bluewave Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 If nothing else forms, the 2013 ACE is at 28. That would put it at a tie with 1972 for the 3rd lowest since 1950. The two lower years were 1977 had 25 and 1983 had 17. 1982 is the only other year with only 2 hurricanes 1994 had 2 hurricanes in November, so the season is not over yet, even though I gave up hope a long time ago. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy Pretty remarkable this year considering that we didn't have an -AMO or El Nino like the other very low ACE years. The dry and more stable conditions dominated the whole pattern rather than just interfering like we have seen in recent years. It was like someone flipped a switch after the 2005 hyperactive season.The 06-13 8 season ACE dropped to 799 from a previous 8 season level of 1308 during 98-05. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 It feels like I missed a funeral in here. Who would have thought that in mid October we'd be sitting at 11-2-0 for the season with the strongest storm at 980mb and 75 knots, and with no hope in sight for anything big. Our ACE stands at 26.93, and less than 15% of ACE remains on average. We may not hit 30. Just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 If nothing else forms, the 2013 ACE is at 28. That would put it at a tie with 1972 for the 3rd lowest since 1950. The two lower years were 1977 had 25 and 1983 had 17. 1982 is the only other year with only 2 hurricanes 1994 had 2 hurricanes in November, so the season is not over yet, even though I gave up hope a long time ago. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy I wonder where Wikipedia gets their ACE numbers from. I use Ryan Maue's site, which gave me 27 (26.93). Regardless, an ace of 27 or 28 with 11 NS would yield a "record" or unprecedented low in ACE/NS ratio since 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Time to pull the pin and let this thread sink... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Time to pull the pin and let this thread sink... Interesting timing on this comment. The 12Z gfs hits N. Belize on 11/2 with a solid TC. This is Josh territory. Never mind that that is at hour 312 lol and has virtually no chance of verifying closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I don't that anyone would have taken the bet that we would go close to 3000 days without an official major hurricane landfall since Wilma in 2005. Just goes to show that we didn't need an actual major hurricane for very serious damage to occur as we saw with Ike and Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Interesting timing on this comment. The 12Z gfs hits N. Belize on 11/2 with a solid TC. This is Josh territory. Never mind that that is at hour 312 lol and has virtually no chance of verifying closely. MJO will swing back our way, though in a weak state. Wouldn't be surprised if we get some activity in the western Caribbean during early November. Some GEFS members are already showing this possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 20, 2013 Author Share Posted October 20, 2013 Interesting timing on this comment. The 12Z gfs hits N. Belize on 11/2 with a solid TC. This is Josh territory. Never mind that that is at hour 312 lol and has virtually no chance of verifying closely. Yep. My favorite part of the basin for chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Then again, the GEFS is seriously overdoing the MJO's amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 20, 2013 Author Share Posted October 20, 2013 MJO will swing back our way, though in a weak state. Wouldn't be surprised if we get some activity in the western Caribbean during early November. Some GEFS members are already showing this possibility. Interesting, I usually consider 31 Oct as the end of any possibility of sexy action, but hey, maybe this year will surprise us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Interesting, I usually consider 31 Oct as the end of any possibility of sexy action, but hey, maybe this year will surprise us. I think this year has already surprised us. 11-2-0 is pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 20, 2013 Author Share Posted October 20, 2013 I think this year has already surprised us. 11-2-0 is pathetic. I mean surprise us the other way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 BEGINNHC_ATCFinvest_al902013.investFSTDARU0400100000201310210356NONENOTIFY=ATRPEND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Interesting timing on this comment. The 12Z gfs hits N. Belize on 11/2 with a solid TC. This is Josh territory. Never mind that that is at hour 312 lol and has virtually no chance of verifying closely. 6Z 10/20 Sun GFS suggested a Yucatan (MX) hit on 11/5 with a fairly weak but strengthening TC 12Z 10/20 Sun GFS hits N. Belize with a solid TC on 11/2 18Z 10/20 Sun GFS hits NE Honduras with a hurricane on 11/5 0Z 10/21 Mon GFS hits Yucatan (MX) with a fairly weak TC on 11/2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 6Z 10/20 Sun GFS suggested a Yucatan (MX) hit on 11/5 with a fairly weak but strengthening TC 12Z 10/20 Sun GFS hits N. Belize with a solid TC on 11/2 18Z 10/20 Sun GFS hits NE Honduras with a hurricane on 11/5 0Z 10/21 Mon GFS hits Yucatan (MX) with a fairly weak TC It seems as though the 6z and 18z say November 5th landfall while the 0z and 12z show landfall on November 2nd and not as any surprise it has landfall all over the map but if it keeps showing up in later week runs then we may get a more general idea on that, and its output seems to coincide well with the modeled MJO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al902013.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201310210356 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END I'm almost as interested in the ULL becoming an STD/STS as the actual invest. Both too far away this time of the year, if either developed, to be of any interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al902013_al132013.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201310211320 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Should briefly waste the name Lorenzo per NHC forecast. Northeast half of it doesn't look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 I was wondering if we would get something like 13 developing. I sensed that the subtropical Atlantic would be favorable for TC/STC development during late October and November with the favorable SST anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 ...TWELFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS... 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 21Location: 28.9°N 54.9°WMoving: NNE at 7 mphMin pressure: 1008 mbMax sustained: 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 Lolz, so lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Lolz, so lame. No cat 2's for this season looks like it's within reach. Did 1968 get an upgrade to one cat 2 with Gladys reanalysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2013 Author Share Posted October 21, 2013 No cat 2's for this season looks like it's within reach. Did 1968 get an upgrade to one cat 2 with Gladys reanalysis? They haven't gotten to 1968 yet. Gladys has always been considered a Cat-2 landfall for FL on the official landfall list, even though HURDAT only shows Cat-1 winds. Such discrepancies are common in the pre-reanalyzed years-- and it'll be interesting to see how they reconcile that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 They haven't gotten to 1968 yet. Gladys has always been considered a Cat 2 landfall for FL on the official landfall list, even though HURDAT only shows Cat-1 winds. Such discrepancies are common in the pre-reanalyzed years-- and it'll be interesting to see how they reconcile that. Interesting. This season is so bizarrely quiet considering that 1997 was able to swing a major even with s super Nino revving up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Lorenzo looked good for a while, really. Not looking as good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 You know what? You guys suck and so does the thread title. I care about Lorenzo. I'm calling it now: Lorenzo reaches hurricane status, polymerizes with a cold front and destroys England. And then there will be a movie made about said meteorological event starring, I guess, Hugh Grant or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2013 Author Share Posted October 23, 2013 You know what? You guys suck and so does the thread title. I care about Lorenzo. Get over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 This thread jumped the shark about a month ago. Out of respect, it should probably be unpinned and allowed to sink deep into the sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 This thread jumped the shark about a month ago. Out of respect, it should probably be unpinned and allowed to sink deep into the sea. I said that a couple of days ago, then an hour 324 18Z GFS or something showed a cyclone in the Caribbean, than Lorenzo added to a season that will probably have a record low ACE per named storm. I still say unpin it, and if Monday's 18Z GFS or whatever is right, this thread probably won't have sunk off page 1 of the threads by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I'll take the over on the current NHC odds on TC development in the bay of Campeche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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