JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Gona have to bring that 18- 24 line down to just south of the NYC , I know its a big leap and it isn`t common for Upton to go from 6 - 10 to 18- 24 but i thnk theres a lot of evidence to go there ... AND MT HOLLY stilll goin with 4- 6 on Monmouth County . That`s gotta be adjusted as well prob 8- 12 and thats on the cheap end . Yeah I think everyone north of I-195 will see 12-18 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Upton's snow map still only has 6-8 for the city, but it's still from the morning update. I'm sure it will update with the afternoon package. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This will probably be the case of them gradually upping totals even as the storm begins. Either that or by tonight they will probably up any of those lower totals. I still think it's best to stay conservative at this point, I could see them showing 10-15 for the city tonight with more over parts of LI. I'm assuming they hadn't looked at any of the 12z guidance and was going off what Bloomberg said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmaster Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 1010 wins saying 6-12 city east..3-6 south and west That is what they were saying at 8:00 am...Kinda sad if they're still saying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What about KMMU? 1.7" of liquid for KMMU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The the free euro maps on Wunderground are pure beauty with the phase and CCB monster stall and dump. If that's the case there could be widespread 18"+ amounts, maybe even over 24". 1/27/11 dumped a foot in 3-4 hours, imagine this for 12 or more hours? The main concern I have unfortunately is for homes still with significant Sandy-related damage. This storm's really going to pack a punch and flooding is another concern with new moon tides. It's going to have an extra-severe impact in areas like here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 1.7" of liquid for KMMU Thanks for posting that!! Is kfwn about the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If that's the case there could be widespread 18"+ amounts, maybe even over 24". 1/27/11 dumped a foot in 3-4 hours, imagine this for 12 or more hours? The main concern I have unfortunately is for homes still with significant Sandy-related damage. This storm's really going to pack a punch and flooding is another concern with new moon tides. It's going to have an extra-severe impact in areas like here. With N/NNE winds, probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That is what they were saying at 8:00 am...Kinda sad if they're still saying it. I doubt that they have time to sit around and weenie out like we do lol.....they'll update it in concert with all the other media outlets later.....Plus, they don't do knee jerk decision making (like we do) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 2/7/2012 12z ECWMF: QPF Connecticut: Bridgeport: 2.84” Danbury: 2.44” Groton: 2.45” Hartford: 2.21” New Haven: 2.76” Maine: Augusta: 1.28” Bangor: 1.15” Caribou: 0.23” Houlton: 0.54” Lewiston: 1.43" Portland: 1.78” Massachusetts: Bedford: 2.53” Beverly: 2.60” Boston: 2.73” Chicopee Falls: 1.99” Fitchburg: 2.17” Hyannis: 2.54” Martha’s Vineyard: 2.62” Milton: 2.77” Nantucket: 2.43” New Bedford: 2.82” Norwood: 2.74” Pittsfield: 1.32” Plymouth: 2.74” Provincetown: 2.57” Taunton: 2.86” Westfield: 2.01” Worcester: 2.32” New Hampshire: Berlin: 0.75” Concord: 1.64” Jaffrey: 1.86” Keene: 1.60” Lebanon: 1.04” Manchester: 1.89” Nashua: 2.00” Portsmouth: 2.14” Whitefield: 0.77” New Jersey: Belmar: 2.42” Caldwell: 1.81” Newark: 2.08” Sussex: 1.27” Teterboro: 2.09” Trenton: 1.65” New York: Albany: 0.77” Islip: 3.06” New York City: …JFK: 2.70” …LGA: 2.39” …NYC: 2.25” Newburgh: 1.46” Poughkeepsie: 1.60” Westhampton Beach: 2.76” White Plains: 2.41” Rhode Island: Newport: 2.70” Providence: 2.69” Westerly: 2.50” Vermont: Burlington: 0.42” Montpelier: 0.53” Rutland: 0.75” St. Johnsbury: 0.53” Note: Not every city is entirely snow. Some cities also have 850 mb temperatures > 0°C for at least a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That is what they were saying at 8:00 am...Kinda sad if they're still saying it. Just heard recent 1010/accu forecast...said just upped NYC and east to 6"-10" Still not calling for all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Calling for 35-40" two days in advance is just plain stupid. I don't care if every single model was showing it. You can only get burned that way because the odds of that happening are slim to none. Even if you get 24" there is a major difference between 24" which is still somewhat manageable and 35-40" which will shut down everything for days. For all the