Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[HurricaneJosh]

I don't know about that.  The video of Josh stringing a rope over the rafter after Humberto interrupted 2013's attempt at hurricane ineptitude by a few hours was mildly amusing.  The fact that the rope broke on him was worth a chuckle or two, and just shows how snake bitten and pathetic we were this year. 

You hush!

Me, I'm happy as a clam this year. Three typhoon eyewalls in one week was all the medicine I needed this year. Turning to the WPAC for action felt like sleeping with some totally hawt stranger because my spouse wouldn't put out.

[LakeEffectKing]

[Mike.Ventrice]

I can't believe people are still posting model porn ITT. It's over... time to cut our losses and move on, we will eventually see a decent hurricane season.

 

As this year was certainly a disappointment, but it's hard to count out another storm this year. We've seen big upticks in the rest of the globe in activity and intensity, which both the West Pacific and East Pacific typhoons/hurricanes were timed well with the intraseasonal state of convection in the tropics. The Atlantic is transitioning to a favorable intraseasonal state for convection and tropical cyclogenesis. This might be a time where short-term memory loss may be better suited than pattern recognition based off the current year as there has been some changes in the tropics to a state to a place where we all wish it were August-September.

 

[Ed Lizard]

I can't believe people are still posting model porn ITT. It's over... time to cut our losses and move on, we will eventually see a decent hurricane season.

Eyewall started it...

[Amped]

As this year was certainly a disappointment, but it's hard to count out another storm this year. We've seen big upticks in the rest of the globe in activity and intensity, which both the West Pacific and East Pacific typhoons/hurricanes were timed well with the intraseasonal state of convection in the tropics. The Atlantic is transitioning to a favorable intraseasonal state for convection and tropical cyclogenesis. This might be a time where short-term memory loss may be better suited than pattern recognition based off the current year as there has been some changes in the tropics to a state to a place where we all wish it were August-September.

 

Nice post. 1994 had 2 storms in November after a crappy season. It wouldn't take much to get the strongest storm of the season.

[Jonger]

Has anyone written a proper eulogy for this season?

[Amped]

Has anyone written a proper eulogy for this season?

It was like a hockey season with two hockey games. In other words, it was slightly better than the 2004-2005 NHL.

[Ed Lizard]

I think WxMx said a hurricane has never hit Mexico west of 95W after October something. 

 

Sure, its the FIM, and has let me down many times this season, but if it did verify, I don't see anything obvious that would stop continued Westward motion into the Gulf coast of Mexico.

 

 

BTW, some GEFS support for the Mexican hurricane threat, which in November, well, not the apparent act of a benign Supreme Being the 2004 South Texas Christmas Snow Miracle was, but would still be in the minor miracle catagory.

[HurricaneJosh]

Since the NATL sucked so badly this year, here's some hawtness from another basin.  This cyclone was a 90-kt Cat 2-- and the video shows how angry and edgy even a non-major can be.  Enjoy!  

 

[Ed Lizard]

^^^  Glad 2013 wasn't a complete strike out, even if you had to travel halfway around the Earth.

 

 

Each 30 km FIM-8 run is different in final destination, but shows a tropical cyclone out beyond 10 days, 6Z GFS has a Nicaragua landfall at the every end of fantasy range, so there is still a chance to polish the turd that was 2013/

[NaoPos]

Since the NATL sucked so badly this year, here's some hawtness from another basin. This cyclone was a 90-kt Cat 2-- and the video shows how angry and edgy even a non-major can be. Enjoy!

Wow! Great video. That roar towards the end is awesome!

[Cheeznado]

GGEM has two systems basically at the same time affecting Florida LOL.

[tmagan]

ECMWF also has a possible system in the NW Caribbean toward Day 10.

