ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 The torch next week has vanishrd No, it is there, its just pretty muted and brief. Its maybe like a 12 hour spike into the 40s...perhaps maybe cracking 50F if we get a strong enough warm sector punch. Very wintry pattern returns after that though on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 No, it is there, its just pretty muted and brief. Its maybe like a 12 hour spike into the 40s...perhaps maybe cracking 50F if we get a strong enough warm sector punch. Very wintry pattern returns after that though on the Euro. Well that's what I meant. It went from 3-4 days to 10-12 hours of 40's lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Seems like 1 mild day Tuesday next week then back to winter. Hopefully the pack won't take too much of a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So how does next week look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So how does next week look? Blizzards and blizzards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Blizzards and blizzards Well none of the mets have answered any questions on it. We lost the mild up ..but looks like some ice events and 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well none of the mets have answered any questions on it. We lost the mild up ..but looks like some ice events and 30's Seriously dude the long range looks good. Back loaded winter FTW. BTW enjoy your storm. Currently a blizzard here in toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS has another storm for mid next week.. something to watch after this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Welp...Feb 4/5 S/W came an went not much fan fair with it but some precip dropped over NE...RWT energy was busted up into several pieces of energy so it is what it is LOL. The 7/8 RWT came across GLKS and did it's job teaming up with the southern wave and the rest is history!!!...5-10 degree warm up appears on track for Feb 11 with next RWT for 14/15 and then 16/17 and another 18/19. The 16/17 based on Mtn. Torque events appears it should dump a decent pocket of cold air across the northern tier for a brief period of time. Extending forecast....S/W arriving Feb. 21-22 with what appears to be a good shot of cold air behind it. Another S/W for Feb. 26-27 and then heading into March...cooler air arriving somewhere between March 5-9...I would venture a guess at a SW for March 4/5 with a decent warm temp spike ahead of it for March 2 or 3 with cooler air filtering in behind it for the 5-9 time frame. The RWT that was over India last week is still expected to arrive Feb 4 or 5 it appears as a clipper. Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7. Then Feb 7 or 8 another RWT which was over Africa last week should arrive and colder air moving in behind it for Feb 7-11. This one started off at a pretty high latitude so I believe it will be a weak clipper. It appears after that we will see at LEAST at 5-10 degree warm up for Feb. 11-13 ahead of the next system that will pass through the east Feb 14 or 15 with a quick shot of cooler air behind it before another S/W arrives Feb 18 or 19th (tentative)The pattern is really chaotic as HM, others and myself have noted so it's harder to bit on the signals 4 weeks out right now so I am waiting for newer GWO data to reconfirm or disprove my thoughts about S/W's beyond Feb 14, part of the reason why I left the Feb 18/19 S/W tentative because the arrival date may change +/-1 day. But tentative dates I have for other S/W's and shots of cooler air are feb 21-25 and Feb 27-March 3. And a blast from the past...for our storm So we have the xt RTW that was in the pacific back on wednesday on schedule to arrive late 24 early 25th east of the MS. Models struggling with whether it merges with a S/W from the south. That's brings the cooler air for Jan 26-29 and then of course the S/W for the 30th on the GFS that supplies the reinforcement of colder air for my Jan 31-Feb 2 time frame (this one looks like a decent shot...as I stated a couple weeks ago) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 3-4 (pre-frontal warmth) ahead of the next RWT (over India) expected to arrive Feb 4/5. (BTW I was able to narrow down the warm spike with the latest GWO numbers and RWT timing.) Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to). Then Feb 7-8 will be another 5-10 degree pre-frontal warm up ahead of another RWT (currently over Africa) and cooler air moving in behind it for Feb 9-11. So here are the dates I have for cold and warm periods...I just color codes them. LOL. Aqua-cooler Blue-colder Orange-warmer +5-10F Red-Torch +10-15F Jan 26-29 Jan 31-Feb 2 Feb 3-4 Feb 5-7 Feb 7-8 Feb 9-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Well none of the mets have answered any questions on it. We lost the mild up ..but looks like some ice events and 30's Just checking BOX NWS for us this week. Temps in the 40's's with lows in the 20's. not sure if it was supposed to be warmer than that, but we should see some snow melt this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro ENs are definetly interesting for the next week. I also wonder if Monday is not much colder than advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 13th/14th doesn't look exciting up here but what about Saturday? Some sort of coastal cyclogenesis but then ending up in Northern NH? Somehow I don't think it