ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 The winter, as I posted in the other thread, is shaping up a bit like 2006-07 if we believe modeling. Very mild start, then a sharp turn to colder in mid to late January with a cold/snowy February. That was an historically cold February though, whereas this one looks to be a bit closer to normal. 06-07 was remembered as a decent winter in Northern New England with the Valentine's Day/St. Patty's Day/Tax Day systems, as the period from early February to mid April was ridiculously cold and snowy. Will this winter also be remembered as the tale of two very different seasons? That year had some very good NAO blocking from late Feb into early Mar...we'll need to see that again probably to get a prolific end to winter. Also, the STJ was raging for a time. Not sure we ever get that this winter either, but its certainly possible we finish very strong this year. The southern stream should at least be more active than this winter to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Sounds like what we had in mid Jan with a meh 1-2 days 38-40 and then one awful day of 50's. hopefully we can eliminate that one roaster to protect snowpack we get tomorrow nite The fluff would be gone in a matter of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm sure he'll get this right Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN After great weather this weekend, rain seems likely a week from today, starting a warming trend. Feb 2b warmer than norm Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'm sure he'll get this right Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN After great weather this weekend, rain seems likely a week from today, starting a warming trend. Feb 2b warmer than norm Expand He'll get his mix and rain eventually! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Weeklies cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Weeklies cold? Week 3 was near normal on the height fields here but had -NAO (stubborn) and ridge in AK but -PNA signal. Week 4 still had -NAO but also lower heights near AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 So euro ensembles more or less caved to GEFS in the long range? Remember when everyone cancelled winter last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Sounds like what we had in mid Jan with a meh 1-2 days 38-40 and then one awful day of 50's. hopefully we can eliminate that one roaster to protect snowpack we get tomorrow nite I don't think anything will make a big dent in the snowpack we get tomm nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Snowpack around here means a dusting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 So euro ensembles more or less caved to GEFS in the long range? Remember when everyone cancelled winter last week? Well they caved to a point, but have a strong -PNA signal...and I don't have to tell you how we may ride the line. However, the Plains should get cold and the Euro will be wrong there for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The euro ensembles still have a nice gradient pattern over the conus. GEFS don't have that at all and drive the trough into the plains while the 00z Canadian seemed in between. Might be an interesting final 12 days or so if Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah def still some differences in the two camps...GEFS are just downright frigid across the CONUS while the Euro ensembles pump up the SE ridge. We are east of the best cold in both camps, but the Euro ensembles would be living life on the edge here with that gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah def still some differences in the two camps...GEFS are just downright frigid across the CONUS while the Euro ensembles pump up the SE ridge. We are east of the best cold in both camps, but the Euro ensembles would be living life on the edge here with that gradient. man the life boats on the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 man the life boats on the CP. I've been hearing about potential gradient patterns since Charlie Sheen was still on CBS. Not worried about it being exclusively detrimental to the CP yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Sounds like what we had in mid Jan with a meh 1-2 days 38-40 and then one awful day of 50's. hopefully we can eliminate that one roaster to protect snowpack we get tomorrow nite Don't worry about a roaster. Handle this the Jebman way: get a shovel, preferably a square edged construction shovel so you can attack the ice and pile that snow up 35 feet high! Pile it on the north side of houses, bushes, on the north facing slopes, anywhere that damned sun can't get to it! You'll save the snowpack and be the Hero that saved the Northeast. If I was up there I'd show you Northeasterners how to protect snowpack from a roaster. We Mid Atlantic'ers have to battle spring in the middle of winter every winter and we KNOW how to protect snowpack! Need deep snow shoveled? Snowblower just blew a gasket? You know who to call.......... Jeb !!!!!!!! Hell yeah! BRING IT THE HELL ON!!! I can handle northeastern blizzards! All I need is a shovel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro lost the torch overnight..and in fact delivers a wintry appeal event next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro lost the torch overnight..and in fact delivers a wintry appeal event next week Ensembles are mild though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The longer range post mid month is still a little dicey for my liking. Even the GEFS aren't the greatest lookin, but that's a lot of colder air coming into the US. We'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Ensembles are mild though.Not worried. Euro is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Not worried. Euro is back The euro has a one day torch and then a mild down just not a big torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro ensembles are just not quite biting on the amplitude of the AK/NW Canada riding...the 00z suite actually looked a bit less than the last run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The euro has a one day torch and then a mild down just not a big torch.Looks like one day 45-50 on Euro then 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Scooter would the event early next week be a mix or rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Scooter would the event early next week be a mix or rain? Depends on the model. 06z GFS is a torch then follow up snow day 8. Euro is torch than fropa followed up a wave in la la land post day 10. Euro ensembles are a torch too followed by something mixed near day 10. Basically, the flow behind the warm up is confusing thanks to the cutoff in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I think we will turn more stormy, the question we have is our cold source. This could be great for the Plains and MW..potentially here if the GEFS are right. But the Euro and now Canadian have a strong -PNA signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 I think we will turn more stormy, the question we have is our cold source. This could be great for the Plains and MW..potentially here if the GEFS are right. But the Euro and now Canadian have a strong -PNA signal. Did you see the 06z GFS in the LR? For entertainment purposes only....that would be a very nice looking negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Did you see the 06z GFS in the LR? For entertainment purposes only....that would be a very nice looking negative PNA. Yeah that -NAO would do wonders. We'll need that. If I had to guess, I think the Canadian ensembles would be a compromise. Euro ensembles with the SW cutoff bias (it exists even in ensembles) and GEFS with the progressive bias. It does look conducive for storm threats IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 12z GEFS look nice after mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Southern stream working its magic on the Euro...not just for the Feb 8-9 storm, but again for Feb 13-14. Much stormier pattern shaping up, which is what we were thinking when we saw the southern stream and Pacific beginning to stir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The torch next week has vanishrd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.