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klw

NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III

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Not really, the closed circulation should ring out most of the LL moisture.

Agreed.

 

As for the LP/KSLK area: Not sure what you plan on skiing/doing but the base is really really thin in the BC.  As in "non-existant" in some places. 

With 15+ to 1 snow ratios this isn't going to "open" a lot of new terrain. Should make WF great skiing. 

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Agreed.

As for the LP/KSLK area: Not sure what you plan on skiing/doing but the base is really really thin in the BC. As in "non-existant" in some places.

With 15+ to 1 snow ratios this isn't going to "open" a lot of new terrain. Should make WF great skiing.

Gonna try to get some time on the face but mostly just going to get away w the family, empire state winter games and luge world cup thus weekend.

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Note: ratios will be very high in NNE. Wouldn't be surprised for 20:1.

 

But please, for your own sanity, if you're in northern VT/NY temper expectations. You will be disappointed in this set up if you don't, especially with all the hype/potential in SNE.

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Note: ratios will be very high in NNE. Wouldn't be surprised for 20:1.

 

But please, for your own sanity, if you're in northern VT/NY temper expectations. You will be disappointed in this set up if you don't, especially with all the hype/potential in SNE.

Wait you mean you are not buying the Nam's 2+ feet for all of VT and 60+ inches for the coast of Maine? ^_^

post-1533-0-32005000-1360164802_thumb.gi

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Thank god there's like that inverted trough feature being modeled which still could bring some decent totals (not 2 feet), but add 15:1 ratios to 0.75" QPF or something and that could be decent.

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Good discussion from BTV.  I like the explanation they give about holding off on warnings.

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH PHASING OF COASTAL SYSTEM WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE NAM CONTS TO BE THE FURTHEST EAST AND
WEAKEST WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHILE GFS/ECMWF TAKE DEVELOPING
LOW PRES VERY CLOSE TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z SAT. STILL
THINKING INTERACTION/PHASING OF SYSTEM TAKES PLACE TOO FAR EAST TO
PRODUCE A BLOCK-BLUSTER SNOW STORM FOR OUR CWA...BUT STILL FEEL A
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW DEEP LAYER RH AND OMEGA IN FAVORABLE
SNOW GROWTH REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW
RATIO`S AT 15 OR 20 TO 1. ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED QPF ACRS
OUR CWA FOR THE EVENT AND NOW HAS AROUND 0.30" NW CWA TO 0.75"
SOUTHEAST ZNS...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON TRACK OF LOW PRES
NEAR THE BENCHMARK. ALSO...ALWAYS CONCERNED WHEN NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY QUICKLY JUMPS TO THE COAST AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS...WHICH CAN LIMIT QPF ACRS OUR CWA. STILL WE HAVE A
FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH POTENT 5H S/W
ENERGY AND GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WHICH WL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD PLOWABLE SNOWFALL. GIVEN A 18 TO 30 HOUR WINDOW BTWN
BOTH SYSTEMS AND NEEDING 9 INCHES OR MORE IN 24HRS...PARTS OF OUR
CWA WL HAVE DIFFICULTIES REACHING WARNING CRITERIA...BEST
POTENTIAL WL BE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT AND PARTS OF THE DACKS. STILL
HIGH FLUFF FACTOR WL PROBABLY RESULT IN GETTING THE MOST SNOWFALL
OUT OF QPF BTWN 0.25" AND 0.75". WL MENTION CAT POPS SE ZNS TO HIGH
CHC ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MTN CHC POPS FOR SAT...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/LIFT. GIVEN...5H/7H CLOSED CIRCULATIONS
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES TRACKS MAINLY EAST AND NOT INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE...WL LIMIT UPSLOPE/WRAP AROUND QPF ACRS OUR CWA ON
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF/SNOW WL BE LIGHT. TEMPS WL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...MAINLY TEENS...AND IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S ON SATURDAY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS.
 

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I would think you will be okay.  I don't think the NW winds will put wind holds on Saturday but Powderfreak would know much better than me!

 

I have absolutely no idea what wind direction affects them most... but honestly, with a big hype snowstorm coming, even if the ski areas may not be in the sweetest spot, they're going to do everything in their power to stay open.

 

I honestly haven't looked at wind that much though nor do I know anything about that mountain.  I just know that no one wants to close in a snowstorm, so it would take some pretty high winds, lol.

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Had few flurries around this morning but nothing more at the house but ran into a nice burst of fat flakes up on the heights above us (1800').

 

Looks like a squall is headed in though.

 

One day at a time, yo.

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Any chance Attitash closes on Saturday? I have lift passes

If wind is very high Bretton Woods is the least likely to be affected.  You could drive there during the day if Attitash happens to go on hold.

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Euro kills NNE

 

 

Please elaborate

Yes, please elaborate.  Kills NNE as in crushes us with snow or kills us as in having to watch something epic so close yet have nothing to show for it?

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0.75" to Sherbrook, QC

1.00" Canadian border

1.25" RUT-LEB-BML

1.5" PSF-EEN-PLY

1.75" CON-Gray, ME

2.00" coastal NH-ME

 

Ratios probably 12-15:1 for CNE, 15-18:1 NNE

Ah, the good kind of kill!  Much appreciated.  Have fun forecasting this for VTRANS.

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0.75" to Sherbrook, QC

1.00" Canadian border

1.25" RUT-LEB-BML

1.5" PSF-EEN-PLY

1.75" CON-Gray, ME

2.00" coastal NH-ME

 

Ratios probably 12-15:1 for CNE, 15-18:1 NNE

I really appreciate your attention to NNE, ct. Hard to feel the love on the other threads...lol!

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