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Winter storm threat disc 1/25/13-1/26/13


Allsnow

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:(

 

That's what no -NAO does to us. Nothing at all to stop it from becoming more amplified and ultimately cutting. Hopefully we at least get something for all the cold air initially and some snow, but for the coast the cold gets easily pushed out. Inland probably goes snow to ice.

 

We need the Euro to be too strong and have the wave less amplified so it transfers to the coast  further south.

But amplified solutions without a good -NAO will always ride to close to the coast for here on Long Island.

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I highly disagree unless this is SE of the benchmark the immediate coast has trouble. It has been a terrible winter here with just .9 not including November.

 

Much of that is dependent upon the amount of cold air in place to the north...I've seen eastbound mid latitude cyclones pass off the Jersey shore in the vicinity of Long Branch where the NYC metro area remained all snow...like in March 8, 1984...clearly a tight thermal gradient...but the area stayed north of the warm front and the wind shift line. 

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Much of that is dependent upon the amount of cold air in place to the north...I've seen eastbound mid latitude cyclones pass off the Jersey shore in the vicinity of Long Branch where the NYC metro area remained all snow...like in March 8, 1984...clearly a tight thermal gradient...but the area stayed north of the warm front and the wind shift line. 

 

 

All depends on how deep your low to the west and synoptic setup is for sure...1/17/94, 12/14/89 and 1/3/99 are all examples of how we can go from 10 degrees to 45 in 6 hours if the setup sucks.

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DGEX has another significant event for Saturday as it develops a low over the southeast and bombs it as it heads north, giving significant snow (about 3 inches for NE NJ, 6 inches for NYC, and a blizzard for eastern Long Island with a foot of snow as it deepens the low to 971mb SE of Cape Cod, then to 961mb east of Cape Cod). Too bad it won't really happen, but it sure looks pretty.

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18z depicts a 24hr long duration event despite its .5 QPF up to NYC. I'll take it.

 

Yeah QPF isn't amazing but it lasts for a while. 

 

Next weekend looks really cold again...850s of -14C with snow cover. Not as powerful as the mid-week cold shot but still impressive, and snow cover with clearer skies should make for better radiating conditions. 

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This solution makes more sense than much of the 12z data, due to the tendency of modelling to drive sfc lows to the north at the first "detected" sign of weakness in the flow. In the medium range, models will often find a weakness and underestimate the cold air damming, and shove the low northward as if it's a swinging door, when in reality, it's a brick wall. There will be an antecedent arctic airmass and arctic air immediately following the short wave - it's an arctic sandwich. Makes zero sense to drive a sfc low to Erie PA with the sprawling PV in Eastern Canada and strong low level cold.

 

Look to see 00z data begin to move a bit further south though I doubt we'll see a consensus on this for a few more days, which will be a more suppressed solution in my opinion. One that may provide the area with the largest in winter snowfall since 2010-11 (greater than a few inches).

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The key is the weaker less amplified solution so CAD wins out. It just  makes me a little nervous

that the GFS is showing this with its bias to suppress the SE Ridge. We'll see how it goes.

 

 

If the SE ridge can win out w/ a -20c antecedent airmass, then we've got a real issue here. I feel strongly that the warm/rainy solutions will be wrong here, but we'll see. Better chance of a MA hit and NYC miss than rain in my view.

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If the SE ridge can win out w/ a -20c antecedent airmass, then we've got a real issue here. I feel strongly that the warm/rainy solutions will be wrong here, but we'll see. Better chance of a MA hit and NYC miss than rain in my view.

 

I think that it all depends on how amplified  the system when it ejects out into the Plains. We had a much colder pattern

ahead of 1-17-94 but the low still cut in with a more amplified pattern. We probably have to wait for the energy to get

sampled near the West Coast in a few days to know for sure.

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