people that have been complaining about the past two winters and how crappy things have been looking, let this event be a lesson to all of you that the next big KU could only be one model run away. It was very idiotic of them to do that. Those are beyond blizzard of 96 numbers and probably the worst that could ever occur over this area. I'd rather them being conservative than crazy over the top when it comes to snowstorms. Conservative doesn't apply to any hurricanes/tropical storm, in those cases, the worst that could occur should always be mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It looks like about 15-16 inches for NYC/LGA/EWR/JFK region overall on the Euro, but I'd be wary of that changeover being earlier and hence more of that other 0.70-0.80 being snow, the Euro has a changeover maybe around 01Z, but it could easily be 4-5 hours before that I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thanks for posting that!! Is kfwn about the same? No problem. KFWN sees 1.27" of liquid on the ECMWF. All snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It looks like about 15-16 inches for NYC/LGA/EWR/JFK region overall on the Euro, but I'd be wary of that changeover being earlier and hence more of that other 0.70-0.80 being snow, the Euro has a changeover maybe around 01Z, but it could easily be 4-5 hours before that I think. wait - the euro rains/sleets for almost 6 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Upton's snow map still only has 6-8 for the city, but it's still from the morning update. I'm sure it will update with the afternoon package. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php They were a day late and 6' short on Sandy's Battery Park Surge too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Apparently. However, if we start as snow overnight and it stays snow in the morning, I have a hard time believing that it changes to rain during the afternoon and back to snow overnight. wait - the euro rains/sleets for almost 6 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 wait - the euro rains/sleets for almost 6 hours? It does something other than snow but the Euro can sometimes be too warm in these dynamic cooling events much like most models. I think the key tomorrow for anyone near the coast is see when that winds comes around north of 060, as soon as we go 030-050 we're probably going to changeover quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 2/7/2012 12z ECWMF: QPF Connecticut: Bridgeport: 2.84” Danbury: 2.44” Groton: 2.45” Hartford: 2.21” New Haven: 2.76” Maine: Augusta: 1.28” Bangor: 1.15” Caribou: 0.23” Houlton: 0.54” Lewiston: 0.06” Portland: 1.78” Massachusetts: Bedford: 2.53” Beverly: 2.60” Boston: 2.73” Chicopee Falls: 1.99” Fitchburg: 2.17” Hyannis: 2.54” Martha’s Vineyard: 2.62” Milton: 2.77” Nantucket: 2.43” New Bedford: 2.82” Norwood: 2.74” Pittsfield: 1.32” Plymouth: 2.74” Provincetown: 2.57” Taunton: 2.86” Westfield: 2.01” Worcester: 2.32” New Hampshire: Berlin: 0.75” Concord: 1.64” Jaffrey: 1.86” Keene: 1.60” Lebanon: 1.04” Manchester: 1.89” Nashua: 2.00” Portsmouth: 2.14” Whitefield: 0.77” New Jersey: Belmar: 2.42” Caldwell: 1.81” Newark: 2.08” Sussex: 1.27” Teterboro: 2.09” Trenton: 1.65” New York: Albany: 0.77” Islip: 3.06” New York City: …JFK: 2.70” …LGA: 2.39” …NYC: 2.25” Newburgh: 1.46” Poughkeepsie: 1.60” Westhampton Beach: 2.76” White Plains: 2.41” Rhode Island: Newport: 2.70” Providence: 2.69” Westerly: 2.50” Vermont: Burlington: 0.42” Montpelier: 0.53” Rutland: 0.75” St. Johnsbury: 0.53” Note: Not every city is entirely snow. Some cities also have 850 mb temperatures > 0°C for at least a time. Safe to say those NYC hold onto 75 perc frozen ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 wait - the euro rains/sleets for almost 6 hours? I honestly don't think it does. There are portions of the precip where the surface temperatures are a bit above freezing, but it looks like pretty much all snow for NYC, and for JFK, probably 2" or slightly higher or so of that 2.7" of QPF are all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Safe to say those NYC hold onto 75 perc frozen ? From what I understand NYC and EWR and LGA are all snow. From ag3: NYC: 2.25"- All snow. The 1st .25" of it are 33-34 degrees. After, in the 20s LGA: 2.39"- All snow. The 1st .25" of it are 33-34 degrees. After, in the 20s EWR: 2.08"- All snow. The 1st .25" of it are 33-34 degrees. After, in the 20s. JFK: 2.70" - About .80" is with temps of 34-35 degrees. After that all below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It looks like about 15-16 inches for NYC/LGA/EWR/JFK region overall on the Euro, but I'd be wary of that changeover being earlier and hence more of that other 0.70-0.80 being snow, the Euro has a changeover maybe around 01Z, but