Ed Lizard Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looking at the obs thread, the impression I got growing up in Nassau Shores (Massapequa, 11758) that we were always least likely to get snow of anyone w/i 50 miles was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 "It seems to happen almost every year. Due to lack of knowledge, many people view the 0C 850 mb isotherm as a "wall" or "barricade" to rain. "If I'm north of that, I'm safe." It's just not the case. I think this is a 4-8 inch storm with almost all of it coming after 10PM as the OH valley system heads east and essentially helps form a nice deformation band on the western flank of the system. Unfortunately, this was a very complex evolution and even the Euro had problems with it. NAM output from 00z last night was a joke, btw" Storm at sea was all over this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 "It seems to happen almost every year. Due to lack of knowledge, many people view the 0C 850 mb isotherm as a "wall" or "barricade" to rain. "If I'm north of that, I'm safe." It's just not the case. I think this is a 4-8 inch storm with almost all of it coming after 10PM as the OH valley system heads east and essentially helps form a nice deformation band on the western flank of the system. Unfortunately, this was a very complex evolution and even the Euro had problems with it. NAM output from 00z last night was a joke, btw" Storm at sea was all over this thing. It wasn't a 4-8" storm though, so he busted there. Central Long Island has had 30", Westchester and NNJ has had 15", and NYC proper has had close to 12"...he wavered a lot during the event as well, and was much too conservative on amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It wasn't a 4-8" storm though, so he busted there. Central Long Island has had 30", Westchester and NNJ has had 15", and NYC proper has had close to 12"...he wavered a lot during the event as well, and was much too conservative on amounts. I was being sarcastic...very sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 So is the winter cancel officially cancelled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 40-50 inch winter incoming for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Neg nao and Kasper FTL on last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Neg nao and Kasper FTL on last storm Hahah yup. And if nor'easter posted you can guarantee it woulda said "BL gets torched by east winds; rain then maybe 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Henry FTL. He was calling for a coating to an inch for NYC with the last storm. WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Henry FTL. He was calling for a coating to an inch for NYC with the last storm. WTF Ya we all know he's a clown. It seems like he's literally off in every situation. Predicts big snow when it's clearly not happening and goes against the grain in big events predicting very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hahah yup. And if nor'easter posted you can guarantee it woulda said "BL gets torched by east winds; rain then maybe 1-3" Nor'easter is banned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nor'easter is banned Ya not surprised. His sandy bs was probably the worst I've seen any poster attempt to predict Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ya not surprised. His sandy bs was probably the worst I've seen any poster attempt to predict Can't wait for the post wed night that read "snowing harder then it did all last event" be from the usual suspects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Can't wait for the post wed night that read "snowing harder then it did all last event" be from the usual suspects Lol yup. I think people forgot that for a wide area 10-15 was the most nws predicting. We verified on the low end in many areas, but getting 10in from a snowstorm is nothing to sneeze at, especially in the manner it did falling in many areas exclusively on the backside. Unparalleled really at least in the past 25 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Henry FTL. He was calling for a coating to an inch for NYC with the last storm. WTF That was classic remember the thread i started looks like JB for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like wind shift line is on PA/NJ border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Good, can't wait for the front to pass so we can cool down and get this fog out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's incredible how much of a beating the snow pack has taken in 2 short days. We had about 13" here from the storm and I'd say we are down to about 1/3 of it being left. It was supposed to go down to the mid to upper 20's last night per the forecast, but it never dropped below the mid-30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Holy heck there was some sh8tty analysis in the model V-Day model thread this morning. Glad it turned out well tho... for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wow, there's a major upgrade (4DVAR) coming to the GGEM starting with the 12z run tomorrow. From Ellinwood in the main forum: http://dd.weatheroff..._071810___00179 MAJOR UPGRADE TO THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM GDPS-VERSION 3.0.0) AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTREON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 13, 2013, STARTING WITH THE 1200 UTC RUN, THECANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICEOF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT VERSION 3.0.0 OF ITS GLOBALDETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS), HEREAFTER REFERRED TO ASGDPS-3.0.0. THE MAIN CHANGES OF THIS UPDATE ARE:- CHANGES TO THE 4D-VAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM: - THE USE OFADDITIONAL REMOTE SENSING DATA: - AN INCREASE IN HORIZONTALRESOLUTION FROM 33 TO 25 KM: - IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE GEM MODELPHYSICS: - AND 1200 UTC RUNS NOW DONE TO 240 HOURS AS FOR 0000 UTCRUNS.OBJECTIVE SCORES DONE IN DEVELOPMENT AND PARALLEL RUN PHASES SHOWIMPROVEMENTS IN THE FORECASTS WITH MOST METRICS THROUGHOUT MOST OFTHE ATMOSPHERE, IN PARTICULAR OVER NORTH AMERICA IN WINTER. THESEIMPROVEMENTS ARE OF AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE USUALLY SEEN ONLY ONCE INA DECADE. A SUBJECTIVE EVALUATION BY OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGISTS ATCMC CONFIRMED THOSE IMPROVEMENTS. OTHER FORECAST SYSTEMS WHICHDEPEND ON GDPS OUTPUT ALSO BENEFIT FROM THE GDPS-3.0.0. CHANGESWERE MADE TO THE REGIONAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (RDPS) TOHARMONIZE IT WITH THE NEW GDPS, AND THE RDPS FORECASTS ARE ALSOIMPROVED AS A RESULT, SO ITS VERSION NUMBER IS ALSO INCREASED TO3.1.0, AND IS HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS RDPS-3.1.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I can't believe how viral it went; Mike Favetta(meteorologist on News 12 Bronx/Brooklyn) posted this on my FB wall this morning and I told him that the NAM should be in there as well since it's been in left field lately. I then just cloned(pretty horribly) the "GFS" desk in Photoshop, renamed it the NAM and then did a simple Google search for "Ralph Wiggum black and white"; I just superimposed him on there and the rest is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Right after Henry mentioned about the big storm this weekend, the GFS and Euro went to ****. What a jinx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If I get 4 inches tomorrow night, that's a major fail by the euro. No way to spin it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I can't believe how viral it went; Mike Favetta(meteorologist on News 12 Bronx/Brooklyn) posted this on my FB wall this morning and I told him that the NAM should be in there as well since it's been in left field lately. I then just cloned(pretty horribly) the "GFS" desk in Photoshop, renamed it the NAM and then did a simple Google search for "Ralph Wiggum black and white"; I just superimposed him on there and the rest is history. Well done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well done Thanks, but we are dumb for not putting our names on it though. D'Oh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Thanks, but we are dumb for not putting our names on it though. D'Oh! Im not impressed until you steal money from Jake and then create a meme that gets your pic in the paper..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Im not impressed until you steal money from Jake and then create a meme that gets your pic in the paper..... Joe did pay him back, right? I'm perfectly happy with being a (mostly silent)part of a weather meme that went viral today; this way no one will bother me and I can go on hiding underground again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Right after Henry mentioned about the big storm this weekend, the GFS and Euro went to ****. What a jinx. Might as well message him and demand him to be silent on the 1/22 threat. By the way, how long is NorEaster27 banned for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Anybody who grew up in the 70's in NYC will like this http://donswaim.com/wcbs-gordon-barnes-2-9-75.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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