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I'm still thinking future Karen will strengthen at least to 50kts in the next 24 hours....mid level low is just barely east of the broad low level center, which is actually good (the LLC being broad and ill defined), so that the current bout of strong convection will probably help the LLC consolidate below the MLC. Upper levels are pretty good with that anticyclone on top of the invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 GFS is a little excessive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 GFS is a little excessive how about post that image for...oh i dont know...the actual landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Tropical - GFS Wind Forecast.png GFS is a little excessive I have no idea who made that graph but I'm assuming those winds are due to the tight gradient between 97L and the strong rigde to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 First map of the year!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 how about post that image for...oh i dont know...the actual landfall? Sure. 4 Day Loop http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5qoRJoF3Uo&hd=1 18z GFS Gusts 4am Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 This actually looks really decent now with -80C tops. I imagine if this keeps up, the LLC would probably gravitate towards the convective burst and begin to organize/strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Sure. 4 Day Loop http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5qoRJoF3Uo&hd=1 18z GFS Gusts 4am Sun Your Pensacola is about a 3.5 hours' drive off from where it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 First map of the year!!! Nice to have you around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Your Pensacola is about a 3.5 hours' drive off from where it should be. Haha yea I know I just threw this together real quick for the heck of it. Data sources are correct though regardless of marker placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMimmi Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Im in Fort Walton/Destin area and storms like this can intensify overnight just like Hurricane Opal did back Oct 4 1995 , I went to sleep thinking it would be a cat 1 to wake up to a monstor. I know it wont be like that but this one looks better tonight for sure than it did.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Im in Fort Walton/Destin area and storms like this can intensify overnight just like Hurricane Opal did back Oct 4 1995 , I went to sleep thinking it would be a cat 1 to wake up to a monstor. I know it wont be like that but this one looks better tonight for sure than it did.... i think it will be a little while before significant intensification until the mlc and llc can align, but it sure does looks good I agree. looks can be deceiving though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 02/2345 UTC 20.1N 85.3W T2.0/2.0 97L -- Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 early intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I didn't even have to throw anything together... If you follow Ryan Maue or Joe Bastardi on Twitter, you get even better GFS wind maps tha . t also require no effort. Didn't know it was a contest. If you must know it took a whole 15 seconds to compile in Max and I would certainly take WSI's data feed over that. In any case 97L is looking a lot healthier. Recon sure spent a long time up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Didn't know it was a contest. If you must know it took a whole 15 seconds to compile in Max and I would certainly take WSI data over that. In any case 97L is looking a lot healthier. Recon sure spent a long time up there You should really ask Ian or Randy for a Pro tag at some point now that you've been working at WVEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 When is the next recon flight heading in? I thought the schedule showed an aircraft taking off about an hour ago but I don't see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 stronger through 24. EDIT: wow down to 997mb thru 36 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 If there is a center... its likely around 21N 86W per microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 stronger through 24. EDIT: wow down to 997mb thru 36 already Huh NCEP site says 1008mb at 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Huh NCEP site says 1008mb at 36hrs. He is looking at the higher resolution grids (not 0.5 degree resolution which is the only thing available on the NCEP page) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 He is looking at the higher resolution grids (not 0.5 degree resolution which is the only thing available on the NCEP page) Oh thanks, I thought there was something better out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 984mb landfall along the panhandle near Ft. Walton & Destin per 0Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 strongest run yet, steadily strengthens from now until landfall in 78hrs. nice band of convection surrounding the coc at landfall with 85kt winds at 900mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 If this is shooting through the channel, that means it is going east of the 0Z gfs, which has it hit the corner of the Yucatan. Also, the Euro is obviously going to have a horrible bust, especially considering it did that far west, weak thing run after run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Sure. 4 Day Loop http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5qoRJoF3Uo&hd=1 18z GFS Gusts 4am Sun wow according to this, the northeast gets the best winds out of anywhere from this. How is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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