Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What's an absolutely weird run. Decaying ull absorbs the vort in the south and creates a close 540 contour stretching from TN to LI. I think we can go ahead and toss this one. There is no freekin way it goes down like this. it's like the worst good overall pattern run ever. some light precip breaks out around 180! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 LMAO, @ 192 hrs its still trying to form a main low along the coast. The exteme block is giving it no place to get lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 it's like the worst good overall pattern run ever. some light precip breaks out around 180! Yea, there's like a massive cold pool aloft. Like the size of 9 states. Instability squalls? Heck, I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Whether we get snow or not it will be interesting to see how this pattern actually goes down. Interesting met. pattern ahead, so many pieces of energy its nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yea, there's like a massive cold pool aloft. Like the size of 9 states. Instability squalls? Heck, I have no idea. it just keeps getting weirder as it runs too. at 198 there is a big area of light precip over the southeast. good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Big ole rain bomb for me.. secondary tracks just west of DC. Could be a good one for the mtns. GFS was a coastal plains runner as well, and while 850 temps looked decent for the mountains, the near-surface is an absolute torch on the GFS with the surface freezing line in Canada. Is Euro colder? I can't tell 100% but it sure looks like we get into some wrap around from the ull @ 144 Once that big ULL forms, I think we get instability snow showers off and on for a few days. Doubt they amount to much, but I could easily see a few cartoppers in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It's the Euro? Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GFS was a coastal plains runner as well, and while 850 temps looked decent for the mountains, the near-surface is an absolute torch on the GFS with the surface freezing line in Canada. Is Euro colder? pretty much the same on the whole tho it has some pockets in wv that arebelow freezing. drops like 8-16"' in the mtns up into new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GFS was a coastal plains runner as well, and while 850 temps looked decent for the mountains, the near-surface is an absolute torch on the GFS with the surface freezing line in Canada. Is Euro colder? Once that big ULL forms, I think we get instability snow showers off and on for a few days. Doubt they amount to much, but I could easily see a few cartoppers in the mix. I think the more remarkable (and probably less believable thing) is the fact that the closed ull passes basically overhead, hits a stone wall, starts swelling to massive proportions, absorbs a vort coming out of the south, then becomes the size of the entire eastern third of the country. It carves a trough as big as pd-bust but it does it backwards. I've watched a lot of model runs the last 6 years. I can't say I've seen one like this. Needless to say, the block is wreaking havoc on solutions. Who knows how it's going to shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GGEM has brought the big storm back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Late run the low finally bombs.. and crushes Boston. Woo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 And to add to the wackiness. 850 freezing line pushes all the way to lake okeechobee @ 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 looking at the snow map.. this run might actually be right. nice little inverted v of nothing up through DC with 2' near Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 looking at the snow map.. this run might actually be right. nice little inverted v of nothing up through DC with 2' near Boston. sounds like the idea of an eastern storm is back on table March 1-4. Well worry about getting screwed later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I like the way the low that bombs off the coast and misses us runs into the same block that starts the whole mess and the low backs into NE nice and slow and snows for days and days. Good times good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 looking at the snow map.. this run might actually be right. nice little inverted v of nothing up through DC with 2' near Boston. Anything that gives us nothing and Boston 2 feet has got to be right. ....Very strange Euro run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Running the 500 panels does pique some interest even though it's low low prob. The bowling ball in the mw basically gets pushed right over us by the block instead of continuing to cut. I suppose it's possible for that ull to pass further south and have re-development further south. Talking slim odds here but I don't think we can just dismiss the euro completely with the way it handles the closed low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Running the 500 panels does pique some interest even though it's low low prob. The bowling ball in the mw basically gets pushed right over us by the block instead of continuing to cut. I suppose it's possible for that ull to pass further south and have re-development further south. Talking slim odds here but I don't think we can just dismiss the euro completely with the way it handles the closed low. Jay Hatem Weather is all in until 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 WOW @ that ggem 240hr storm....yeah, its fantasy, but makes me drool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I like the way the low that bombs off the coast and misses us runs into the same block that starts the whole mess and the low backs into NE nice and slow and snows for days and days. Good times good times. remind you of anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 when does the ECMWF "out of control" run come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Low in the Gulf forming at 240 on the Euro? Reaching here... With mega-blocking and some big s/w's in the flow, the solutions are going to be wild. I'd still forecast Feb 28-March 5 as cold with scattered snow showers for now. P.S. How does that big baggy low at 192 give us NOTHING? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 And to add to the wackiness. 850 freezing line pushes all the way to lake okeechobee @ 216. Not what bass fisherman want to here. It is a strange looking run. Even if we end up getting a better evolution and storm, boundary layer problems are likely to mess things up with the funky evolution with the low to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Low in the Gulf forming at 240 on the Euro? Reaching here... With mega-blocking and some big s/w's in the flow, the solutions are going to be wild. I'd still forecast Feb 28-March 5 as cold with scattered snow showers for now. P.S. How does that big baggy low at 192 give us NOTHING? The feb 28 to March 5 timeframe does look interesting as the D+11 superens you showed early has a really nice look to it and at these time ranges, the real solution for individual days may not even be one of the ens member look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The feb 28 to March 5 timeframe does look interesting as the D+11 superens you showed early has a really nice look to it and at these time ranges, the real solution for individual days may not even be one of the ens member look. when is your fishing trip? That might be our best hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 when is your fishing trip? That might be our best hope Not information I want to post on the internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not what bass fisherman want to here. It is a strange looking run. Even if we end up getting a better evolution and storm, boundary layer problems are likely to mess things up with the funky evolution with the low to the north. Wes, it's a crazy run from 120 on all the way to the end. I think it's more a factor of the euro saying "hey, that's a nasty wall of denial between ME and Greenland and figuring out how the features below it evolve is practically impossible at this point". The tough is deep as crap for early march but the axis still stinks for us. Luckily it's definitely going to look very different for many runs to come. Maybe we accidentally get some snow, break the streak, flip to torch, and go bass fishin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Just not enough space between the waves on Day 6-8....What a different run compared to 00z though...shows the EUROs lack of continuity. euro has been very inconsistent and usually way off in the 5-10 day range. It is doing better in the 2-4 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 it's like the worst good overall pattern run ever. some light precip breaks out around 180! It remains so close to popping something for our area. Problem is it has vorts swinging around the pinwheel all over the place and nothing consolidates. I like the look and think as we get closer there is a good chance one of these can take over and amplify. I also think the usual bias at this range is to be too deep with h5 features and if you relax that pinwheel a bit we can get something going. This pattern still holds potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens500mbHGHTNA240.gif I would not sleep on that signal, no matter what the op runs show the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.