it could easily be 4-5 hours before that I think. Im sorry. I respectively disagree here. The euro for NYC and LGA is 2.25" and 2.39" of total precip. Surface temps start at 36 degrees right when precip enters at 7am. By 1pm it's 34 degrees and only .26" has fallen. Anything after that is 33 degrees and below and as low as 26 degrees Saturday early morning. At worst, .25"-.30" of the precip is wet snow/mix and 2"-2.13" of it is pure and super heavy accumulating snow. Even using only 10 to 1 ratio, it's 20"+ for NYC and LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I honestly don't think it does. There are portions of the precip where the surface temperatures are a bit above freezing, but it looks like pretty much all snow for NYC, and for JFK, probably 2" or slightly higher or so of that 2.7" of QPF are all snow. Agree most of the new data points to all snow and again climatology is on our side right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I just realized how much of a pain in the behind this is going to be for those who aren't permitted to shovel Friday and Saturday. By Saturday night it will be impossible and frozen solid at the bottom. But who cares? IT'S GON' SNOW! Just spoke to one of my Jewish friends, said they are allowed to shovel, just can not use a blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 2/7/2012 12z ECWMF: QPF Connecticut: Bridgeport: 2.84” Danbury: 2.44” Groton: 2.45” Hartford: 2.21” New Haven: 2.76” Maine: Augusta: 1.28” Bangor: 1.15” Caribou: 0.23” Houlton: 0.54” Lewiston: 0.06” Portland: 1.78” Massachusetts: Bedford: 2.53” Beverly: 2.60” Boston: 2.73” Chicopee Falls: 1.99” Fitchburg: 2.17” Hyannis: 2.54” Martha’s Vineyard: 2.62” Milton: 2.77” Nantucket: 2.43” New Bedford: 2.82” Norwood: 2.74” Pittsfield: 1.32” Plymouth: 2.74” Provincetown: 2.57” Taunton: 2.86” Westfield: 2.01” Worcester: 2.32” New Hampshire: Berlin: 0.75” Concord: 1.64” Jaffrey: 1.86” Keene: 1.60” Lebanon: 1.04” Manchester: 1.89” Nashua: 2.00” Portsmouth: 2.14” Whitefield: 0.77” New Jersey: Belmar: 2.42” Caldwell: 1.81” Newark: 2.08” Sussex: 1.27” Teterboro: 2.09” Trenton: 1.65” New York: Albany: 0.77” Islip: 3.06” New York City: …JFK: 2.70” …LGA: 2.39” …NYC: 2.25” Newburgh: 1.46” Poughkeepsie: 1.60” Westhampton Beach: 2.76” White Plains: 2.41” Rhode Island: Newport: 2.70” Providence: 2.69” Westerly: 2.50” Vermont: Burlington: 0.42” Montpelier: 0.53” Rutland: 0.75” St. Johnsbury: 0.53” Note: Not every city is entirely snow. Some cities also have 850 mb temperatures > 0°C for at least a time. BLM 2.42" Hot dam, that a Mass like number (I'm sure some Mixing ?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Im sorry. I respectively disagree here. The euro for NYC and LGA is 2.25" and 2.39" of total precip. Surface temps start at 36 degrees right when precip enters at 7am. By 1pm it's 34 degrees and only .26" has fallen. Anything after that is 33 degrees and below and as low as 26 degrees Saturday early morning. At worst, .25"-.30" of the precip is wet snow/mix and 2"-2.13" of it is pure and super heacy accumulating snow. Even using only 10 to 1 ratio, it's 20"+ for NYC and LGA. I posted what you observed above hope that's okay and thanks for elaborating further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 From Mt. Holly AFD WE`VE HAD AN EASTERN REGION CONFERENCE CALL WITH NCEP AT NOON AND UNLESS THE ECMWF BACKS OFF CONSIDERABLY TO THE SE IN THE 12Z RUN...WE WILL WARN AND ADVISE. DETAILS TO BE FORTHCOMING AROUND 230 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 From what I understand NYC and EWR and LGA are all snow. From ag3: NYC: 2.25"- All snow. The 1st .25" of it are 33-34 degrees. After, in the 20s LGA: 2.39"- All snow. The 1st .25" of it are 33-34 degrees. After, in the 20s EWR: 2.08"- All snow. The 1st .25" of it are 33-34 degrees. After, in the 20s. JFK: 2.70" - About .80" is with temps of 34-35 degrees. After that all below 32. JFK loses a thrid . still puts em line for 18 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Apparently. However, if we start as snow overnight and it stays snow in the morning, I have a hard time believing that it changes to rain during the afternoon and back to snow overnight. It does something other than snow but the Euro can sometimes be too warm in these dynamic cooling events much like most models. I think the key tomorrow for anyone near the coast is see when that winds comes around north of 060, as soon as we go 030-050 we're probably going to changeover quickly. Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 JFK loses a thrid . still puts em line for 18 . With temps in the 20s now snow ratio may be higher than I originally thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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