Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The RAP isn't backing down. Man, what would tracking a solid system be like? yes...The RAP still gives Loudoun +SN later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 15z RAP! DCA: 0.14" IAD" 0.30" BWI: 0.17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 yes...The RAP still gives Loudoun +SN later might have to hop the metro to gaithersburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Can't tell yet but I think 16z may be even a bit more qpf. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Can't tell yet but I think 16z may be even a bit more qpf. heh kills it off pretty quick coming east of loudoun etc winterwxluvr should like the run tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 kills it off pretty quick coming east of loudoun etc winterwxluvr should like the run tho It does but still Verbatim I'm in .15-.2 3hr accum precip. Not saying it's right but that would be something. +sn for at least an hour I would assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 might have to hop the metro to gaithersburg I'll post pics Of my flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 It does but still Verbatim I'm in .15-.2 3hr accum precip. Not saying it's right but that would be something. +sn for at least an hour I would assume. none of the clippers have even dropped .1 at any of the airports so getting up there would be 'huge.' this one does seem to want to have more spillover rather than just development east of the apps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 JYO - 0.32" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 none of the clippers have even dropped .1 at any of the airports so getting up there would be 'huge.' this one does seem to want to have more spillover rather than just development east of the apps.. It's unusual. You can see the area of good vv's in the winchester/leesburg area just pop. Hard to say if it's worth biting too much at this point but dammit one of these has to surprise. You can't get like 50 clippers in 50 hours and not have something unexpected in a good way happen. And I'm not talking about getting .4 when you weren't expecting much of anything. That doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12z NMM/ARW are complete shutouts for DC metro. Model battle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 It's unusual. You can see the area of good vv's in the winchester/leesburg area just pop. Hard to say if it's worth biting too much at this point but dammit one of these has to surprise. You can't get like 50 clippers in 50 hours and not have something unexpected in a good way happen. And I'm not talking about getting .4 when you weren't expecting much of anything. That doesn't count. HRRR at least half less interesting. RAP is probably too wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 not that it deserves a bad rap (pun intended), but didn't the RAP do lousy with the last clipper I think giving DCA and IAD well over .10" qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 HRRR at least half less interesting. RAP is probably too wet. I agree about too wet. .30? nah. But it is hinting at some enhancement and good rates. That's probably worth keeping an eye on. Here's the vv's @ hr 9: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 not that it deserves a bad rap (pun intended), but didn't the RAP do lousy with the last clipper I think giving DCA and IAD well over .10" qpf? yesterday? i didnt look at qpf but it never looked all that exciting. it did pretty well on sat and had the idea of the stripe right on fri but had the heaviest a bit too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 surface obs stink regardless of any of the radars http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=at&expanddiv=hide_bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 15z RAP! DCA: 0.14" IAD" 0.30" BWI: 0.17" Dulles micro climate ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 yesterday? i didnt look at qpf but it never looked all that exciting. it did pretty well on sat and had the idea of the stripe right on fri but had the heaviest a bit too far west. yeah, I was thinking Friday as I didn't pay any attention to it over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I think the rap does a good job picking out enhancement in a relatively organized system (using this term loosely). A broken up ragged system is different. I'm not sure where this one stands. It's like a more organized broken up and ragged system or an organized system that isn't very organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I agree about too wet. .30? nah. But it is hinting at some enhancement and good rates. That's probably worth keeping an eye on. Here's the vv's @ hr 9: vvshr9.JPG yeah.. kinda mixed signals. the vort strength is kinda meh imo tho the pass isn't bad. the look seems to support some good rates somewhere in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Dulles micro climate ftw The soundings for DCA show all rain from the RAP. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=38.9594&sounding.lon=-77.1240&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=16&fhour=10¶meter=PCPIN&level=3&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The soundings for DCA show all rain from the RAP. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=38.9594&sounding.lon=-77.1240&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=16&fhour=10¶meter=PCPIN&level=3&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false That's all snow. It just melts on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 It's not going to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 yeah.. kinda mixed signals. the vort strength is kinda meh imo tho the pass isn't bad. the look seems to support some good rates somewhere in the area. Well we have all afternoon and evening of rap runs to disseminate. lol Take a peek at high res radar loop out @ KIND. That's sort of what I can envision happening here. Some nasty little band gets mixed into the overall broken up precip shield. That's a pretty vigorous band going on right now even though it's "county sized". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 It's not going to rain. melting on contact is close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Interesting trends, maybe it won't be just a flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Dulles micro climate ftw We are due! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 melting on contact is close enough DCA could potentially have sfc temp issues but just barely if so. It's not warm today and DP are fairly low. Places n and w should be totally fine. RAP seems too warm in the lowest levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Just for giggles... Henry at inaccuwx has the area in the 3-6 range for tonight. Can't seem to be able to post the map or link.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 DCA could potentially have sfc temp issues but just barely if so. It's not warm today and DP are fairly low. Places n and w should be totally fine. RAP seems too warm in the lowest levels. Temps havent come up as much as I thought they would based on forecasts. I'm sure DCA will spike at 4pm to hit 38 tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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