FreeRain Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 This solution makes more sense than much of the 12z data, due to the tendency of modelling to drive sfc lows to the north at the first "detected" sign of weakness in the flow. In the medium range, models will often find a weakness and underestimate the cold air damming, and shove the low northward as if it's a swinging door, when in reality, it's a brick wall. There will be an antecedent arctic airmass and arctic air immediately following the short wave - it's an arctic sandwich. Makes zero sense to drive a sfc low to Erie PA with the sprawling PV in Eastern Canada and strong low level cold. Look to see 00z data begin to move a bit further south though I doubt we'll see a consensus on this for a few more days, which will be a more suppressed solution in my opinion. One that may provide the area with the largest in winter snowfall since 2010-11 (greater than a few inches). Makes sense. I don't see the sfc low passing over Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 There could be a very nice present for everyone here interestingly if this system does ultimately go north with the northern wave amplifying. By this I mean way north and west, probably over Michigan, this would likely not force the trough off the East Coast and would allow that 2nd southern disturbance to blow up and come up the coast as a big storm from DC to Boston...the first storm being a more true SWFE track near or just south of us forces the trough east and we miss the 2nd storm...just an interesting idea that if we do get screwed on the first wave we could have something waiting with that 2nd one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 There could be a very nice present for everyone here interestingly if this system does ultimately go north with the northern wave amplifying. By this I mean way north and west, probably over Michigan, this would likely not force the trough off the East Coast and would allow that 2nd southern disturbance to blow up and come up the coast as a big storm from DC to Boston...the first storm being a more true SWFE track near or just south of us forces the trough east and we miss the 2nd storm...just an interesting idea that if we do get screwed on the first wave we could have something waiting with that 2nd one. The irony of this winter has been: Get screwed by the first wave and close call with the second. Maybe this time there'll be a hit because of better upper air features. For starters a very good PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think that it all depends on how amplified the system when it ejects out into the Plains. We had a much colder pattern ahead of 1-17-94 but the low still cut in with a more amplified pattern. We probably have to wait for the energy to get sampled near the West Coast in a few days to know for sure. Agree. If the s/w is more amplified than progged, there's a much greater probability of it breaking through the cold dome and running way inland. However given the current progged intensity, a northern solution seems unlikely to me. Either way it's nice to finally have a winter week coming up, with a system to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 18z depicts a 24hr long duration event despite its .5 QPF up to NYC. I'll take it. First off, i doubt this even lasts 24 hours. I know this isn't your traditional Miller A type situation, but with a neutral NAO I would say 18 hours MAXIMUM. However, if a secondary does get cranking, I too feel that .5 QPF is VERY LOW considering the fact that sea surface temps are pretty warm. This can be one of those storms, in my opinion, and if everything goes PERFECT, where we can see 1" per hour maybe more for 4-6 hours at the height of the storm for some. Hopefully my thinking verifies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 First off, i doubt this even lasts 24 hours. I know this isn't your traditional Miller A type situation, but with a neutral NAO I would say 18 hours MAXIMUM. However, if a secondary does get cranking, I too feel that .5 QPF is VERY LOW considering the fact that sea surface temps are pretty warm. This can be one of those storms, in my opinion, and if everything goes PERFECT, where we can see 1" per hour maybe more for 4-6 hours at the height of the storm for some. Hopefully my thinking verifies.... We've had plenty of long duration events with the absence of a -nao. I can think of several in 1994. Plus, if timed well, the PV itself acts as the block. It does transfer, but the end result is a weak system the looks to rob some moisture from us, thus explaining the light qpf. If we could get a fast and beefier transfer from the weak primary then yes, we're in business. But like Isotherm mentioned earlier, this system has better chance of being suppressed by the PV so a juicier solution would be needed to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Gfs is slower with the storm so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Hr 105 low looks a tad further south. Over NE Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Hr 111 low over central ky. Plenty cold out front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Hr 117 light snow. Storm slower and a tad further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Hr 120 storm over lower Delmarva. Mod snow for area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Thanks for the pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Hr 120 storm over lower Delmarva. Mod snow for area Won't be any mixing this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Big hit at hr 123 storm just se of acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Man this is so close to something bigger. .50+ all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Won't be any mixing this run...[/quote Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Man this is so close to something bigger. .50+ all snow On this run the heaviest qpf is from s-nj into dc. So far a nice trend tonight with the 0z guidance. Fri pm into sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Need to make sure that southern low manages to outrun and stay away from that other weak clipper diving into Minnesota, if those 2 merge we're f------ if you know what I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It's a great run but I remain worrisome. Sometimes when we're in a rut, the duds keep coming but it only takes one solid storm to change a bad luck streak so fingers crossed for this one. This is going to be our last chance until early February most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Beautiful run. Probably 5-7" for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 SV maps 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Noone should be thinking about P-Type or QPF ATM. Just the set up; N/S flow, NAO, PV and of course the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 NOGAPS still likes that more NW solution though this is the most progressive run its had in the last 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Triple phase incoming at 252??? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Triple phase incoming at 252??? Lol The models have shown from time to time a second threat beyond Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Though 96 hours the GEM looks like it may be going way north, hard to tell so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The 00z GFS has 0.50" + for the whole region. Ratios would be excellent for the northern and western zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Triple phase incoming at 252??? Lol Way too warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 GEM is 8 hours of snow over to sleet then ending as light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The GFS looks like it'll spit out 8-12" for the nearby N&W areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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