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Late July Pattern Change - Wx Discussion

CT Rain

By CT Rain,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Those that love the heat and humidity seem to think the rest of us believe its October and we are in the 70s until winter.

It's mid-July...it's going to torch again, probably several more times. That's what happens in the summer. Once we get to mid September we can start entertaining the idea of 85F+ torches being done.

Yeah. None of us are calling for sustained summah polah conditions...just an end of the oppressive heat for awhile. I'm sure we'll average above normal for the next 6 weeks too with more periods of muggy mins and rain at times. Looks like we get a nice dew break to end the week though...especially NNE/CNE.
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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted

Those that love the heat and humidity seem to think the rest of us believe its October and we are in the 70s until winter.

It's mid-July...it's going to torch again, probably several more times. That's what happens in the summer. Once we get to mid September we can start entertaining the idea of 85F+ torches being done.

At least we're only about a month out from passing the average last 90F+ day in SNE...

 

BDL - 8/26

BDR - 8/6

BOS - 8/20

ORH - 7/29

PVD - 8/11

 

We still have a ways to go before the last 85F+ day...

 

BDL - 9/16

BDR - 9/3

BOS - 9/13

ORH - 8/24

PVD - 9/8

 

...and our first sub-50F morning...

 

BDL - 8/26

BDR - 9/17

BOS - 9/20

ORH - 9/1

PVD - 9/10

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

Posted
Posted

Again, can't really say much but it was a combo of things that led to his demise. Brilliant mind, not so brilliant attitude/agenda.

 

Hard to explain on here for certain reasons...could be a GTG topic though.

Wow, defending JB ad nauseam. This is getting OT but the one thing you kind of have to admire about JB is that he sticks to his guns (though many might argue those guns have the accuracy of Dick Cheney on a hunting trip).

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

At least we're only about a month out from passing the average last 90F+ day in SNE...

BDL - 8/26

BDR - 8/6

BOS - 8/20

ORH - 7/29

PVD - 8/11

We still have a ways to go before the last 85F+ day...

BDL - 9/16

BDR - 9/3

BOS - 9/13

ORH - 8/24

PVD - 9/8

...and our first sub-50F morning...

BDL - 8/26

BDR - 9/17

BOS - 9/20

ORH - 9/1

PVD - 9/10

Awesome stats as always... But wow, it takes Boston till September 20th to break 50 degrees (on average)??

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Does CON even have a statistic for this? I think most Julys they achieve a sub 50F min.

Yeah I was thinking about...most of VT/NH/ME must never really have a period of the year where it doesn't go below 50F...or with enough statistical frequency to avoid needing a stat like that.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah I was thinking about...most of VT/NH/ME must never really have a period of the year where it doesn't go below 50F...or with enough statistical frequency to avoid needing a stat like that.

 

 

Record lows even at ORH in late July are around 50F.

 

Temps like that are hard to get this time of the year...esp down in SNE. Obv the rad spots in NNE can do it much easier.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Record lows even at ORH in late July are around 50F.

Temps like that are hard to get this time of the year...esp down in SNE. Obv the rad spots in NNE can do it much easier.

Interesting...what about like BDL that might radiate a little better?

I just assumed that record lows would be upper 40s in interior SNE. I see some of those July cold snaps that are like 28-32F in the NNE radiation ice boxes, but figured those air masses must have been very chilly with 0C H85 air that would put down widespread 40s even in SNE.

Last July I had more lows in the 40s than in the 60s...and I'm in a decent rad spot but not epic by any means. And I feel like a CON-DDH latitude does 40s occasionally in July. That must be about the southern climo extent.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Interesting...what about like BDL that might radiate a little better?

I just assumed that record lows would be upper 40s in interior SNE. I see some of those July cold snaps that are like 28-32F in the NNE radiation ice boxes, but figured those air masses must have been very chilly with 0C H85 air that would put down widespread 40s even in SNE.

Last July I had more lows in the 40s than in the 60s...and I'm in a decent rad spot but not epic by any means. And I feel like a CON-DDH latitude does 40s occasionally in July. That must be about the southern climo extent.

 

 

Pretty similar from what I can see..



7/18
50 in 1956
52 in 1958
53 in 1920

7/19
51 in 1956
53 in 1971
55 in 1976+

7/20
50 in 1929
51 in 2001
51 in 1965

7/21
50 in 1974
50 in 1966
51 in 1965+

7/22
52 in 1974
52 in 1944
53 in 1965+

7/23
49 in 1977
52 in 2000
53 in 1976

7/24
49 in 1985
51 in 1923
53 in 1912

7/25
50 in 1912
51 in 1992
51 in 1960

7/26
50 in 1984
50 in 1978
50 in 1976

7/27
49 in 2001
49 in 1977
51 in 1975

7/28
48 in 2001
49 in 1977
51 in 1971+

7/29
51 in 1977
52 in 1968
54 in 1987+

7/30
48 in 1968
49 in 1956
50 in 1997

7/31
50 in 1956
51 in 2001
53 in 1997
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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted

Does CON even have a statistic for this? I think most Julys they achieve a sub 50F min.

CON comes in at 8/10, but it's less meaningful for places that have sub-50F mins normally in July and August. Out of the 30 year period, CON had at least one day below 50F in every August, and in July all but 3 of the 30 had at least one sub-50F low. The date becomes arbitrary for a place like CON as to which occurrence is considered the last of the previous season versus the first of the new season. I used 8/1 as the start of the cold season which is the date used for first and last frost/freeze dates.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Pretty similar from what I can see..[]

Ah, but there are some upper 40s in there.

