SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 There is definitely some weak blocking over greenland holding the 50/50 in place looking at the 500mb NHEM maps. It's not a strong -NAO though edit: what i mean is it's not strong enough to guarantee a snowy solution right now I don't think we're gonna get much of a block, what will likely help us if we do ultimately get a snow event will be the bombing low sort of slowing that big arctic high from getting out of dodge. That airmass is going to be very hard to move, you'd probably need a sub 990mb low to develop over the Midwest and I don't know if the pattern really supports that from what I'm seeing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 So we have 3 models amped and way west and the Euro fast flowed and SE.....the euro is gonna lose again How long have you been following model runs and have been on this site?..In the 6-7 day period euro is superior by far..not saying it's right..but i would trust it more that the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 There is definitely some weak blocking over greenland holding the 50/50 in place looking at the 500mb NHEM maps. It's not a strong -NAO though edit: what i mean is it's not strong enough to guarantee a snowy solution right now Yeah, we may have to rely on the wave coming out less amplified so it stays all cold. But the tradeoff will be less precip with a weaker system. But it could still could be a decent light to moderate event for some should that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The 12z Euro ENS have the signal for this storm. Obviously quite a bit of a spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GGEM ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 18z GFS, snow changes to rain, low sits over NYC at hr 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 18z GFS, snow changes to rain, low sits over NYC at hr 156 The primary transferring to the secondary was a bit too late this run. Some solid overrunning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Secondary low does not form in time. Primary is way too dominant in this run, northern stream too strong. Bad run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS has rain while the Euro has snow with temps in the 20s. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 18z GFS, snow changes to rain, low sits over NYC at hr 156 That Op run makes no sense, the primary transfers to a coastal then the primary re-takes back over again off New England....the GFS clearly wants to go Miller B on this but its having a tough time showing a true Miller B transfer right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Secondary low does not form in time. Primary is way too dominant in this run, northern stream too strong. Bad run... Almost all of the QPF falls before the changeover...it's a fine run. Remember, the frame shows the position of the 0C line at the end of that time frame, but the majority of the precip falls before the 0C isotherm gets that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Almost all of the QPF falls before the changeover...it's a fine run. Remember, the frame shows the position of the 0C line at the end of that time frame, but the majority of the precip falls before the 0C isotherm gets that far north. Oh, didn't know that, well that's some good news. Even so, 850 0C line is just south of LI at hr 150, then it's just over LI at hr 156, there will be mixing issues at some point if that happens. I wouldn't mind if we mix, as long as it's all frozen (freezing rain/sleet) given the cold denser air that this storm is running into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Almost all of the QPF falls before the changeover...it's a fine run. Remember, the frame shows the position of the 0C line at the end of that time frame, but the majority of the precip falls before the 0C isotherm gets that far north. GFS wants to torch the surface. So its more rain, at least at the coast, than the 850 line would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS wants to torch the surface. So its more rain, at least at the coast, than the 850 line would suggest. yeah surface temps mostly mid 30s..still a better run than earlier and many more shifts I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Its 150 hrs out i dont thnk anyone nd debate precip type. Theres pretty good agreement ths doesnt go to the lakes. And the gfs operationals r warmer than its ensembles. And the euro. Theres goin to b a ton of cold air to displace. I would b more comfortable once inside 72 hrs talking rain snow line. I like the trend over the last 3 days and thnk ths far out you just need to see if the models continue. In ths direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 GFS wants to torch the surface. So its more rain, at least at the coast, than the 850 line would suggest. Let me ask you a fast question Ray...you don't mind me calling you Ray? What do you really make of these back to back winters...NYC with 5 inches for each...Philly with close to that last year and less than an inch in this one...I mean we know the climate...it's no snow paradise...but it used to get its storms...even in the bad years...couple inches here...couple inches there...the forecast six to ten would only produce three...but it was three more than this year. What is your take on all off this as a top climate man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Let me ask you a fast question Ray...you don't mind me calling you Ray? What do you really make of these back to back winters...NYC with 5 inches for each...Philly with close to that last year and less than an inch in this one...I mean we know the climate...it's no snow paradise...but it used to get its storms...even in the bad years...couple inches here...couple inches there...the forecast six to ten would only produce three...but it was three more than this year. What is your take on all off this as a top climate man? I would chalk up the last two winters to random chance... though I agree with others that there's a lot of potential for the next few weeks to be productive around NYC and for this winter to not go down as god-aweful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I would