SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The euro changed so drastically it makes you think it had to have got bad data or something. Its more than just bad data. Every model flipped drastically for several days as a whole with this storm. Very sensitive to trough amplification and speed of the system in the northern stream meeting the low pressure off the coast. Pretty bad even having the ensemble envelope follow along also. Yesterdays 12z GFS, EURO, CMC, NOGAPS, and UKMET all had a big hit for Long Island. The 00z had barely an inch of snow. In the 72 hour time range thats pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 hr 12 has a 1016 lp off the SC/NC coast, light precip across Ga., SC, and SE NC...hr 18 has a 1012 at panhandle Fl, precip still light in Ga., SC, and light precip making its way into RDU area, still no precip in Cha. yet...hr 24 has a 1012 lp off Wilmington, heavier precip in eastern third of NC, light precip back towards Cha., 850's look to warm, still light precip in SC/Ga....hr 30 precip edge right at RDU and 850's look to finally be cold enough and moisture is leaving...hr 36 there is a 1008 lp off the NC coast but to far OTS, some light precip over eastern NC. EDIT: Sorry Queencity I didn't know you have already replied. One thing.. wasnt the Euro showing nothing in central NC with yeserdays event? And was too warm if im not mistaken? Everyone saw a little snow and then freezing rain. QPFs were much higher in NC than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 One thing.. wasnt the Euro showing nothing in central NC with yeserdays event? And was too warm if im not mistaken? Everyone saw a little snow and then freezing rain. QPFs were much higher in NC than modeled. 1" liquid here and no guidance came close to that... a couple runs of the global had me within the 0.5 hatch, but NAM was to the north on heaviest axis. ECMWF was around 3/10"'s if I am not mistaken inside of 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 1" liquid here and no guidance came close to that... a couple runs of the global had me within the 0.5 hatch, but NAM was to the north on heaviest axis. ECMWF was around 3/10"'s if I am not mistaken inside of 72 hrs. This drives home the point I have been trying to make about the QPF forecasts from models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 One thing.. wasnt the Euro showing nothing in central NC with yeserdays event? And was too warm if im not mistaken? Everyone saw a little snow and then freezing rain. QPFs were much higher in NC than modeled. It always showed NC to warm leading up to yesterday's event. It finally moved a little south w/ qpf at the end. But for most of the time I was following it, it showed the qpf in Va. EDIT: WeatherNC's correct, it never showed the amount of qpf that we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblzchance in CLT Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Not always the best idea to use a global model at this time range as there could be spin up issues with precipitation..etc. Which model do you prefer in this time frame? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Damn that pic above looks nice only if it were accurate. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Which model do you prefer in this time frame? TIA Its really hard to prefer a model in the short term but some of the short term guidance models, the NAM, RUC and HRRR but nowcasting is my best option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Its really hard to prefer a model in the short term but some of the short term guidance models, the NAM, RUC and HRRR but nowcasting is my best option. And that was the HRRR which was posted above. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 0z GFS ens members, 30 and 36 hrs... Great, I have a 50-50 chance of being on the rn-sn line! Can be a great thing depending on what side of the street you live on, as one likes to see +RN down the road while getting +SN itby! Like the trends though for the Coastal Plain as the consensus from the 12 and 18z members was not even close. Time for bed and hope it continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblzchance in CLT Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 And that was the HRRR which was posted above. Interesting. Yes - if that pic verified it would make a lot of us happy I think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 That HRRR sim radar map looks great!! ............Not ready to drink the GFS/Euro Kool-aid just yet. Current radar show some nice returns from eastern MS to central AL right now moving northeast. This had better turn east or fizzle out pretty quick if the global models are going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblzchance in CLT Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 That HRRR sim radar map looks great!! ............Not ready to drink the GFS/Euro Kool-aid just yet. Current radar show some nice returns from eastern MS to central AL right now moving northeast. This had better turn east or fizzle out pretty quick if the global models are going to verify. It appears to blooming along the Texas/Louisiana border as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Looks interesting better site for your IR graphics (higher res) http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/ valid 1:15am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Is there any chance the HRRR model is right? That's totally different than most other modeling. That would be a big hit here and for the foothills, Frosty, and Robert if temperatures allow. I really have never looked at the HRRR model before, so I don't know what to think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Im currently in Hartsville SC and we are sitting at 30.9, forecasted low was 34. Lets hope the temps will bust tomorrow night as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 What temp is everyone else sitting at? Im quite surprised im at 30.9 to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Sitting at 41.1 just south of CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 29.8 central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'm at 34.2 with a 32 DP. I was struggling to get below 33.7 degrees, but then had a sudden jump just now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Sitting at 41.1 just south of CAE. Theres some good precip coming into the lowcountry that should make its way up through SC through the early morning hours. Also, what was everyone's forecasted lows for tonight? Anyone else bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 RAH called for 29,so right on target so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Greenville got to 23, forecast low was like 26, currently at 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblzchance in CLT Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 32.3 with a DP of 30 here on the east side of CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Try not to faint Brick: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 323 AM EST SAT DEC 18 2010 ...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL SNOW TONIGHT... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT... SPREADING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-076-077-181730- /O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0015.101218T2300Z-101219T1400Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH- EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-LEE-HARNETT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON... WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG... NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD... WILSON...SANFORD...LILLINGTON 323 AM EST SAT DEC 18 2010 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS AFFECTED: THE TRIANGLE...NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. * PRECIPITATION TYPES: RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING ALL SNOW TONIGHT. * ACCUMULATION: ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS JUST EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. * TIMING: PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE ADVISORY AREA AS RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL SNOW BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM THIS EVENING...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. * TEMPERATURES: WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THIS EVENING...FALLING BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS DIRECTLY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 1-877-633-6772. $$ VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 This event really is changing by the hour. Seems the closer we get, the bigger the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 the 6z nam isnt even picking up the precip at hr6 over the southeast it has very little precip from ga into sc so you can throw the NAM out its nowcast time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 the 6z nam isnt even picking up the precip at hr6 over the southeast it has very little precip from ga into sc so you can throw the NAM out its nowcast time! NAM looks like it's doing horrible with the storm. Radar is actually pretty good in western TN and light snow is being reported on the ground, but it shows absolutely nothing for this time frame. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.