[hurricaneman]

Looking at how inactive 2013 has been, the number of named storms is 12 but heres a list of ACE per storm for each season since 1950

 

 ACE per storm

1961:18.63
1955:16.58
1967:15.25
1950:15.19
2004:15.10
1999:14.75
1964:14.17
1965:14.00
1951:13.70
1980:13.55
1966:13.18
1963:13.11
1998:13.00
1996:12.77
1960:12.57
1952:12.43
1989:12.27
1958:12.10
1995:12.00
2003:10.93
1992:10.86
1957:10.50
1979:10.33
1954:10.27
2008:  9.12
2005:  8.86
1969:  8.78
2010:  8.74
1988:  8.58
1975:  8.44
1976:  8.40
1981:  8.33
1985:  8.00
2000:  7.93
2006:  7.90
1971:  7.46
1953:  7.43
2001:  7.33
1962:  7.20
2012:  7.00
1959:  7.00
1990:  6.93
1956:  6.75
2011:  6.58
1984:  6.46
1986:  6.00
2009:  5.89
2002:  5.58
1974:  5.55
1973:  5.38
1982:  5.33
1997:  5.25
1978:  5.25
2007:  4.93
1993:  4.88
1987:  4.86
1994:  4.57
1991:  4.50
1968:  4.38
1983:  4.25
1977:  4.17
1972:  4.00
1970:  3.40
2013:  2.50
 

Looking at this 2013 in terms of ACE per storm is last by almost a full unit which makes this according to this list the most craptacular hurricane season by far but if I were a betting man next year if we can get rid of the stable air will be more active, its almost a given

[Sunny and Warm]

 

Looking at how inactive 2013 has been, the number of named storms is 12 but heres a list of ACE per storm for each season since 1950

 

 ACE per storm

2013:  2.50

 

Looking at this 2013 in terms of ACE per storm is last by almost a full unit which makes this according to this list the most craptacular hurricane season by far but if I were a betting man next year if we can get rid of the stable air will be more active, its almost a given

While I wouldn't bet against a more robust year next year, there is more to it than less stable air. I suspect a mild Nino starting next spring which may add shear across the basin. That's just one of many variables great and small that will impact 2014.

[hurricaneman]

and of note if you remove the greatness of Felix and Dean 2007 was exactly like this year as far as storms fizzling out and not becoming strong

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

With no immediate areas of interest across the Atlantic currently, or in any model fields, I think it's safe to say the season is "over" (quotations because the season doesn't officially end until November 30). That being said, here's a list of some facts about the season. 2013 is...

 

- the first since 1968 to have the strongest storm not surpass Category 1 intensity. And with a minimum barometric pressure of 980mb, Humberto is the weakest most intense tropical cyclone in the satellite era.

 

- has the 5th lowest Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index since reliable ACE records began in 1950, at 30 units.

 

- will go down with 47 deaths and ~$1.51 billion (2013 USD), the lowest such totals since 2009

 

- will continue the streak of hurricane seasons that failed to bring a major hurricane (Cat. 3, 4, 5) onto USA soil

 

- will likely see 0 retired storms, the first since 2009

 

- by far contains the lowest ACE per storm (see above)

 

- Will be forgotten

[Amped]

F

Next!

[metalicwx366]

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF

BERMUDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR THIS

SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS

LATER THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES

NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A

SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

[Amped]

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF

BERMUDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR THIS

SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS

LATER THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES

NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A

SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

 

I am so glad the Atlantic Basin is waking us up in the middle of November just to show us yet another POS storm.

[metalicwx366]

I am so glad the Atlantic Basin is waking us up in the middle of November just to show us yet another POS storm.

Lol!

Looks like we should have subtropical storm Melissa later today.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

700 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE

INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER

OF A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR

TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TODAY OR ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A

HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND A HIGH CHANCE...90

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT

AROUND 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND

IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[wxmx]

 

 

SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013

1100 AM EDT MON NOV 18 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE

WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF A LARGE GALE-AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL

ATLANTIC WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FRONTAL BOUNDARIES

NEAR THE CENTER APPEAR TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND SO ADVISORIES ARE

BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF

ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER CORE

CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN AN

UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SUGGEST

THAT THE CYCLONE MAY STILL HAVE A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.

