IWXwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Brandon Redmond is giving most of us some love: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good calls, although I would go with more like 4-6 for ORD instead. Dude every model has higher amounts for ORD. Reasons you're going low??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good calls, although I would go with more like 4-6 for ORD instead. I cannot believe how everyone is basically chopping the consensus model qpf in half with their Chicago calls. Makes no sense. Probably will be close to 10-1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DTW: 4-6" for Detroit?- I thought this was missing southeast Michigan It was until last nights models starting trending significantly northward. they have settled back some, but SE MI is certainly more in the game than we were at any point prior to yesterday. Still, gonna be a FINE line we are riding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michigansnowstorm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I see the NAM was the best thing going for southeast Michigan, but the last run even took the accumulating snows further south....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Dude every model has higher amounts for ORD. Reasons you're going low??? Yeah really? I would not mind hearing that as well. Unsure if anyone noticed but the forum is now running on storm mode operating status. Those not familiar with it i urge to click that link above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Must remember, computer models aren't final solutions...they're guidance. Anyway, my preliminary calls are taking some QPF off the top...and adjusting the storm slightly north from currently modeled. I don't think either move is crazy, based off history. In the end, it's just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Boy just a little north and I get dumped on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Must remember, computer models aren't final solutions. Let alone at this range. Anyway, my preliminary calls are taking some QPF off the top...and adjusting the storm slightly north from currently modeled. I don't think either move is crazy, based off history. In the end, it's just for fun. Well you were wise enough not to include BTL in your call. But your reasoning ( which you offered atleast ) seems fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well you were wise enough not to include BTL in your call. But your reasoning ( which you offered atleast ) seems fine. Don't want to jinx you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No Geos jackpot, no good. They better redraw that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Must remember, computer models aren't final solutions...they're guidance. Anyway, my preliminary calls are taking some QPF off the top...and adjusting the storm slightly north from currently modeled. I don't think either move is crazy, based off history. In the end, it's just for fun. Exactly. Using your template, here are some of my calls FWIW.... DBQ: 7-10" DTW: <1" FWA: 4-8" GRR: 1-3" LSE: 5-7" MDW: 7-10" MKE: 6-8" MKG: 1-3" MLI: 6-8" MSN: 9-11" ORD: 7-10" RFD: 7-10" SBN: 7-10" LAF: 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Dude every model has higher amounts for ORD. Reasons you're going low??? Yeah really? I would not mind hearing that as well. Unsure if anyone noticed but the forum is now running on storm mode operating status. Those not familiar with it i urge to click that link above. You guys are right. I apologize and I'll explain: ORD and MDW seem to be in a good place for the GFS and Euro, and to some extent, the NAM. I know that ratios are going to be pretty solid throughout most of the event, and I don't think we're going to have to deal with bl issues. I'm a little concerned with the 900mb layer (as someone pointed out earlier, there is some discrepancy as to how warm the lower levels will be), but I don't think it will be too much of a problem. Aside from that, there are a few things I'm worrying about: 1. Future north trends: we still have a fair amount of time before the main show gets here. 2. The 18z runs tend to be (at least in my prior experience) slightly further southeast than the 0z or 12z runs, which is a little worrying. 3. Dryslot concerns. The low passes dangerously close to the Chicago area. 4. Models may be overdoing QPF. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not downplaying this event in the least bit. This will be the biggest event for Chicago of the season. If you go back earlier in this thread, I was one of the first to start honking about this threat. I'm excited for the potential, but I'm also tempering my expectations. Right now, I still consider 3-5 a good bet for the Chicago area, with 5-8 up by the Wisconsin border. Obviously, this could very well be adjusted in the future. I'm just trying to be responsible about my forecasting, and quite honestly it seems to have worked so far this winter. I hope that explains any questions or reservations you may have about my forecast. I don't mean to be annoying or too subtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Exactly. Using your template, here are some of my calls FWIW.... DBQ: 7-10" DTW: <1" FWA: 4-8" GRR: 1-3" LSE: 5-7" MDW: 7-10" MKE: 6-8" MKG: 1-3" MLI: 6-8" MSN: 9-11" ORD: 7-10" RFD: 7-10" SBN: 7-10" LAF: 3-6" Euro or bust? Good luck. I hope like hell you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Must remember, computer models aren't final solutions...they're guidance. Anyway, my