mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Well at least HPC mentions the Euro norester...but it is staying with the progressive pattern and a weaker storm. Unless there is a clear piece of scientific rationale that the flow temporarily slows, I would have to think this is weak, fast unphased and out to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Well at least HPC mentions the Euro norester...but it is staying with the progressive pattern and a weaker storm. Unless there is a clear piece of scientific rationale that the flow temporarily slows, I would have to think this is weak, fast unphased and out to see. GFS got a little closer, but yeah you have to wonder about the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah let's hope. I mean maybe we have that stupid cutter, but looks improved after. Yeah well the pattern for the cutter isn't very good. This thread is mostly focusing on after that period when we have the conflicting info on whether winter ends or we see a reload of the PAC pattern we saw at the end ofthe January. This time though, as you have mentioned, we get a split flow further south on the WC and start getting that southern stream active. That would certainly increase storm chances. Sure, we may risk rain, but I'll take that risk over cold and dry. Everyone wants us to forecast whether we are going to get 2 feet of snow in February or nothing...and that is simply unrealistic to do right now. Well I guess we can forecast that...but it won't be with any degree of skill or accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah well the pattern for the cutter isn't very good. This thread is mostly focusing on after that period when we have the conflicting info on whether winter ends or we see a reload of the PAC pattern we saw at the end ofthe January. This time though, as you have mentioned, we get a split flow further south on the WC and start getting that southern stream active. That would certainly increase storm chances. Sure, we may risk rain, but I'll take that risk over cold and dry. Everyone wants us to forecast whether we are going to get 2 feet of snow in February or nothing...and that is simply unrealistic to do right now. Well I guess we can forecast that...but it won't be with any degree of skill or accuracy. Yeah and that's all we are saying. We can't forecast whether or not it's an epic stretch, but you need storms to get snow lol. I know people have complained about always hearing about better chances, but that's how long range goes. Sometimes the pattern produces, sometimes they do not. As you have stated several times, there were reasons why the analogs had great years written down. I'm dying here, I'll take anything at this point....even a coastal that flips to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah and that's all we are saying. We can't forecast whether or not it's an epic stretch, but you need storms to get snow lol. I know people have complained about always hearing about better chances, but that's how long range goes. Sometimes the pattern produces, sometimes they do not. As you have stated several times, there were reasons why the analogs had great years written down. I'm dying here, I'll take anything at this point....even a coastal that flips to rain. Yep, ad there were reasons that not EVERY analog pattern produced....see the Jan '69 exampl we talked about when forecasting the pattern for Jan 2011. Some produce, and some don't. The longwave pattern had its potential, but smaller scale features and embedded shortwaves can decide the final outcome and those features are not forecastable from the long range....something a lot of posters seem unable to grasp. But I digress. The EC ensembles caving toward the GEFS as we get closer is a positive sign. I expect the GEFS to gave way some as well, but a compromise will certainly give us chances. The D11 CPC analogs are starting to show a mixed bag of very good patterns and ones that didn't produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The GEFS hint at something potentially Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The GEFS hint at something potentially Friday. Could actually be a decent event. Nice to see some moisture and southern stream energy thrown into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 My first take is groundhogs even if we establish the cold again. IE, predominately cold and dry with random mildups and wet? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Is GEFS taking a step towards the Euro? I mean I'm not expecting a slow moving 984 on Ptown given the pattern we are in. But both models have highs in good position and southern stream staring to come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Is GEFS taking a step towards the Euro? For the storm! Friday? I think we have to see 12z to make sure it wasn't an egg like the euro has laid in that time frame more than once this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Those analogs have both good and bad years. That shows you how we can role the dice. I agree with Will in that the GEFS will probably ease off the cold too, but a compromise would be ok I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 For the storm! Friday? I think we have to see 12z to make sure it wasn't an egg like the euro has laid in that time frame more than once this winter. That is my fear....we will know shortly. What does the uncle have? At least the GEFS has something, so we can start thinking about at least a region wide light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Euro is less amplified and weaker for 2/8, but it's still a good hit for CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Euro is less amplified and weaker for 2/8, but it's still a good hit for CNE/NNE. Are the GFS and Euro showing essentially the same set up? Southern stream coming to the party in a more serious way? Is the flow slowing enough? Maybe a real storm to track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The Euro goes bonkers for NNE...especially ME, but it's flooding the BL along the lower elevations with warmth. Looks a bit strange for that low placement/intensity although there is some low level warmth that advects in ahead of the nrn stream s/w before the system goes to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 yeah euro is pretty good for C/NNE with this friday deal. we'll see how the next few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Verbatim 5 days out means very little. GEFS sort of went toward the Euro in that type of setup, but I'm not even really thinking about that threat much considering how complex it is in the upper levels...Euro is relying on some subtle southern stream energy to really enhance the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The Euro goes bonkers for NNE...especially ME, but it's flooding the BL along the lower elevations with warmth. Looks a bit strange for that low placement/intensity although there is some low level warmth that advects in ahead of the nrn stream s/w before the system goes to town. Well maybe that means crashing heights during the storm. I'm just glad that last night's run wasn't a total fluke. GFS moved towards a storm. Not sure what UKIE did...and even more importantly the KMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I would bet against a wound up system in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Euro is less amplified and weaker for 2/8, but it's still a good hit for CNE/NNE.It's a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Are the GFS and Euro showing essentially the same set up? Southern stream coming to the party in a more serious way? Is the flow slowing enough? Maybe a real storm to track...They are real and they are spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 It's a bomb. Trending away already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 It's a bomb.It is eventually...just later development. The nrn stream isn't as amplified across the midwest/OH Valley so it takes a little longer for it to rapidly deepen.The only real positive to me is that the Euro at least has 2 straight runs of a decent coastal and some of the GEFS members trended that way. GFS, Ukie, and GGEM are much weaker so I think I'd lean that route for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 It is eventually...just later development. The nrn stream isn't as amplified across the midwest/OH Valley so it takes a little longer for it to rapidly deepen. The only real positive to me is that the Euro at least has 2 straight runs of a decent coastal and some of the GEFS members trended that way. GFS, Ukie, and GGEM are much weaker so I think I'd lean that route for now. Even in my weenie-ness I would have to agree with that sentiment, unless and until we get another gjobal on board for a deep coastal. Probably same old same old with progressive flow fooking it all up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Trending away already. One run is a trend? Well then GEFS are trending the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 One run is a trend? Well then GEFS are trending the other way. C'mon Steve. Euro had 1 run up our fannies, now off the coast, GEFS no way close to this kind of bomb. Not going to happen IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 C'mon Steve. Euro had 1 run up our fannies, now off the coast, GEFS no way close to this kind of bomb. Not going to happen IMHO. Yeah nothing is impossible, but the setup isn't ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 C'mon Steve. Euro had 1 run up our fannies, now off the coast, GEFS no way close to this kind of bomb. Not going to happen IMHO. Agree Jerry. Set-up is horrible for coast. This will be rain or nada,ensembles after 84 hrs are pretty horrible for snow along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Why would we see a bomb all the sudden? Not much has changed and it seems like another storm that would implode to a D-2" system about 72 hours out, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I would bet against a wound up system in this pattern. What was the intensity of the previous low we just saw cut to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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