AS A RESULT...THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM

RATHER THAN A TROPICAL STORM...AT LEAST FOR NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD...OR 320/08 KT. NHC

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MELISSA MOVING

NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR

SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE

RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE AZORES. THE CYCLONE COULD

POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN THE

SYSTEM MOVES UNDERNEATH A 200 MB LOW/TROUGH. HOWEVER...BY 48 HORUS

AND BEYOND...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS

OF CANADA AND THE UNITED SATES IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE MELISSA TO

THE NORTHEAST. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MELISSA IS FORECAST OT INTERACT

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH AND TURN BACK TOWARD THE

NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

MELISSA HAS ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE SHIPS

INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO

DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 36 HOURS. THE WEAKENING SHEAR SHOULD

ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR WHILE THE

CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER...BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR THE

TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS

SIMILAR TO THE ICON INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT

OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MELISSA COULD ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN

36-48 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS AT A MINIMUM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 29.3N 53.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 19/0000Z 30.2N 54.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

24H 19/1200Z 31.3N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

36H 20/0000Z 33.6N 52.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

48H 20/1200Z 36.6N 48.9W 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 21/1200Z 42.8N 39.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H 22/1200Z 50.0N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H 23/1200Z 55.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$

FORECASTER STEWART

[Superstorm93]

The best part is that SS ACE is not included in the years final ACE number 

 

[hurricaneman]

http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/2538/ftp4.png

 

It looks like there was a un named tropical storm or hurricane ESE of Barbados yesterday, is this a possible reanalysis candidate as it seems to be the most interesting thing the Atlantic has put out this year or am I just full of something

[HurricaneJosh]

A fittingly ugly, lame storm to cap off this incredibly pathetic NATL season.  Obviously I'm not bitter about it, since I found good chase subjects on the other side of the earth-- but I have to say, the NATL's lameness this year has just been astounding.  Literally.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Colorado State University has released their summary of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season/seasonal forecast verification. In it, they attribute the below-average activity to a very weak Thermohaline circulation (in fact, the values between May and June using their new proxy [read more in the report] were at all-time record lows going back to 1950).

 

Excerpt: 

 

"We believe that much of the explanation for the lack of activity this year was due to a

significant weakening of our proxy of the Atlantic THC from April through June. Our
THC proxy signals of April-June 2013 indicate that the Atlantic THC (from both W.
ATL and E. ATL proxy signals) had the strongest drop and was the weakest overall of
any year since 1950. We hypothesize that this very large springtime collapse of the THC
set up broad-scale conditions that likely related to the unusually dry mid-level air,
stronger-than-normal mid-level subsidence and stronger than expected vertical wind
shear in the Atlantic MDR, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico."

 

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2013/nov2013/nov2013.pdf

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Colorado State University has released their summary of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season/seasonal forecast verification. In it, they attribute the below-average activity to a very weak Thermohaline circulation (in fact, the values between May and June using their new proxy [read more in the report] were at all-time record lows going back to 1950).

 

Excerpt: 

 

"We believe that much of the explanation for the lack of activity this year was due to a

significant weakening of our proxy of the Atlantic THC from April through June. Our

THC proxy signals of April-June 2013 indicate that the Atlantic THC (from both W.

ATL and E. ATL proxy signals) had the strongest drop and was the weakest overall of

any year since 1950. We hypothesize that this very large springtime collapse of the THC

set up broad-scale conditions that likely related to the unusually dry mid-level air,

stronger-than-normal mid-level subsidence and stronger than expected vertical wind

shear in the Atlantic MDR, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico."

 

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2013/nov2013/nov2013.pdf

 

That was an interesting read.  I find it intriguing that the years that defied their period's THC classification occur awfully close to the end of that cycle.  1962 was 8 years (borderline) and 1968 2 years before the end of that positive cycle.  1988-1989 were 6-7 years before the end of that cycle.

 

It makes me think that 2013's THC dip is serving as a "caution light" that the end of the current cycle will likely be occurring in the next ~6 years.

[Drz1111]

As someone who spent several years of grad school studying the THC, let me save you trouble: that is the stupidest, sloppiest work I've ever seen.