chalk up the last two winters to random chance... though I agree with others that there's a lot of potential for the next few weeks to be productive around NYC and for this winter to not go down as god-aweful. I thought the same...just as when we had very good winters...I attributed much of it to luck & good fortune. Even in patterns that seem ripe with potential, having the misfortune of having one piece of the puzzle missing can throw the whole thing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I would chalk up the last two winters to random chance... though I agree with others that there's a lot of potential for the next few weeks to be productive around NYC and for this winter to not go down as god-aweful. You gotta figure you get winters like 95-96 and 09-10 where everything possible seems to go right you also have to get some where everything finds a way to go wrong and I guess you can get 2 of them back to back. I don't feel exceptionally good about these 2 possible events since everything has managed to go wrong so far and it always seems when you're in that sort of rut it keeps going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Just a matter of time. If you believe in the law of averages like I do.. then we will get our MECS or HECS by the end of this winter or next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 You gotta figure you get winters like 95-96 and 09-10 where everything possible seems to go right you also have to get some where everything finds a way to go wrong and I guess you can get 2 of them back to back. I don't feel exceptionally good about these 2 possible events since everything has managed to go wrong so far and it always seems when you're in that sort of rut it keeps going. after 1995-96 we got three clunkers and one mediocre...2009-10 and 2010-11 were the two snowiest seasons back to back...1996-97 and 1997-98 are the two least snowiest back to back belly to belly winters with 15.5"...So far 2011-12 and this year have 12.5"...we need 3.1" not to break that record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 You gotta figure you get winters like 95-96 and 09-10 where everything possible seems to go right you also have to get some where everything finds a way to go wrong and I guess you can get 2 of them back to back. I don't feel exceptionally good about these 2 possible events since everything has managed to go wrong so far and it always seems when you're in that sort of rut it keeps going. I'm not expecting any blockbusters in the next few weeks, but a couple of 3-6" events would keep this winter out of the "god-aweful" ranks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 GFS has rain while the Euro has snow with temps in the 20s. lol. Some kind of middle ground would be nice. Looking at 18Z AccuWx PPV 2 meter temps, FRG and ISP are well into the 40s, despite what look like favorable 850 mb temps and 1000-500 mb thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'm not expecting any blockbusters in the next few weeks, but a couple of 3-6" events would keep this winter out of the "god-aweful" ranks. 1985-86 was hideous until the first half of February...after that it was worse...This winter is like 1931-32 so far...If 2012-13 plays out like that one did we will get cold in Mid February and March...Not much snow if any... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 after 1995-96 we got three clunkers and one mediocre...2009-10 and 2010-11 were the two snowiest seasons back to back...1996-97 and 1997-98 are the two least snowiest back to back belly to belly winters with 15.5"...So far 2011-12 and this year have 12.5"...we need 3.1" not to break that record... Its crazy how close we've come the last 20 years to pretty much owning the top 10 snowless winters...91-92 I think entered March at about 3 inches, 94-95 was saved by one storm, 97-98 saved at the last minute by a fluke storm, I think we had 0.5 inches as of 3/20, 07-08 also looked dead in the water til the surprise overrunning event. I think eventually Central Park will have a winter with 1 inch or less of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I believe to the north and west of philly,new york and especially boston may get average snow. The cities will need a good march to do that in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Its crazy how close we've come the last 20 years to pretty much owning the top 10 snowless winters...91-92 I think entered March at about 3 inches, 94-95 was saved by one storm, 97-98 saved at the last minute by a fluke storm, I think we had 0.5 inches as of 3/20, 07-08 also looked dead in the water til the surprise overrunning event. I think eventually Central Park will have a winter with 1 inch or less of snow. 1997-98 had a few slushy events in December where I live on Staten Island...The March storm was less than 3" where I live...it was 90 on 3/31/98 imby...winter to summer in nine days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 1985-86 was hideous until the first half of February...after that it was worse...This winter is like 1931-32 so far...If 2012-13 plays out like that one did we will get cold in Mid February and March...Not much snow if any... Yep...that was the only good part of the winter ...a storm on 2/8/86 and another on 2/11/86...4 or 5 inches with each...KNYC had 9.9" for February...not far from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I believe to the north and west of philly,new york and especially boston may get average snow. The cities will need a good march to do that in my opinion. Yeah, I'm not talking about getting this winter up average in the cities, but if NYC could get more than 10" on the season it would be out of the "god aweful" ranks, IMHO. Central Park has had 9 winters with less than 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Yeah, I'm not talking about getting this winter up average in the cities, but if NYC could get more than 10" on the season it would be out of the "god aweful" ranks, IMHO. Central Park has had 9 winters with less than 10". 15 and under is always recalled as a terrible winter...no matter how cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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