dan88 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Recon getting some nice SW winds now compared to earlier, pressure has dropped as well from earlier 203530 1952N 08518W 9773 00264 0072 +234 +225 198025 025 026 002 00 203600 1954N 08516W 9772 00264 0071 +232 +228 200025 026 026 003 00 203630 1956N 08515W 9771 00265 0071 +231 +230 203024 024 027 002 00 203700 1957N 08514W 9772 00263 0070 +234 +229 208024 024 028 001 03 203730 1959N 08514W 9769 00266 0070 +235 +224 210019 024 /// /// 03 203800 2000N 08515W 9771 00265 0071 +235 +224 216016 017 024 002 00 203830 2000N 08517W 9772 00264 0071 +235 +225 213016 017 023 003 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 looks great on visible, just need it to wrap up a bit to get going (story of the season so far ugh). eager to see what 18z holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 You can see the surface circulation is just starting to become better defined closer to where the mid-level vortex has been looking well organized most of today. The wind shift has become more pronounced and the storm is probably no the verge of being named. Its clear, however, that the surface circulation and mid-level vortex are not yet perfectly aligned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 1006.8 millibars at 20.2N 86W. They were investigating the remnant low-level circulation as a new one formed near the mid-level center. Maybe enough for classification considering it's steadily becoming better defined on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 1006.8 millibars at 20.2N 86W. They were investigating the remnant low-level circulation as a new one formed near the mid-level center. Maybe enough for classification considering it's steadily becoming better defined on satellite. interesting as the wxbell 12z gfs maps didnt have it down to 1006mb until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Looking good...actually more than good. Now that it appears that a new LLC is consolidating farther N, under the better conditions, we may see some faster paced intensification for the next 24 hours...well into mid end TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Looking good...actually more than good. Now that it appears that a new LLC is consolidating farther N, under the better conditions, we may see some faster paced intensification for the next 24 hours...well into mid end TS. latest visible shots show storms firing right over the possible new coc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 That new vigorous convective burst is very close to the ML (and soon to be LL?) center of circulation may be the kick needed to entice genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 That new vigorous convective burst is very close to the ML (and soon to be LL?) center of circulation may be the kick needed to entice genesis. avn0.jpg Recon now finding some 35 knot SFMR winds in the area of the convection, but the flow is southeasterly in the region, implying that if there is a center its still displaced west of the convective burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 43kt flight level (975mb) winds in heavy (32-35mm/hr) convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 18z looking identical to 12z thru 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Is this in the atlantic? Sure is developing now with great outflow and nice symmetry. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 The COC appears to be consolidating over a very high area of TCHP where the Mid level vortex is located. Things could get interesting if circulation tightens with favourable outflow in place/symmetrical appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 gfs is a tad weaker and a tad slower, still a decent ts though. doesn't really ramp it up until it nears landfall and doesn't show much organization at all in the next 36 hrs or so. EDIT: well i take that back, at landfall @ 96 hrs it is almost identical to 12z landfall strength, 75kt at 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Doesn't look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 they may need a special advisory and an upgrade before 11 if things keep looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 also has that look like its going to explode soon Josh might be mad he didnt stay for this one in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I mean it looks rather impressive for something that doesn't have a decent low level circulation. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Anyone want to tell me what the heck is going on with Jerry in regard to its movement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 looks great but i ahve been burnt too many times (esp. these past few years) with storms that look great on visible and lack a defined llc. also weary of immediate strengthening seeing as the gfs really doesn't ramp it up until 48 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 If that's not a TD I'll eat my socks. Outflow is great to the north, east, and SE. Fairly moist environment and high TCHP. Wish we had radar or a more recent TRMM pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 If that's not a TD I'll eat my socks. Outflow is great to the north, east, and SE. Fairly moist environment and high TCHP. Wish we had radar or a more recent TRMM pass. We just had recon....low level was broad, ill defined and with multiple centers...not a TD. What dressing would you like with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 It looks great, actually! I'm cool being in the WPAC-- not just because of FITOW but the cyclones coming after it in the coming week-- but this 97L is looking pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 We just had recon....low level was broad, ill defined and with multiple centers...not a TD. What dressing would you like with that?TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS EXTENSIVELY INVESTIGATED THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND DETERMINED THAT THE SYSTEM DID NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. I wonder if this may be one of those storms that skips over being a TD and goes right to TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 goodluck out there you staying the whole time? I would love to be in your spot right now It looks great, actually! I'm cool being in the WPAC-- not just because of FITOW but the cyclones coming after it in the coming week-- but this 97L is looking pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I wonder if this may be one of those storms that skips over being a TD and goes right to TS. My guess is that it will go directly to TS status...LLC just needs to get tucked the stronger convection/mid level low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I'm still thinking future Karen will strengthen at least to 50kts in the next 24 hours....mid level low is just barely east of the broad low level center, which is actually good (the LLC being broad and ill defined), so that the current bout of strong convection will probably help the LLC consolidate below the MLC. Upper levels are pretty good with that anticyclone on top of the invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 GFS is a little excessive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 GFS is a little excessive how about post that image for...oh i dont know...the actual landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Tropical - GFS Wind Forecast.png GFS is a little excessive I have no idea who made that graph but I'm assuming those winds are due to the tight gradient between 97L and the strong rigde to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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