user13 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z NAM is pretty...but it's overdone. I say cut the totals in half and run with your accums. So 3 in. of QPF with 10 or 12: 1 ratio = 15 in. or so. In past snow storms nams precip was ussualy right (maybe 15% overdone at most) although track was not perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If I was a rich man, I'd be hopping on a flight right now from Jerusalem to witness this thing. Gah - enjoy it guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't understand this. The NAM shows everyone getting 2-4" OF QPF, almost all snow for everyone, except for maybe a couple of hours during the transfer. This is a flat-out crippling, crushing snowstorm. 18+ is conservative's conservative. The NAM dumps 30+" of snow for everyone, east Jersey and east. Reality, as we know, is that we should cut these totals in half. But this run as is...utterly destroys us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z NAM is pretty...but it's overdone. I say cut the totals in half and run with your accums. So 3 in. of QPF with 10 or 12: 1 ratio = 15 in. or so. I'd say 2" or so QPF is possible given the strong last few Euro runs and GFS adjusted west a little, plus ensembles. Those definitely aren't models known for over-hyping QPF, and the dynamics look literally off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just got out of an Upton briefing, said they're upping totals to 10-16 NYC and LI, blizzard watches/WS watches to become warnings, considering blizzard warning for NYC as well. I was surprised to see Mt Holly only going 6-10 in some of their areas, thought we might see 8-12 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 no words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 JFK rides the line at 850 or so MB's from 24-30 hours but i would think it can be overcome (I dont think it would be higher than +0.2 or so anyway)... here are the images hr 27 hr 30 hr 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Latest map from Upton: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just got out of an Upton briefing, said they're upping totals to 10-16 NYC and LI, blizzard watches/WS watches to become warnings, considering blizzard warning for NYC as well. Thanks for the heads up. Time to go to the store and get some extra milk, bread, and other stuff. Everybody enjoy the upcoming event. Please post your pictures and measurements too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 no words Took the words right outta my mouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't understand this. The NAM shows everyone getting 2-4" OF QPF, almost all snow for everyone, except for maybe a couple of hours during the transfer. This is a flat-out crippling, crushing snowstorm. 18+ is conservative's conservative. The NAM dumps 30+" of snow for everyone, east Jersey and east. It isn't so easy to get 30" of snow. Physics, microphysics, thermodynamics, dynamics, and statistics suggest so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 3" QPF for all in E NJ/ NYC / C-E LI....and almost all is snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I am actually a bit surprised Mt.Holly didn't go a bit higher on accumulations for my area, I am just south or the Union Co. border and right across from Richmond Co. NY, they are still holding at 6-10" but like I mentioned in a previous post I think that will certainly go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 13" i'll take it, wouldn't be surprised to see that change later tonight to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 looks like 3.85" QPF at JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That NAM snow depth map is suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The 4KM has a nice improvement in the CAD centered on 20z Friday. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 HI-RES NAM Sim at HR 27: The entire metro area gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I was surprised to see Mt Holly only going 6-10 in some of their areas, thought we might see 8-12 at least. Not unusual for them - they usually play catchup with every storm I have experienced over the 40 years in NJ. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 10 -16 is fair , they started 3-6 went to 6- 10 , they have to leave themselves some wiggle room . If the 0z runs spit out 2 plus qpf and tomorrows BL are colder than progged for tomorrow , they go to 16 - 22 , But dont think u make that jump all at once . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 First Blizzard Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY336 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013CTZ001-013-081030-/O.UPG.KALY.WS.A.0001.130208T1100Z-130209T1100Z//O.NEW.KALY.BZ.W.0001.130208T1100Z-130209T1700Z/NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...TERRYVILLE336 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON ESTSATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING...AND BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY... OCCASIONALLY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS...WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDSAND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUTCONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IFYOU MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GETSTRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I wish ScreenHunter_14 Feb. 07 15.43.png That's more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No matter what guidance you use...go south of NYC and you lose a bunch of precip to rain and mix. Until you get into some excellent VV's will you go over to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Latest map from Upton: Wow, and those likely will be adjusted even higher later tonight/tomorrow. Given the southern stream/Gulf origin, I can see the high QPF amounts here. I don't see models being hugely overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Latest map from Upton: Wow, and those likely will be adjusted even higher later tonight/tomorrow. Given the southern stream/Gulf origin, I can see the high QPF amounts here. I don't see models being hugely overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hires nam has the main band slight east of op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 That was, without a doubt, the most extreme model run I've seen around here in regards to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That was, without a doubt, the most extreme model run I've seen around here in regards to snow. And the duration is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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