Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 One thing that has caught my eye the last couple years is the area of anomalous heights that seems to set up on the russian side of the arctic every Dec-Jan. It appears to coincide with the low ice mins we've been having since 07. I know the +AMO is at least partially responsible for the open water late in the season in that area and I'll leave CC talk out of it. There has been virtually no extended period of anomalous low heights in that area since the early 2000's. The 90's were loaded with them though. This is one of the reasons I think analogs may not have the power they once had in lr predictions. LW circulation in the high latitudes appears to no longer behave how expect. Even during our ridiculous -ao periods we still never really got pummeled with arctic air at all. This is unusual compared to past history. And it's not like there isn't plenty of cold air to tap. Just ask the Russians and Chinese how many engine blocks cracked and faces froze off the last couple winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Proving that Dave doesn't know what he is talking about saying snow weenies and severe weenies are the same. We do have quite the numbers advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 I'm interested in severe. Moreso than previous years. But it kinda feels like baseball season. Something to pass time with until the real stuff starts with football season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 I'm interested in severe. Moreso than previous years. But it kinda feels like baseball season. Something to pass time with until the real stuff starts with football season. My only interest in severe is hoping that it doesn't happen. That stuff destroys lives. Snow is usually pretty tame until you do something foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 I'm interested in severe. Moreso than previous years. But it kinda feels like baseball season. Something to pass time with until the real stuff starts with football season. It's like watching the Houston Astros play until the Super Bowl Champions start playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Why don't you guys just stfu with your disdain of svr--no one cares. Snow is white and purty. oooh ahhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 I know its just stating the obvious, but I'd think snowfall is the one item that would be hardest to predict. You did a great job with temp picks last year. The snow part is just so "luck of the draw". Seriously, DC was about 10 degrees TOTAL from having a pretty good snowfall year. I think if we are NOT Nina, there's at least a reasonable chance of a good snowfall year even for you guys down low. Of course, there's a reasonable chance of not being part of the "draw" also. I doubt it unless we get a mod/strong Nino....if we are neutral or weak nina, I am 80%+ confident DCA gets <12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Why don't you guys just stfu with your disdain of svr--no one cares. Snow is white and purty. oooh ahhh. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 I doubt it unless we get a mod/strong Nino....if we are neutral or weak nina, I am 80%+ confident DCA gets <12" My only reasoning is that if we can avoid a Nina then we might be able to pull at least normal precip. The bad luck with temps a degree or two too warm right at precip time can't last forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 My only reasoning is that if we can avoid a Nina then we might be able to pull at least normal precip. The bad luck with temps a degree or two too warm right at precip time can't last forever. it isn't just bad luck...the precip and dynamics aren't there....you need exceptional good luck...like a March 99/09 or some Richmond uber band....all things being equal we don't have a good storm track in a non-nino in a -PDO/Nina-esque regime....it will just be more of the same with some unique differences that can make winter interesting but mostly miller B's and other nonsense approaching from the west with 0.30" modeled QPF that verifies at 0.08 and 0.3" snow....I think everyone is sick of the 0.2" events...I like them, but I want some decent events too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Winter might not end in the central us. That might give an early jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 Why don't you guys just stfu with your disdain of svr--no one cares. Snow is white and purty. oooh ahhh. Disdain? Nah, I like it but the leads are tricky and I can't recognize patterns yet so I'm still mostly a snow weenie. No disdain until you troll snow threads again in the winter.Then I hope we have 120 days straight of onshore flow from April-July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Disdain? Nah, I like it but the leads are tricky and I can't recognize patterns yet so I'm still mostly a snow weenie. No disdain until you troll snow threads again in the winter.Then I hope we have 120 days straight of onshore flow from April-July.Don't remember much real trolling. I'm just not head over heels like some. I try to appreciate the slumps etc and take what we can get.. Well not when it comes to getting cold wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Winter might not end in the central us. That might give an early jump. Truly an amazing month out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 it isn't just bad luck...the precip and dynamics aren't there....you need exceptional good luck...like a March 99/09 or some Richmond uber band....all things being equal we don't have