will happen that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The next storm seems like OTS, but it's not a given. The one after is something to watch..potentially another shot before the pattern goes to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The next storm seems like OTS, but it's not a given. The one after is something to watch..potentially another shot before the pattern goes to crap. Yeah I didn't quite understand how the Fri night/Sat system was going to evolve. Seems like a weird depiction. only day6/7 now so you'd think there would be some indication via teleconnections. I just think a coastal reforming with a storm ending up in n nh...given the deep snow pack and baraclinic zone....seeems highly unlikely.. BTW did you take Bryce out during the blizzard, hold him up to the sky and say "Behold the only thing greater than yourself?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The next storm seems like OTS, but it's not a given. The one after is something to watch..potentially another shot before the pattern goes to crap. Is there a storm threat shown on the euro ensembles around Feb 21-22? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Looks like we're on track to lose Friday. How have the ensembles been for it? Keep the OTS theme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Mid week event looks like a Pike south deal.. We have another bomb coming next weekend it appears..So two shots to look forward to...and of course the snow /ice tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 no thread for tomorrow's minor event? looks like a glacier sealer dealer to me...good for the increasing sun angle and more seasonable temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 i say will have another big snowstorm in feb and no early spring in march . I say with all this snow that will have good snowstorms in march too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z Euro ensemble mean for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steinweather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 " *** ALERT *** 12Z EURO ENSEMBLE MUCH MORE " BULLISH " THAN REGULAR ECMWF ... REGARDING ON THREAT FOR MAJOR EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FEB 16 -17" DT wxrisk.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 no thread for tomorrow's minor event? looks like a glacier sealer dealer to me...good for the increasing sun angle and more seasonable temps No one wants to talk about a potential half inch of rain right now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I was just looking at the GFS. It has 5 Nor Easters coming at us between now and the 384 hour mark. Could be a busy month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm not going to try and get too excited, but one cannot ignore the signals going forward. -NAO and one system after another. Even the torch euro ensembles trended better today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm not going to try and get too excited, but one cannot ignore the signals going forward. -NAO and one system after another. Even the torch euro ensembles trended better today. Euro ensembles were too warm for the next 7 day period anyway last week. Don't liek the AK vortex forming in the D10-15 period, but the split flow is still hinted at. I do like that high anomaly near Hudson Bay this time of year with split flow. That's a good look for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro ensembles were too warm for the next 7 day period anyway last week. Don't liek the AK vortex forming in the D10-15 period, but the split flow is still hinted at. I do like that high anomaly near Hudson Bay this time of year with split flow. That's a good look for February. Yeah I agree with the vortex, but with the split flow, the SE ridge is knocked down anyways. Could be one of those patterns that aren't cold...but maybe just enough cold to get more snow. Obviously a pretty good cold shot coming this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah I agree with the vortex, but with the split flow, the SE ridge is knocked down anyways. Could be one of those patterns that aren't cold...but maybe just enough cold to get more snow. Obviously a pretty good cold shot coming this weekend. Does it look like a good pattern here? Oh and BTW congrats on your big blizzard. One day I want to experience a storm of the magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Does it look like a good pattern here? Oh and BTW congrats on your big blizzard. One day I want to experience a storm of the magnitude. Yeah I would include YYZ too. Like I said..it may not be that cold..heck could even be a cutter or two thrown in..but it looks active I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah I would include YYZ too. Like I said..it may not be that cold..heck could even be a cutter or two thrown in..but it looks active I would say. GFS and GEfS were stormy and sounds like the euro ensembles are stormy as well so it's good that the GFS isn't all alone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS and GEfS were stormy and sounds like the euro ensembles are stormy as well so it's good that the GFS isn't all alone lol Euro ensembles have caved to the GEFS at times. It's important not to always fall in love with the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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