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January 21/22 Storm Obs/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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I am surprised that Matt Noyes just said a C-2 for Boston. What do you guys think?

 

He's obviously putting a lot of faith in the Euro, which is a decent move.  Like I said, maybe I'll be wrong but I don't believe the NCEP stuff, coating to a few 2-3" down here, if we got more than 3" I'd be both happy and pretty surprised.

 

The stuff developing along the south coast moves east and out overnight, then we're left watching a band hopefully move down from the NNE.   

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He's obviously putting a lot of faith in the Euro, which is a decent move.  Like I said, maybe I'll be wrong but I don't believe the NCEP stuff, coating to a few 2-3" down here, if we got more than 3" I'd be both happy and pretty surprised.

 

The stuff developing along the south coast moves east and out overnight, then we're left watching a band hopefully move down from the NNE.   

you probably already have 1/4"

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you probably already have 1/4"

 

Just under 1/4" I'm home now and just drove right down Rte 3 from Boston.  I doubt there's more than a dusting to a 1/4 of an inch anywhere in that stretch.  At Derby Street there was the lightest of dustings, at Exit 5 a dusting (we stopped at both for errands).  Just flurries/light snow here now.

 

I think we'll get an inch or so from this first burst, and then be left looking NE as the second band rotates down.  I'm just not sure it hits my area, I'm with Noyes on this one.   I'll back away, that's my opinion and I may be wrong.  I've only barely looked at the models in the last two days, just wasn't sold on this one.

 

 

 

The stuff over me now develops for a few hours for sure.

 

The other day when the Euro was too aggressive it was obvious.  Unless I'm really missing something the NAM had .1+ down here by 0z on the 12z, and the 18z was keeping most of that stuff south before developing the band as it moves across MA.  Busting from 12z, 18z was a little better.

 

I haven't followed the posts been driving but thought I saw the HRRR posted with lots of snow down here.  The Dev version was spot on the other night, it's not very impressive here overnight.

 

Final call MBY is a coating to 2 or 3 inches due to uncertainty.

 

Enjoy the "storm" will check in when I break an inch in a few hours.  Just my opinion, I may be wrong.

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