a good storm track in a non-nino in a -PDO/Nina-esque regime....it will just be more of the same with some unique differences that can make winter interesting but mostly miller B's and other nonsense approaching from the west with 0.30" modeled QPF that verifies at 0.08 and 0.3" snow....I think everyone is sick of the 0.2" events...I like them, but I want some decent events too... I understand what you are saying, but unless there's some law of physics that says it has to be 34 degrees when precip is falling in DC, then some of it really is bad luck. Cut 2 degrees and you guys have decent events on several occasions last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Winter might not end in the central us. That might give an early jump. July snowpack in the plains will help with a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 1, 2013 Author Share Posted May 1, 2013 Don't remember much real trolling. I'm just not head over heels like some. I try to appreciate the slumps etc and take what we can get.. Well not when it comes to getting cold wind.Crappy attempt at making a joke on my part. I was referring to next season irt trolling. U took a few stabs this past winter but who wouldn't given the futile chase of lameness. I would hardly call it trolling tho.I plan on paying close attention once the first legit severe threat heads our way. Not much to talk about weatherwise these days. Weather has been near perfect to go out and enjoy activities buy not particularly stimulating to talk about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Truly an amazing month out there. Yes it has been an amazing run over the past 4-6 weeks out in plains and west. Wonder what the latest snowfall for Denver, Omaha, Minneapolis and Amarillo is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Yes it has been an amazing run over the past 4-6 weeks out in plains and west. Wonder what the latest snowfall for Denver, Omaha, Minneapolis and Amarillo is? May 24th for Minneapolis, though I saw just over an inch on May 26th, 1992 in my hometown SW of there. The record Minneapolis is chasing is the single day May snowfall record of 3". Could happen, but it is likely to be a fairly narrow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Yes it has been an amazing run over the past 4-6 weeks out in plains and west. Wonder what the latest snowfall for Denver, Omaha, Minneapolis and Amarillo is? Amarillo had 4.7" on May 2, 2005. Wichita, KS might be the place to watch as they have never had measurable snow in May and they have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Amarillo had 4.7" on May 2, 2005. Wichita, KS might be the place to watch as they have never had measurable snow in May and they have a shot. Manhattan KS had 7" on 5/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Manhattan KS had 7" on 5/26 That is ridiculous. Thats only like an hour or two from Wichita I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Wonder if Denver has had snow in every month? If not, wonder what elevation you'd have to go to in order to say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Wonder if Denver has had snow in every month? If not, wonder what elevation you'd have to go to in order to say that? measurable every month but July I'd guess 7500', maybe even less has had measurable in July... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 1, 2013 Author Share Posted May 1, 2013 measurable every month but July I'd guess 7500', maybe even less has had measurable in July... 3 out of the 7 july 4th weeks had measurable to the valley floor when I lived 80 miles west of Devner. The valley floor was 8,900. 7 - 7,500 seems quite reasonable. We had frost more often than not during summer too. I remember scraping it off my motorcycle seat before riding to work quite often. The cool part was that it would hit 70 - 75 by noon. 40 degrees in 6 hours was common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 3 out of the 7 july 4th weeks had measurable to the valley floor when I lived 80 miles west of Devner. The valley floor was 8,900. 7 - 7,500 seems quite reasonable. We had frost more often than not during summer too. I remember scraping it off my motorcycle seat before riding to work quite often. The cool part was that it would hit 70 - 75 by noon. 40 degrees in 6 hours was common. yes...awesome climate...I know Breckenridge has had a 6" event on July 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 I want to move to Denver. I might just go without my girlfriend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 I want to move to Denver. I might just go without my girlfriend. Dying for that May snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Dying for that May snow?They have a really interesting climate locally plus it's like an hour from monster supercell country and a short drive from much of the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 1, 2013 Author Share Posted May 1, 2013 They have a really interesting climate locally plus it's like an hour from monster supercell country and a short drive from much of the Plains. You would probably love it there. Denver has a really fun social culture. And it's a very active and physically fit environment. The amount of things to do and see within a 200 mile radius takes years to experience. They don't get as much snow as most people think and winter isn't "brutal". The foothills are a short drive and they will get 1-3' storms almost every winter on top of the garden variety stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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