clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro looks remarkably similar to its runs earlier in the week. It is still showing the Sunday wave just off of the coast. I think that still needs to be watched. If it is a little bit stronger DCA might have a chance for some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro looks remarkably similar to its runs earlier in the week. It is still showing the Sunday wave just off of the coast. I think that still needs to be watched. If it is a little bit stronger DCA might have a chance for some flakes. Does the Euro have an "L" parked in the Great Lakes as well? Because, if so, how are we getting flakes out of anything off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Has anyone seen the ECMWF ensembles? I know it's JB (take with a grain of salt), but I'm curious to see what he is getting at. Just a few mins ago he posted: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi http://Weatherbell.com snow forecast has had New England and now plains verified. Mid atlantic left to fill in.ECMWF ensembles say lookout! Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Of the 1200 possible candidates for D plus 8, D plus 11 in the super analog package, NINE are from great end game yrs of 2010,1969! Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Did he just say 9/1200? Has anyone seen the ECMWF ensembles? I know it's JB (take with a grain of salt), but I'm curious to see what he is getting at. Just a few mins ago he posted: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi http://Weatherbell.com snow forecast has had New England and now plains verified. Mid atlantic left to fill in.ECMWF ensembles say lookout! Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Of the 1200 possible candidates for D plus 8, D plus 11 in the super analog package, NINE are from great end game yrs of 2010,1969! Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro and GFS are a disaster for Mon night into Tuesday Well the GFS is close. Its 0z run is closer, but even the 6z run isn't that far off. The Euro has 850's below freezing Monday night and barely above by Tuesday night. But I can't see its precip. I guess it depends on one's definition of a disaster. If you are looking for a foot of snow, you probably need to come back about mid December. It ain't gonna happen. I have about a 99% chance of being right on that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Did he just say 9/1200? LOL. Maybe he meant 12? Let's hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We didn't have a great end game in 2010. Winter ended on 2/10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well the GFS is close. Its 0z run is closer, but even the 6z run isn't that far off. The Euro has 850's below freezing Monday night and barely above by Tuesday night. But I can't see its precip. I guess it depends on one's definition of a disaster. If you are looking for a foot of snow, you probably need to come back about mid December. It ain't gonna happen. I have about a 99% chance of being right on that call. What about 3 inches? Or a simple extreme low end warning criteria event for the cities as well as for your snow paradise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It really sucks right now to see Kansas City get demolished on roughly our same latitude....totally diff climo but still. Maybe we can get a half inch of slush Fri afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro ensembles haven't been updating on Raleigh's site. The analogs look for similar patterns within a month (+/-) of the current date, I believe, but that would only be 20 years (1200 possible days/60 days). So, I'm not sure what he means there. Either way, the D+11 GFS superensemble analogs do have some heavy-hitters (KU) within a few days of them...Feb 11, 2010, Feb 28, 2010, February 16, 1969. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We didn't have a great end game in 2010. Winter ended on 2/10/10. NYC and points north did. I'm sure if Boston gets another 2" this winter, he'll verify his forecast of us having a good "end game" because there were storms around and he "nailed the pattern". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We didn't have a great end game in 2010. Winter ended on 2/10/10. Yeah I was gonna say.. God Jb is full of crap. Worst met ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro ensembles finally updated on Raleigh's site...not sure what JB is seeing that looks so good (stunner, I know). They look a lot like the GFS ensemble mean for Days 8-10...this quasi-stationary "Low" well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and New England, which probably means some members have storms develop and move along that trough axis, but that most do not. Edit...I should add that that sort of depiction could also mean that there's a very broad range of timing of any such low that develops and moves along that trough axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 according to EC ensemble snowfall map we get zip till march 2. What is bastardi talking about by "lookout" he posts on his twitter page?? Just a quizzical remark, as no one here can probably answer that question!! Wusaf guess you answered the question very well above this post/!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This no thread for storms thing is kind of silly. 12z NAM is wetter than yesterday, ~0.25" frozen of all varieties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro ensembles finally updated on Raleigh's site...not sure what JB is seeing that looks so good (stunner, I know). They look a lot like the GFS ensemble mean for Days 8-10...this quasi-stationary "Low" well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and New England, which probably means some members have storms develop and move along that trough axis, but that most do not. Edit...I should add that that sort of depiction could also mean that there's a very broad range of timing of any such low that develops and moves along that trough axis. JB lives in a world where intrigue and page views are more important than logical forecasting. Unfortunately there is a big market for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This no thread for storms thing is kind of silly. 