I guess that's sort of what I was thinking...some 48-49 type stuff for records.

I bet MetHerb's data would have some more 40s...out away from the 'macs in the rural areas where people live, lol.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

hanging on to a fair amount of filtered sun...75-80...pretty nice out with the east wind. good time of the year for onshore flow.

 

looks like southerly flow resumes tonight...probably hangs around until tue night or wed am before being shunted away again. 

 

Was just out for lunch at Copley square...74F at BOS. Nice change from 95/70.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

Record lows even at ORH in late July are around 50F.

 

Temps like that are hard to get this time of the year...esp down in SNE. Obv the rad spots in NNE can do it much easier.

 

lol, I know I'm a good rad. cooling spot but I have a total of 6 days in July and August where I haven't been in the 40s in the past 29 years.  Though, there is a stretch from 7/18-23 that are mostly above 50.  I will say this too, the last time I had a low in the 40s in late July was 2001 (the 28th & 31st).

 

For some reason it just strikes me as odd (funny) that BDL would not average a below 50° reading until late August.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Was just out for lunch at Copley square...74F at BOS. Nice change from 95/70.

yeah i never would have considered a 65F dew to be dry really but after enduring mid 70s for an eternity, it feels pretty good. i think it was jerry who was noting how quickly the body adjusts...very true. feels "comfortable" for a change. 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

Yeah I was thinking about...most of VT/NH/ME must never really have a period of the year where it doesn't go below 50F...or with enough statistical frequency to avoid needing a stat like that.

 

For my location it's better to look at it inversely - the longest streaks with minima 50+.  My 16-yr average including a 21-day run this year (6/22-7/12) is 18 days.  Longest streak was 31 days, 7/13-8/12, 2008, and two years (2000 and 2011) had no streaks longer than 11.  This year's 21 was broken by a sneaky 49 on 7/13, and unless today was under 50 (it was close) I'm 9 days into another run.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

CON comes in at 8/10, but it's less meaningful for places that have sub-50F mins normally in July and August. Out of the 30 year period, CON had at least one day below 50F in every August, and in July all but 3 of the 30 had at least one sub-50F low. The date becomes arbitrary for a place like CON as to which occurrence is considered the last of the previous season versus the first of the new season. I used 8/1 as the start of the cold season which is the date used for first and last frost/freeze dates.

 

That's interesting.  I didn't know that they used 8/1 instead of 7/1 like they do for snow and heating and cooling degree days.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Ah, but there are some upper 40s in there.

I guess that's sort of what I was thinking...some 48-49 type stuff for records.

I bet MetHerb's data would have some more 40s...out away from the 'macs in the rural areas where people live, lol.

 

 

But you can see from those temps how unrealistic it is for people to expect 51F crisp lows in SNE sans places like decently elevated rad spots. It really undermines the whole silly debate of whether we are in a new pattern or not because we aren't getting highs of 73 with lows of 51 in late July. Late July and early August is generally the warmest/muggiest combo part of the summer for us. So essentially we need record low temps to satisfy the requirements some seem to throw out there.

 

A little perspective is always nice. We really don't seem to get a great chance for that type of airmass until after mid August. Usually the final 10-12 days of August has one of those nights where you "feel" autumn trying to come in.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

But you can see from those temps how unrealistic it is for people to expect 51F crisp lows in SNE sans places like decently elevated rad spots. It really undermines the whole silly debate of whether we are in a new pattern or not because we aren't getting highs of 73 with lows of 51 in late July. Late July and early August is generally the warmest/muggiest combo part of the summer for us. So essentially we need record low temps to satisfy the requirements some seem to throw out there.

 

A little perspective is always nice. We really don't seem to get a great chance for that type of airmass until after mid August. Usually the final 10-12 days of August has one of those nights where you "feel" autumn trying to come in.

it's like clockwork. i usually welcome it when it's here...but it's also kind of a depressing feeling for me.

 

i think because i sort of subconsciously equate it with going back to school and i absolutely despised the end of summer vacation / going back to school. 

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

Ah, but there are some upper 40s in there.

I guess that's sort of what I was thinking...some 48-49 type stuff for records.

I bet MetHerb's data would have some more 40s...out away from the 'macs in the rural areas where people live, lol.

 

lol.  I do...here's a copy from my data:

 

15-Jul-09 46

16-Jul-87 46

17-Jul-87 45

18-Jul-93 50

19-Jul-89 53

20-Jul-97 48

21-Jul-99 50

22-Jul-12 54

23-Jul-85 50

24-Jul-97 47

25-Jul-85 47

26-Jul-85 47

27-Jul-85 42

28-Jul-86 46

29-Jul-85 42

30-Jul-85 43

31-Jul-01 48

1-Aug-87 46

2-Aug-87 45

3-Aug-90 48

4-Aug-85 50

5-Aug-93 52

6-Aug-93 42

7-Aug-94 44

8-Aug-95 42

9-Aug-95 42

10-Aug-89 43

11-Aug-07 45

12-Aug-06 45

13-Aug-06 45

14-Aug-86 48

15-Aug-07 48

 

I won't mention the 30s that end on 7/1 or start on 8/23. 

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