preliminary calls are taking some QPF off the top...and adjusting the storm slightly north from currently modeled. I don't think either move is crazy, based off history. In the end, it's just for fun. nice and totally agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 jackpot zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Must remember, computer models aren't final solutions...they're guidance. Anyway, my preliminary calls are taking some QPF off the top...and adjusting the storm slightly north from currently modeled. I don't think either move is crazy, based off history. In the end, it's just for fun. 100% agree. I feel as though we share similar thoughts. I do hope though that everything works out for you in the end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro or bust? Good luck. I hope like hell you're right. In a way, kinda. Sort of a blend of the GFS, but leaned heavily on the Euro. Even the RGEM/GEM look similar to the Euro, but the GEM hasn't done very well this season. Having many of the globals in relative agreement gives me some confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Desperate times. Please forgive me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This is what our system is currently producing in Billings MT KBIL 032234Z 32032G45KT 1/4SM R10L/2400V3000FT SN FZFG VV007 M01/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 PK WND 33050/2220 GSE01B10E25GRB01E10 TSE34 P0011 T10111022 $ KBIL 032225Z 33033G50KT 1/4SM R10L/1400V2800FT +TSSN FZFG BKN005CB OVC030 M01/M02 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 33050/2220 TWR VIS 1/4 GSE01B10E25GRB01E10 FRQ LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV E P0011 T10111017 $ KBIL 032217Z 33037G50KT 1/4SM R10L/1400V2000FT +TSSNGS BKN005CB OVC034 M01/M01 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 32050/2209 TWR VIS 1/4 GSE01B10GRB01E10 FRQ LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV E P0011 T10111011 $ KBIL 032202Z 32034G45KT 1/4SM R10L/2600V2800FT +TSGRSN BKN005CB OVC034 01/M01 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 32045/2200 TWR VIS 1/4 GSE01GRB01 FRQ LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV E GR 1/4 P0002 T00061006 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Desperate times. Please forgive me. you've earned it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This is what our system is currently producing in Billings MT KBIL 032234Z 32032G45KT 1/4SM R10L/2400V3000FT SN FZFG VV007 M01/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 PK WND 33050/2220 GSE01B10E25GRB01E10 TSE34 P0011 T10111022 $ KBIL 032225Z 33033G50KT 1/4SM R10L/1400V2800FT +TSSN FZFG BKN005CB OVC030 M01/M02 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 33050/2220 TWR VIS 1/4 GSE01B10E25GRB01E10 FRQ LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV E P0011 T10111017 $ KBIL 032217Z 33037G50KT 1/4SM R10L/1400V2000FT +TSSNGS BKN005CB OVC034 M01/M01 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 32050/2209 TWR VIS 1/4 GSE01B10GRB01E10 FRQ LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV E P0011 T10111011 $ KBIL 032202Z 32034G45KT 1/4SM R10L/2600V2800FT +TSGRSN BKN005CB OVC034 01/M01 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 32045/2200 TWR VIS 1/4 GSE01GRB01 FRQ LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV E GR 1/4 P0002 T00061006 $ currently a warned cell in MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Desperate times. Please forgive me. Lock it :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 currently a warned cell in MT That cell went through Billings an hour or so ago and dropped them from 54 to 30, and now they have heavy snow and 50mph winds. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 currently a warned cell in MT ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MST FOR NORTH CENTRAL BIG HORN COUNTY... AT 323 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORM WERE LOCATED NEAR HARDIN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY SNOW WHICH WILL CAUSE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HARDIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Gefs mean jackpot alek and Chicago crew at hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That cell went through Billings an hour or so ago and dropped them from 54 to 30, and now they have heavy snow and 50mph winds. Wow. awesome weather for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This is what our system is currently producing in Billings MT KBIL 032234Z 32032G45KT 1/4SM R10L/2400V3000FT SN FZFG VV007 M01/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 PK WND 33050/2220 GSE01B10E25GRB01E10 TSE34 P0011 T10111022 $ KBIL 032225Z 33033G50KT 1/4SM R10L/1400V2800FT +TSSN FZFG BKN005CB OVC030 M01/M02 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 33050/2220 TWR VIS 1/4 GSE01B10E25GRB01E10 FRQ LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV E P0011 T10111017 $ KBIL 032217Z 33037G50KT 1/4SM R10L/1400V2000FT +TSSNGS BKN005CB OVC034 M01/M01 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 32050/2209 TWR VIS 1/4 GSE01B10GRB01E10 FRQ LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV E P0011 T10111011 $ KBIL 032202Z 32034G45KT 1/4SM R10L/2600V2800FT +TSGRSN BKN005CB OVC034 01/M01 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 32045/2200 TWR VIS 1/4 GSE01GRB01 FRQ LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV E GR 1/4 P0002 T00061006 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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