12z NAM is wetter than yesterday, ~0.25" frozen of all varieties. Can't speak for Randy, but I'm good if you start a thread for tomorrow/Saturday. P.S. NAM at 36hrs says I break the streak (and so does DCA, but lolz yeah right). I'm huggin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Can't speak for Randy, but I'm good if you start a thread for tomorrow/Saturday. lol no one needs to speak for anyone. there was never a rule about starting threads.. the problem was when people started them 6 days out. the rest is silly superstition. tho we're probably being nam'ed... plus the time of day is going to be a problem around me at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Can't speak for Randy, but I'm good if you start a thread for tomorrow/Saturday. P.S. NAM at 36hrs says I break the streak (and so does DCA, but lolz yeah right). I'm huggin'. Wanna go sledding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Can't speak for Randy, but I'm good if you start a thread for tomorrow/Saturday. P.S. NAM at 36hrs says I break the streak (and so does DCA, but lolz yeah right). I'm huggin'. does it? we're going to get 2"+ during the day with light rates? doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'm still worried about a warm nose. Looks pretty toasty above 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 tho we're probably being nam'ed... plus the time of day is going to be a problem around me at least. Precip comes in after 18z it looks like. Then looks like ~0.2" over the next 6 hours. You'll have wet pavement...I'll have a snowman. Wanna go sledding? Most def. does it? we're going to get 2"+ during the day with light rates? doubtful. Speak for yourself . I said I'm huggin' the NAM...draw your own conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wanna go sledding? I'm right next door to both you guys. Kids and I would be in! Is there a good hill? Man I hope we can at least cover the grass tips! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Does the Euro have an "L" parked in the Great Lakes as well? Because, if so, how are we getting flakes out of anything off the coast? Strength of the vort. It is very weak on the model right now. But who knows if any of it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NYC and points north did. I'm sure if Boston gets another 2" this winter, he'll verify his forecast of us having a good "end game" because there were storms around and he "nailed the pattern". BTW--Thanks for researching the JB crap. Obviously he is just trying to save his forecast for the Mid-Atlantic. Can only hope the blind squirrel finds a nut... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro ensembles haven't been updating on Raleigh's site. The analogs look for similar patterns within a month (+/-) of the current date, I believe, but that would only be 20 years (1200 possible days/60 days). So, I'm not sure what he means there. Either way, the D+11 GFS superensemble analogs do have some heavy-hitters (KU) within a few days of them...Feb 11, 2010, Feb 28, 2010, February 16, 1969. dont forget March 2001 and march 93 are thrown in there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 dont forget March 2001 and march 93 are thrown in there too We pretend March 2001 didn't happen. I saw the '93 reference, but the superstorm was a full 10 days later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We pretend March 2001 didn't happen. I saw the '93 reference, but the superstorm was a full 10 days later... Growing up in NJ, i like to pretend that too lol...still painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The vort diving down and running underneath the closed ull on the 28th is still there and getting juicier every run. If the placement of the features is close to what has been modeled next week then this is then one to do it. Moreso than any of these convoluted gl / secondary crapfests that are queued up the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Has anyone seen the ECMWF ensembles? I know it's JB (take with a grain of salt), but I'm curious to see what he is getting at. Just a few mins ago he posted: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi http://Weatherbell.com snow forecast has had New England and now plains verified. Mid atlantic left to fill in.ECMWF ensembles say lookout! Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Of the 1200 possible candidates for D plus 8, D plus 11 in the super analog package, NINE are from great end game yrs of 2010,1969! Amazing He is a spin master and plays on the assumption that most poeple do not have the knowledge to know when he is feeding them BS. He is finally admitting at least that his mid atlantic forecast is in big trouble if something doesnt change. No matter what his temp forecast will bust, and he needs a miracle to back door his way to a verification on snowfall. But what he implies with those dates is misleading at best since 1969 did nothing for us, and the 2010 analogs showing up are mostly from late Feb and March, AFTER the snowy period for us...during the period where NY and New England cashed in. Neither of those analogs is encouraging at all for the mid atlantic which is the area he admits he needs help and tries to imply the ensembles show it is coming. The only analog popping up recently that has promise for our area is the March 1960, that was a 22" snowfall month at BWI. Most of what JB says anymore is manipulative and spin with a sprinkling of truth to make it seem belieavable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.