Colorado State University has released their summary of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season/seasonal forecast verification. In it, they attribute the below-average activity to a very weak Thermohaline circulation (in fact, the values between May and June using their new proxy [read more in the report] were at all-time record lows going back to 1950).

 

Excerpt: 

 

"We believe that much of the explanation for the lack of activity this year was due to a

significant weakening of our proxy of the Atlantic THC from April through June. Our

THC proxy signals of April-June 2013 indicate that the Atlantic THC (from both W.

ATL and E. ATL proxy signals) had the strongest drop and was the weakest overall of

any year since 1950. We hypothesize that this very large springtime collapse of the THC

set up broad-scale conditions that likely related to the unusually dry mid-level air,

stronger-than-normal mid-level subsidence and stronger than expected vertical wind

shear in the Atlantic MDR, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico."

 

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2013/nov2013/nov2013.pdf

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Final eulogy?

 

With just a few days left in the 2013 hurricane season, NOAA issued its end-of-season press release this morning. Thirteen named storms formed in the Atlantic basin this year. Two of these (Ingrid and Humberto) became hurricanes, but neither became a major hurricane (category 3 or higher), and in fact, neither Ingrid nor Humberto even reached category 2.

 

NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook, issued by the Climate Prediction Center back on May 23rd, called for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. Even in August, NOAA’s confidence in an above-normal season was still high; the August update called for 13-19 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. Although the number of named storms did fall within the forecast range, the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes were well below the forecast range, and also well below the long-term averages of 6 and 3, respectively.

 

The season was so quiet that NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters flew only 45 aircraft reconnaissance missions over the Atlantic basin, and the total number of hours flown, 435, was the fewest since at least 1966 (and probably longer, but older records on flight hours are hard to come by). This year had the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982; it was also the first year since 1994 without a major hurricane. In terms of ACE, the collective strength and duration of the season’s subtropical storms, tropical storms, and hurricanes, 2013 will likely end up as the sixth-quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1950.

 

So what happened? The obviously unexpected (but fortunate) lack of strong storms was related primarily to sinking motion and very dry air across portions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. In addition, wind shear was higher than normal over portions of the basin, especially in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. These conditions offset otherwise more “active” climate patterns, such as above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and a lack of an El Nino.

 

So you might ask - why all the persistent sinking and dry air this year? That’s a good question, but there don’t appear to be any definitive or satisfying answers at the moment. Clearly there are some aspects of seasonal hurricane prediction - especially the factors that affect the ability of the atmosphere to support deep thunderstorm activity - that are not yet very predictable, even just a few weeks in advance. When these patterns take an unexpected turn, the seasonal forecast will fail.

 

It’s worth noting that even though the season overall was quiet, Mexico was repeatedly affected by tropical cyclones this year, including three in the Atlantic and five more from the eastern North Pacific. And it’s also worth noting that even quiet seasons can bring massive devastation (remember Andrew in 1992?). So regardless of whether the season is quiet or active, regardless of whether the outlook says above- or below-normal, residents of hurricane-vulnerable areas always need to prepare each and every season as though this is one that’s going to affect them – and then feel very fortunate if the season ends without any impacts.

 

Given this, you might ask why does NOAA bother to make a seasonal hurricane outlook at all, since it doesn’t seem to have much direct practical benefit. Well, in most years the outlooks are actually skillful, but the best answer from our perspective is that the outlooks raise awareness of the hurricane threat. It’s fascinating that at NHC the question we get more often than any other is “How busy is the season gonna be?”. People clearly have a deep curiosity about this, even if the forecast is not about them specifically. So we know that we’ll get folks' attention for a few minutes if we make and publicize these forecasts. And our hope is that while we have their attention, people will start thinking about their own vulnerabilities - and make sure they’re prepared if a storm should threaten.

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=598644863534331&set=a.126275484104607.22530.112957945436361&type=1

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I guess not...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 27 2013

 

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

 

1. A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BY FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48 HOURS...
AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

 

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

 

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

 

FORECASTER STEWART